Apple Isle Showdown: Tas Govt threatens to end Hawks, North deals if no plan for 19th side

[Tonatopia]

As numerous people have said - IF it happens, it will be one team, based in Hobart, playing out of both Hobart and Launceston, following the pretty damn successful model set by the Hurricanes in the BBL.

Ok, Ill stay on point.

Lets jump in our time machine to 2041.

We have 22 teams in the AFL, including Darwin, Canberra, Cairns and Tasmania.
We have a final 10 and the bottom 8 or so teams just play for the fun of it. Anyway......

Hobart population has grown to 300,000+ people
Hobart has an AFL stadium with 40k capacity and 40k membership base for the State team.

Launceston is offered 2 token games per season, (against GWS and GC), and no further investment is made into York Park with a limited capacity of 25k.
Launceston population grows to 180,000, The same size as Cairns and Darwin, which both have sides.
Devonport and Burnie's population grow to a combined 75,000 people, and the entire Nth Tasmanian region is now 300k+ strong.

Is this not a reasonable prediction?

 

[fargothegreat]

Its home will be Tasmania. Train & live around Hobart. Play bigger games in Launceston. Engage in Communities from Smithton to Dover, Strahan to Swansea.

The best comparison is to look at what West Coast, Brisbane and Adelaide were when they entered the comp.

Based in one city, but represented their whole state. "Our home is here in Queensland and we're playing for our state". "We're the pride of South Australia", etc.

West Coast didnt enter the comp as Perth. This isn't new.

 

[telsor]

You're not a visionary, you're a dangerous heretic!

Whatever the benefits, I think the factor of cost, particularly transport & accommodation costs for players & supporters, let alone paying players enough, will be the killer of a divisional structure.

Yep.

As has been noted previously, the income disparity between the AFL and whatever second (let alone 3rd, 4th, etc) division comp might be created would make promotion/relegation a pipe dream.

A club with (next to) no TV coverage would struggle for sponsors and crowds/fans. ( e.g. current day WAFL/SANFL/VFL ) just wont have the salary capacity.
You can't just jump from $500K (if that) to $10M in a year and have a competitive team (e.g. GWS, GC), and the income of lower div teams just wouldn't support any more (without unfeasibly large subsidies)

Conversely, clubs dropping a grade would have millions in ongoing player contracts, and while some they could probably offload onto the newly promoted club (hey, new club, same players!) they'd still be left with enough to both drive them broke and trounce the opposition, meaning they'd likely be promoted again the following year, but be in a worse condition as a result. End result would be a few clubs at the bottom that would be uncompetitive in the top grade, and dominant in the second, just rotating between leagues.

I see the NT has lodged a bid for an AFL licence. They note the massive social/community benefit of such a team. Indeed they acknowledge the funding shortfall issue, but will apply on the basis of its community benefit!!

It'll be interesting to see how 'The Boys Club' receive such an application!!!!

As I recall, one of the few powers the clubs retain with the commission is adding (and removing) teams and a 2/3rds majority is required to add/remove a club.

I find it hard to believe that 12 clubs would agree to adding a new club that would, in effect, cost them all money unless a huge amount of work went into convincing (bribing) them. With GC/GWS it was a promise of long term gain and a commitment to equalisation in the short/medium term. I doubt 'social/community benefit' in a region a long way away from the clubs in question would have the same impact.

As I've said a number of times about a Tas club, a new club needs to not just be viable, it needs to make the league stronger in order to be a good chance to get included. An extra mouth at a table of the hungry isn't welcome for long unless they bring more food than they eat.

 

[madmug]

The best comparison is to look at what West Coast, Brisbane and Adelaide were when they entered the comp.

Based in one city, but represented their whole state. "Our home is here in Queensland and we're playing for our state". "We're the pride of South Australia", etc.

West Coast didnt enter the comp as Perth. This isn't new.

I guess it is if all you've known is the suburban VFL, with a name change & some annoying flyins who pay the bills.

 

[telsor]

Ok, Ill stay on point.

Lets jump in our time machine to 2041.

We have 22 teams in the AFL, including Darwin, Canberra, Cairns and Tasmania.
We have a final 10 and the bottom 8 or so teams just play for the fun of it. Anyway......

