Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

Cup/QE winners

  • 2.SOUTHERN FRANCE (5)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3.SOUND (12)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 5.CHAPADA (6)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 7.MIAMI BOUND (10)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 9.HUSH WRITER (15)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 12.SHES IDEEL (4)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 14.SACRAMENTO (9)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 4.THINK IT OVER (5)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 6.DALASAN (8)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8.MOUNGA (7)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .

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iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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Derby has blow out written all over it.
Map definitely suggests that - those high up in Tulloch/R Guineas in Green - they either get trapped wide or go way back. I am on Yaletown at 50s so hope they run it laughably and he pinches it but I expect he will be dropping back in the laps as they come around the home turn.

1617688272950.png
 

iluvparis

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TJ looks a race in 3 between Eduardo, Nature Strip and September Run who is a silly price on the back of one poor Newmarket run
We know this race is never that simple amongst complete and utter turn takers.

Ed is utter poi poi at 1200 but will luckily cut the squib to shreds as happened in the Everest allowing Masky boy to storm over the top of them Classique Legend style. Laughable he is a bigger price than Haut Brion Squib right now. Expecting him to start clear third fave and could do a SAL job on them.

You shold have already made bank on Ed in the Galaxy - 1100m handicap right up his alley - 1200m WFA in this class is 100% not

Biv and Libertini can also win easily if showing up.

September Run has none I reckon and will be found out as yet another fraud from a weak 3yo crop here.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Looks about right but you can leave out TIO completely at the utter poi poi given I can see him ending up 3-4 wide the trip. Has an utterly horrific SP profile too and I think he will be right out the gate on the day. I'll be on Avi hoping he can do a Hartnell. My map:

View attachment 1095410
Had an awful SP profile for yonks but keeps on winning, punters clearly just getting him wrong. If he drew a gate he was the clear #2 seed so still needs go in in case Bossy can steer him through. He gets in too well at the weights against horses he has been beating or finishing beside
 

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iluvparis

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Had an awful SP profile for yonks but keeps on winning, punters clearly just getting him wrong. If he drew a gate he was the clear #2 seed so still needs go in in case Bossy can steer him through. He gets in too well at the weights against horses he has been beating or finishing beside
Look he could be a Vision and Power type but there will be enough good horses run to their top here that he won't fill a hole - utter poi poi at the price and I'll be leaving out of everything.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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We know this race is never that simple amongst complete and utter turn takers.

Ed is utter poi poi at 1200 but will luckily cut the squib to shreds as happened in the Everest allowing Masky boy to storm over the top of them Classique Legend style. Laughable he is a bigger price than Haut Brion Squib right now. Expecting him to start clear third fave and could do a SAL job on them.

You shold have already made bank on Ed in the Galaxy - 1100m handicap right up his alley - 1200m WFA in this class is 100% not

Biv and Libertini can also win easily if showing up.

September Run has none I reckon and will be found out as yet another fraud from a weak 3yo crop here.
Ed is a completely different horse to previous preps and is settling in the run now so 1200m shouldnt be an issue. Him and NS have gapped everything else they have come up against this prep in good times.

MC is horrendous odds for bobbing up in one race where there was a strong on speed/rails bias. Much rather be on the filly out of that who had to come from last and about 9 or 10 wide against the bias
 

TBellicious

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 4, 2013
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Map definitely suggests that - those high up in Tulloch/R Guineas in Green - they either get trapped wide or go way back. I am on Yaletown at 50s so hope they run it laughably and he pinches it but I expect he will be dropping back in the laps as they come around the home turn.

View attachment 1095411
Rocket Spade looks the hole in the market at the moment. Milford and The Frontman have proven that the form he brings is no good over here
 

iluvparis

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Ed is a completely different horse to previous preps and is settling in the run now so 1200m shouldnt be an issue. Him and NS have gapped everything else they have come up against this prep in good times.

MC is horrendous odds for bobbing up in one race where there was a strong on speed/rails bias. Much rather be on the filly out of that who had to come from last and about 9 or 10 wide against the bias
People said same about CL pre Everest and he flogged them. He is no better than Masky boy and your getting twice the price. Much better to look at different form lines than take the poi poi on the turn takers. Especially one like Ed who we know is lengths worse 1200. That ain’t changing. He won’t suddenly get the trip. Galaxy was his race. This is a much worse set up and he is half the price.
 

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iluvparis

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Around 40 mls since that epic downpour two weeks ago and still at the worst end of the soft range - never change Swampwick

 

iluvparis

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Take out Sept Run and Put in Masked theres your 3 chances.
Plus Biv and Libertini - anyone who says they can completely rule those two out is taking the piss. How have people not realised yet these are complete turn takers and anyone of the 5 can bob up on the day with a peak performance and win.
 

TBellicious

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 4, 2013
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Bivouac with the Boss off Bowman on switch could be the most significant form factor for trying to predict who will have their peak performance
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Take out Sept Run and Put in Masked theres your 3 chances.
Nah MC, BIV and HBH are the poison suckers at the top of the market. MC got shown up for a complete fraud in the Spring and his Autumn form had been just average around the 2nd and 3rd stringers before he managed to bob up at the Valley where every bias went his way and now you have to take gross unders in a TJ because of it
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Plus Biv and Libertini - anyone who says they can completely rule those two out is taking the piss. How have people not realised yet these are complete turn takers and anyone of the 5 can bob up on the day with a peak performance and win.
Could not touch Biv at 5s on what he has done this time. Would be completely guessing and taking an awful price about it
 

iluvparis

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Nah MC, BIV and HBH are the poison suckers at the top of the market. MC got shown up for a complete fraud in the Spring and his Autumn form had been just average around the 2nd and 3rd stringers before he managed to bob up at the Valley where every bias went his way and now you have to take gross unders in a TJ because of it
Yup - sounds exactly like Classique Legned and the Everest mark 2!

Gross unders - lel $9 an absolute gift - gross unders is taking $4.50 Eduardo over 1200 after his utter embarassment in the Everest.
 

iluvparis

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Could not touch Biv at 5s on what he has done this time. Would be completely guessing and taking an awful price about it
Oh no doubt he is complete and utter poi poi (only surpassed by Hurrdy Bronwn Hurr - how the fu** this isn't twice the price and is shorter than Masky boy is one of the great miss pricings of all time ina G1), but it wouldn't shock me if he came out and won.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Yup - sounds exactly like Classique Legned and the Everest mark 2!

Gross unders - lel $9 an absolute gift - gross unders is taking $4.50 Eduardo over 1200 after his utter embarassment in the Everest.
This ain't CL. Quick road to the poor house if you have to find exceptions to the rule as your sole reasoning. He would be 20s plus if be didnt line up at the Valley, instead you have to take gross unders because he got every favour in that race.

Ed is a completely different horse now he is settling in the run with a different trainer. Its plainly obvious he wasnt running 1200m out because they used to just race him like a quarter horse. His last 2 ratings compared to anything else he has done show that. Even as an 800m horse he has still been competing in G1 level though, unlike that money thief who has been getting toweled up in BM races before he got kissed on the dick last start
 

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