Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

Cup/QE winners

  • 2.SOUTHERN FRANCE (5)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3.SOUND (12)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5.CHAPADA (6)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 7.MIAMI BOUND (10)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 9.HUSH WRITER (15)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 12.SHES IDEEL (4)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 14.SACRAMENTO (9)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 4.THINK IT OVER (5)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 6.DALASAN (8)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8.MOUNGA (7)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .

Remove this Banner Ad

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
This ain't CL. Quick road to the poor house if you have to find exceptions to the rule as your sole reasoning. He would be 20s plus if be didnt line up at the Valley, instead you have to take gross unders because he got every favour in that race.
Carn - look at his SP profile - you are completely taking the piss if you think he would starts $20s here without the William Reid. There is no reasonable way on earth you can mark him gross unders at his current price unless you completely ignore SP as a metric - which is the true road to the poor house.

Given the top 4 in the betting look fair to unders at best at the moment there is zero chance that this guys current price is gross unders using any fair method of framing a market.
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Ed is a completely different horse now he is settling in the run with a different trainer. Its plainly obvious he wasnt running 1200m out because they used to just race him like a quarter horse. His last 2 ratings compared to anything else he has done show that. Even as an 800m horse he has still been competing in G1 level though, unlike that money thief who has been getting toweled up in BM races before he got kissed on the dick last start
Some solid guessing here ;) Reminds me of how the Dragon was being trained definitely for his first up tilt in the Orr :p

What distances were those two ratings recorder at please ?:p

Also who trained him when beaten a furlong in the Everest please? ;)

Sadly unless you took the $8 gift in the Galaxy you have missed the chance to win money on big ed
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
I'd mark the TJ

$5 - Squib
$6 - Masky Boy
$7 - Eduardo, Biv
$8 - Lib
$15 - HBH, Sep Run

The rest can share the remaining 10% between themselves
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,053
7,835
AFL Club
West Coast
Carn - look at his SP profile - you are completely taking the piss if you think he would starts $20s here without the William Reid. There is no reasonable way on earth you can mark him gross unders at his current price unless you completely ignore SP as a metric - which is the true road to the poor house.

Given the top 4 in the betting look fair to unders at best at the moment there is zero chance that this guys current price is gross unders using any fair method of framing a market.
Lol solid hype train talk putting that much stock into an SP profile. It has some merit, but nothing compared to the body of work the horse has actually put up. Maybe he wouldnt have actually been 20s given he is a hype boyz wet dream going down three times as an odds on fav in the spring in BM races, but on ability he should have been.

If you think these horses are all turn takers then he is a weird one to jump into anyway on the back of a peak performance based on severe biases. Got to take rock bottom odds in our elite sprint now because of it
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Lol solid hype train talk putting that much stock into an SP profile. It has some merit, but nothing compared to the body of work the horse has actually put up. Maybe he wouldnt have actually been 20s given he is a hype boyz wet dream going down three times as an odds on fav in the spring in BM races, but on ability he should have been.

If you think these horses are all turn takers then he is a weird one to jump into anyway on the back of a peak performance based on severe biases. Got to take rock bottom odds in our elite sprint now because of it
You mean the body of work like no horse on the planet has ever finished within 2 lengths of him over 1200m?

Moral?

Nah its not a weird one to jump onto - he is the df/the new blood/the CL - its a pretty easy horse to find actually and you get the ludicrous luxury of potentially getting the biggest odds he has ever jumped in a race!
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,053
7,835
AFL Club
West Coast
You mean the body of work like no horse on the planet has ever finished within 2 lengths of him over 1200m?

Moral?

Nah its not a weird one to jump onto - he is the df/the new blood/the CL - its a pretty easy horse to find actually and you get the ludicrous luxury of potentially getting the biggest odds he has ever jumped in a race!
Yeah some real all timers amongst those maidens and BM races. You can put together a better argument than that, otherwise i might have st start reeling out Eduardos 1 from 1 by three and a half lengths over 1300m. Moral to run the trip.
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Yeah some real all timers amongst those maidens and BM races. You can put together a better argument than that, otherwise i might have st start reeling out Eduardos 1 from 1 by three and a half lengths over 1300m. Moral to run the trip.
Well this is awkward
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
CHARMMEBABY looks a big price at 50s in the Country Champs final - was one of the better qualifier wins I thought. Draw is sh*t but basically started this price against Yao Dash last start and was only beaten around 4 lengths or so.
 
Last edited:

Shade

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 14, 2011
12,240
6,037
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Colts, UVA, Southampton
Concert Hall at 15s in the chairman is absolute robbery the biggest bunch of non winners and numbers running in that race.

shes not a star but sh*t shes better than this lot perenial loser dadoozdart is 8 ffs
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
32,535
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Concert Hall at 15s in the chairman is absolute robbery the biggest bunch of non winners ans numbers running in that race.

shes not star but sh*t shes better than this lot perenial loser dadoozdart is 8 ffs
NZ form - lel - will get spanked like they all have - yes Dadoozdart is poi poi as always but Sacremento is a very generous price and will give you a great sight for your money yet again.
 

Shade

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 14, 2011
12,240
6,037
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Colts, UVA, Southampton
NZ form - lel - will get spanked like they all have - yes Dadoozdart is poi poi as always but Sacremento is a very generous price and will give you a great sight for your money yet again.
easy 2 bet play sacramento and concert hall one of them will win supreme confidence in saying that.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,540
2,300
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Sydney jockeys must be thrilled with Campbell Rawiller riding there. Every race he competes in guaranteed to have a hot speed with his obsession to lead at any costs. All three of his rides so far today he has worked desperately to lead and been rolled in all.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
8,206
8,716
AFL Club
Collingwood
I'm having a crack at Dalasan in the doncaster, and explosive Jack in the derby - John Allen gone up there for one ride?
the one ride theory , one of the great myths of racing. A bloke who i work with had a really good horse in Singapore, They decided to pay MArk Zahra 10g to go there to ride him in a group 1. Horse missed the start and then Zahra did the unforgivable which is hunt him up and dsetroyed any chance of winning the race. Ran a good 5th. Lesson of the story, put anyone on, dont waste money on someone who can ride it just as bad
 

Slipps

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2012
6,662
6,831
AFL Club
Richmond
the one ride theory , one of the great myths of racing. A bloke who i work with had a really good horse in Singapore, They decided to pay MArk Zahra 10g to go there to ride him in a group 1. Horse missed the start and then Zahra did the unforgivable which is hunt him up and dsetroyed any chance of winning the race. Ran a good 5th. Lesson of the story, put anyone on, dont waste money on someone who can ride it just as bad
The old one ride thing works alot when its a country track etc and they make the way down there for just that ride.. but thats if it is a good jock would hardly call John Allen a good jock.
 

Remove this Banner Ad