Hobart population has grown to 300,000+ people
Hobart has an AFL stadium with 40k capacity and 40k membership base for the State team.

Launceston is offered 2 token games per season, (against GWS and GC), and no further investment is made into York Park with a limited capacity of 25k.
Launceston population grows to 180,000, The same size as Cairns and Darwin, which both have sides.
Devonport and Burnie's population grow to a combined 75,000 people, and the entire Nth Tasmanian region is now 300k strong.

Is this not a reasonable prediction?

Not really.

Tasmania's population is predicted to be in decline by then.

Even with more recent, more optimistic estimates (Tas government has been trying to attract people to counter the predicted decline), it's unlikely to be much better than holding steady.

Whatever it does, it's highly unlikely to grow faster than the rest of the country (AKA. the competition markets), so the relative pop sizes are unlikely to improve on what they are now.

 

[Tonatopia]

Not really.

Tasmania's population is predicted to be in decline by then.

Even with more recent, more optimistic estimates (Tas government has been trying to attract people to counter the predicted decline), it's unlikely to be much better than holding steady.

Whatever it does, it's highly unlikely to grow faster than the rest of the country (AKA. the competition markets), so the relative pop sizes are unlikely to improve on what they are now.

 

[madmug]

Yep.

As has been noted previously, the income disparity between the AFL and whatever second (let alone 3rd, 4th, etc) division comp might be created would make promotion/relegation a pipe dream.

A club with (next to) no TV coverage would struggle for sponsors and crowds/fans. ( e.g. current day WAFL/SANFL/VFL ) just wont have the salary capacity.
You can't just jump from $500K (if that) to $10M in a year and have a competitive team (e.g. GWS, GC), and the income of lower div teams just wouldn't support any more (without unfeasibly large subsidies)

Conversely, clubs dropping a grade would have millions in ongoing player contracts, and while some they could probably offload onto the newly promoted club (hey, new club, same players!) they'd still be left with enough to both drive them broke and trounce the opposition, meaning they'd likely be promoted again the following year, but be in a worse condition as a result. End result would be a few clubs at the bottom that would be uncompetitive in the top grade, and dominant in the second, just rotating between leagues.



As I recall, one of the few powers the clubs retain with the commission is adding (and removing) teams and a 2/3rds majority is required to add/remove a club.

I find it hard to believe that 12 clubs would agree to adding a new club that would, in effect, cost them all money unless a huge amount of work went into convincing (bribing) them. With GC/GWS it was a promise of long term gain and a commitment to equalisation in the short/medium term. I doubt 'social/community benefit' in a region a long way away from the clubs in question would have the same impact.

As I've said a number of times about a Tas club, a new club needs to not just be viable, it needs to make the league stronger in order to be a good chance to get included. An extra mouth at a table of the hungry isn't welcome for long unless they bring more food than they eat.

I think its always small minded self interest (politics) versus actually being a not for profit & tax free organisation that looks after the best interests of the game of Australian rules.

I think 1/2 the clubs 'eat more' than they bring to the table if thats your view.

 

[telsor]

I think its always small minded self interest (politics) versus actually being a not for profit & tax free organisation that looks after the best interests of the game of Australian rules.

I think 1/2 the clubs 'eat more' than they bring to the table if thats your view.

Incumbency has it's benefits. Not least that they get to vote.

All clubs are greedy for more money, so be it rich or poor clubs, spreading current income wider will always be viewed with caution.

 

[The_Wookie]

I think its always small minded self interest (politics) versus actually being a not for profit & tax free organisation that looks after the best interests of the game of Australian rules.

The Commission literally only exists because the clubs needed someone to look after the collective interest of the league and protect the bottom line of everyone. The governance of the game thing was a default position that came to the league with the abdication of the ANFC and the fact that the AFL had all the money, generated by its clubs.

I think 1/2 the clubs 'eat more' than they bring to the table if thats your view.

that applies to just as many clubs outside victoria as in victoria too.

 

[The_Wookie]

Ok, Ill stay on point.

Lets jump in our time machine to 2041.

We have 22 teams in the AFL, including Darwin, Canberra, Cairns and Tasmania.
We have a final 10 and the bottom 8 or so teams just play for the fun of it. Anyway......

