Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

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VE the only win bet I'll be having in the race. Legit pissing away value and potential winnings by saving on Addeybb on a dry track.

Mugatoo the exacta horse. Wants 2000m now.

Wont be at all shocked if Think It Over or Dalasan run a drum as the two who will get closest to their peaks on a firm track

Mugatoo the place lay also looks an outstanding option. Needing the 2000 is always a weak excuse for failing at a mile. He ain’t beating the dragon home.
 
The Turnbull she fell in against Toffee Tongue and Finche. Cup run was ok. No doubt in my mind she prefers the sting out of the ground. Now maybe she prefers it less than others but not certainly wouldn’t shock me if one of the other two won.

Just a race I’m looking forward to but not interested in an investment (at this stage). Good luck with yours.

She was basically wide the entire trip in the Turnbull giving everything weight. Was a huge performance as I suggested in the lead up to her CC win.

Cup run was also huge in a race nothing got into from back of the field. Her not handling dry is as bigger myth as the dragon needing wet was
 

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Jan 30, 2013
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...I also think the market is judging that Mugatoo was a run short last week.

I think you've worded that incorrectly but yeah they are a touch forgiving just not for fitness. 3kg and 1.5L off winning a Donny not the end of the world for a bad run heading in. Was fit enough to win a ASM the start prior in the slop so fitness not a concern but he may have got to that race too early or didn't like staying at the mile and felt it the following week. Now up to 2000m where he is much better off big runs in prep could genuinely run new PB. I'd even classify his doncaster regression as "normal range" for a horse holding form they naturally fluctuate and Lees tends to do that more than other trainers.
 
Nah he is a 2000-2400m horse. Will show more improvement up to 2000m than the Dragon will dropping back in trip

2400m horse rolled by Mirage Dancer with every possible lel. Kissed on the dick in ASM and found out as a solid fraud last week in the worst Donny ever. That’s panels below what’s needed here. As stated earlier only chance is the Tosen milkshake.
 

mcnulty

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She was basically wide the entire trip in the Turnbull giving everything weight. Was a huge performance as I suggested in the lead up to her CC win.

Cup run was also huge in a race nothing got into from back of the field. Her not handling dry is as bigger myth as the dragon needing wet was
Didn’t say she won’t handle it. I’m the last person to pen a class horse racing at its right distance (the two overwhelming concerns) on the basis of track condition, which is why I’m not discounting Addeyyb. But I don’t think she’s at her best on firm. She also can get to pulling, small field no tempo???

Comp tipping I’d have her on top, but not interested in the odds against these. Besides, there’s more to the caper than the punt.
 
Jan 30, 2013
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Didn’t say she won’t handle it. I’m the last person to pen a class horse racing at its right distance (the two overwhelming concerns) on the basis of track condition, which is why I’m not discounting Addeyyb. But I don’t think she’s at her best on firm. She also can get to pulling, small field no tempo???

Comp tipping I’d have her on top, but not interested in the odds against these. Besides, there’s more to the caper than the punt.

Some more Blencowe gold



It's enough to instill question marks on her racing. The Turnbull was very poor in retrospect. It's a question of how far these underperform and people are rating horses way too high there's simply not that much between the A graders and A-. Not exactly a race I'd be keen on betting on unless you were convinced of SirD/Mug's profile to improve.
 
Didn’t say she won’t handle it. I’m the last person to pen a class horse racing at its right distance (the two overwhelming concerns) on the basis of track condition, which is why I’m not discounting Addeyyb. But I don’t think she’s at her best on firm. She also can get to pulling, small field no tempo???

Comp tipping I’d have her on top, but not interested in the odds against these. Besides, there’s more to the caper than the punt.

Pulling? What is this 2 years ago? That VE wouldn’t get close here but is long dead. They walked in the ranvet and she smashed them

it will just be like the tancred when people didn’t want the dragon because of the track and he walked in at a ludicrous price
 

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Jan 30, 2013
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Nah seems entirely plausible Addey could jar up and get no where near them without surprising

Thought's on Addeybb's Prince of Wales? (i think) they gave it big rating on what was firm ground. The form didn't hold up later on but was big spike for the winner and Add went around $4 or something before he went into stratosphere with his rating a few starts later. It's a super strong SP on firm ground for Euro analysts when they basing it on his Aus form.

It's his best go on dry and it's not completely legless like most making out.
 

Jugada

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yeah but then the dragon will run second. I don’t rate anything else on the race

Yeah the horse that couldn't get past Angel of Truth last time after getting the gun run

And only just got past an apparently garbage Colette who was 3 and 4 deep no cover the trip

Seems like a cert...
 
Yeah the horse that couldn't get past Angel of Truth last time after getting the gun run

And only just got past an apparently garbage Colette who was 3 and 4 deep no cover the trip

Seems like a cert...

have you seen the other runners. Utter donkeys

just got past. lol raped collete mate in one of the great tancred trials
 

Jugada

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Thought's on Addeybb's Prince of Wales? (i think) they gave it big rating on what was firm ground. The form didn't hold up later on but was big spike for the winner and Add went around $4 or something before he went into stratosphere with his rating a few starts later. It's a super strong SP on firm ground for Euro analysts when they basing it on his Aus form.

It's his best go on dry and it's not completely legless like most making out.

It was fair. Dont have a big opinion of the horse who gapped them and there was only a couple lengths between then next 5.

Mainly though I just don't think a European good track is as firm as ours and if the trainer is saying he would typically scratch the horse that's enough for me to avoid
 

Jugada

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have you seen the other runners. Utter donkeys

just got past. lol raped collete mate in one of the great tancred trials

A group he fits into well on current form.

Lel fell ass backwards into a Tancred filled with B grade handicappers using it as a lead up. Has been utter trash outside of that.
 
A group he fits into well on current form.

Lel fell ass backwards into a Tancred filled with B grade handicappers using it as a lead up. Has been utter trash outside of that.

thankfully he meets utter trash here outside the top two. There’s a reason I’m pricing them 90% of the market
 
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Any fact base behind this, or are you just saying it's hard to do?
I may have exaggerated the percentage but the win percentage is very low. Only one has won a Melbourne cup (Empire Rose) in its history and she was lengths better than that field and almost got run down by Nayrizi. A good horse will usually fight and run a place but something always runs them down, a soft horse will drop out quickly.
IF the race is run slowly there is almost always a mid race move made and the death horse has already worked to get there, so they have to make another run early, If its run fast they are just a sitting shot for something. I cant understand how race watchers dont see this. I would rate the death a 1 length handicap from 1200m to 1400m, 2 lengths to 1600m 3 lengths to 2000 4 to 5 lengths to 2500 m and almost impossible to win at further.
 
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It was fair. Dont have a big opinion of the horse who gapped them and there was only a couple lengths between then next 5.

It was a weird race at the time. I remember in aftermath people were saying the time was really strong time on the day. 5L to third sort of forces your hand to give it a good rating in a G1 like that so the winner was always going to be well rated as he teased a couple of times prior and could have magically put it together on the day. Times/margins/racestatus basically all you need, but the form didn't really hold up even behind him.

Regardless if a 2nd in the Prince of Wales rocked up here in years past minus Winx he'd be talked up off the maps so it's great to see us marking Addeybb down and saying that's not good enough here.
 
Yeah but are their trainers full of as much sh*t as ours? Almost as bad as jockeys those blokes, especially if they like a punt.

no they are actual gentleman over there and generally don’t talk s**t (apart from the lads where all their horses have brilliant speed). Haggas and Gosden especially. I’m sure Aussies know better than him though.
 

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