Hobart population has grown to 300,000+ people
Hobart has an AFL stadium with 40k capacity and 40k membership base for the State team.

Launceston is offered 2 token games per season, (against GWS and GC), and no further investment is made into York Park with a limited capacity of 25k.
Launceston population grows to 180,000, The same size as Cairns and Darwin, which both have sides.
Devonport and Burnie's population grow to a combined 75,000 people, and the entire Nth Tasmanian region is now 300k+ strong.

Is this not a reasonable prediction?

or we could not go on flights of fancy and stick with the current bid application.

 

[Tonatopia]

or we could not go on flights of fancy and stick with the current bid application.

To appease whom? The AFL or the clubs?

Or, would the AFL adopt an NFL idea of conferences? I'd say so. They love the NFL model.

 

[The_Wookie]

To appease whom? The AFL or the clubs?

Its not about appeasing anyone. Its about keeping this thread on topic and you taking your little rebellion against reality to the thread you started on the matter in the furst place.

 

[Obzerva]

The best comparison is to look at what West Coast, Brisbane and Adelaide were when they entered the comp.

Based in one city, but represented their whole state. "Our home is here in Queensland and we're playing for our state". "We're the pride of South Australia", etc.

West Coast didnt enter the comp as Perth. This isn't new.

The above shows no understanding of Tasmania whatsoever.

Tasmania is the only decentralised state in Australia, ie more people live outside the capital than inside, and I think from memory, more people live in the north than the south.

West Coast may have once been WA's team, but the VAST majority are all in Perth, that is not the situation in Tasmania.

If northern Tasmania isn't brought along for the ride, then it will become a Tasmanian team in name only, and people won't engage.
There would need to be a minimum of 4 games in Launceston, and ideally 5.

The advantage of Launceston is you also pick up Devonport and the population along the NW coast, Hobart you don't.

 

[fargothegreat]

The above shows no understanding of Tasmania whatsoever.

I ******* live in Tasmania. I was born here and have lived here most of my life (minus three years while I went to uni). Are you Tasmanian too, or just a know it all?

If northern Tasmania isn't brought along for the ride, then it will become a Tasmanian team in name only, and people won't engage.
There would need to be a minimum of 4 games in Launceston, and ideally 5.

This is EXACTLY what has been proposed in the business case. Games are to be split between north and south. You're trying to create an issue where there isn't one.

 

[Tonatopia]

Obzerva - "If northern Tasmania isn't brought along for the ride, then it will become a Tasmanian team in name only, and people won't engage.
There would need to be a minimum of 4 games in Launceston, and ideally 5."

This is EXACTLY what has been proposed in the business case. Games are to be split between north and south. You're trying to create an issue where there isn't one.

Until Hobart gets its 40k Stadium. Then Nth Tas would be feeling like right dills.

 

[madmug]

The above shows no understanding of Tasmania whatsoever.

Tasmania is the only decentralised state in Australia, ie more people live outside the capital than inside, and I think from memory, more people live in the north than the south.

West Coast may have once been WA's team, but the VAST majority are all in Perth, that is not the situation in Tasmania.

If northern Tasmania isn't brought along for the ride, then it will become a Tasmanian team in name only, and people won't engage.
There would need to be a minimum of 4 games in Launceston, and ideally 5.

The advantage of Launceston is you also pick up Devonport and the population along the NW coast, Hobart you don't.

Well, not the only one. Queensland too has quite a widespread population. Brisbane has about 50% of the population. SE Qld has approx 73% of the total.

Tas population is split 50% in & around Hobart, 50% the rest. The centre of population is near the centre of the state But is slowly moving in a Southeast direction towards Hobart.

Covid 19 will have an effect on the population of all states, one way or the other!

 

[fargothegreat]

Until Hobart gets its 40k Stadium. Then Nth Tas would be feeling like right dills.

It's quite simple. There would be 12 games in Tassie each year (11 home + 1 preseason). Hobart gets 6 and Launceston gets 6. Until Hobart gets a bigger stadium Launceston gets the bigger drawing games. When Hobart's stadium is finished, these games are shared.

 

[Obzerva]

I ******* live in Tasmania. I was born here and have lived here most of my life (minus three years while I went to uni). Are you Tasmanian too, or just a know it all?


This is EXACTLY what has been proposed in the business case. Games are to be split between north and south. You're trying to create an issue where there isn't one.

Yes, Tasmanian.
I couldn't see the logic of arguing for games in one location when there is a such a dispersed population, apologies if you felt attacked, but it felt like an "outsider" arguing that it's just the same as Perth or Adelaide when I don't see it that way at all.

 

[madmug]

Until Hobart gets its 40k Stadium. Then Nth Tas would be feeling like right dills.

Do you understand the actual politics here?

Apart from the fact that neither place will get a 40k stadium anytime soon, Launceston will get a major stadium upgrade before anything much happens in Hobart.

Hobart would get suitable training & administration facilities for a team.

 

[telsor]

Do you understand the actual politics here?

Apart from the fact that neither place will get a 40k stadium anytime soon, Launceston will get a major stadium upgrade before anything much happens in Hobart.

Hobart would get suitable training & administration facilities for a team.

He clearly has trouble with math.

A 40K stadium would require ~1/6th of the local population to turn up to fill. (yes, tourists would help, but you'd still probably need ~35K locals).

Even 30K is a BIG stadium compared to the local population.

MCG is ~1/50th, Optus ~1/34th, AO ~1/27th). Smaller pops can sustain relatively larger stadia because costs aren't linear, but you wont find many 30K stadia in cities of under 250K.

 

[Tonatopia]

Do you understand the actual politics here?

Apart from the fact that neither place will get a 40k stadium anytime soon, Launceston will get a major stadium upgrade before anything much happens in Hobart.

Hobart would get suitable training & administration facilities for a team.

It was in the report. 40k stadium. I thought it seemed too large, but who am I to doubt it.
I think it was based on the metrics relating to Geelong and Kardina Park.

 

[fargothegreat]

Yes, Tasmanian.
I couldn't see the logic of arguing for games in one location when there is a such a dispersed population, apologies if you felt attacked, but it felt like an "outsider" arguing that it's just the same as Perth or Adelaide when I don't see it that way at all.

All good mate. My strong reaction was because I also assumed you were an outsider! My apologies.

I get too used to mainlanders on this thread trying to tell us that our team won't work because of the completely fictional north/south divide. As you say, our population is more spread out, so it makes more sense to spread our games out.

If I were setting up the league from scratch now I'd use the same model for Queensland with Brisbane and the Gold Coast. I'm too young to know, but perhaps the Bears did play games in both cities when they started?

EDIT: Yep they did. Played their home games out of both Carrara and the Gabba in the early 90s.

 

[Tonatopia]

If I were setting up the league from scratch now I'd use the same model for Queensland with Brisbane and the Gold Coast. I'm too young to know, but perhaps the Bears did play games in both cities when they started?

EDIT: Yep they did. Played their home games out of both Carrara and the Gabba in the early 90s.

What are you saying, by using the same model for Brisbane.

Are you implying that the new Tasmanian team play games in Launceston & Hobart, then move permanently to the capital city Hobart after they build their 'New' stadium, allowing for a new side (GC equivalent) to fill the void in the Launceston market?

 

[fargothegreat]

What are you saying, by using the same model for Brisbane.

Are you implying that the new Tasmanian team play games in Launceston & Hobart, then move permanently to the capital city Hobart after they build their 'New' stadium, allowing for a new side (GC equivalent) to fill the void in the Launceston market?

No I'm saying that if hypothetically the AFL was only being set up now, Queensland with their dispersed population like ours would be better suited to having one team playing out of both cities - the same model Tasmania is proposing.

Maybe in 50 years Tasmania could service two teams, but right now we can't. One team. Two home grounds.

North Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS and Geelong all do it right now.

 

[Tonatopia]

No I'm saying that if hypothetically the AFL was only being set up now, Queensland with their dispersed population like ours would be better suited to having one team playing out of both cities - the same model Tasmania is proposing.

Maybe in 50 years Tasmania could service two teams, but right now we can't. One team. Two home grounds.

North Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS and Geelong all do it right now.

GC is over an hour away from Brisbane, and longer if you're coming from Coolangatta.

If you take the Qld comparison, as soon as the Gabba was redeveloped, Brisbane moved and never looked back.

The same thing will happen when Hobart builds their Stadium. Bye Bye Launceston. See ya!