Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

Derby has blow out written all over it.

Map definitely suggests that - those high up in Tulloch/R Guineas in Green - they either get trapped wide or go way back. I am on Yaletown at 50s so hope they run it laughably and he pinches it but I expect he will be dropping back in the laps as they come around the home turn.

1617688272950.png
 
TJ looks a race in 3 between Eduardo, Nature Strip and September Run who is a silly price on the back of one poor Newmarket run

We know this race is never that simple amongst complete and utter turn takers.

Ed is utter poi poi at 1200 but will luckily cut the squib to shreds as happened in the Everest allowing Masky boy to storm over the top of them Classique Legend style. Laughable he is a bigger price than Haut Brion Squib right now. Expecting him to start clear third fave and could do a SAL job on them.

You shold have already made bank on Ed in the Galaxy - 1100m handicap right up his alley - 1200m WFA in this class is 100% not

Biv and Libertini can also win easily if showing up.

September Run has none I reckon and will be found out as yet another fraud from a weak 3yo crop here.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,655
AFL Club
West Coast
Looks about right but you can leave out TIO completely at the utter poi poi given I can see him ending up 3-4 wide the trip. Has an utterly horrific SP profile too and I think he will be right out the gate on the day. I'll be on Avi hoping he can do a Hartnell. My map:

View attachment 1095410

Had an awful SP profile for yonks but keeps on winning, punters clearly just getting him wrong. If he drew a gate he was the clear #2 seed so still needs go in in case Bossy can steer him through. He gets in too well at the weights against horses he has been beating or finishing beside
 
Arcadia Queen has been retired

Very big lose to Oz racing. Starts 1800+ dry:

Wins Kingston Town by 4
Wins Underwood by 1.3 over the camel
Bolts in Mackinnon

Horrifically placed and didn't win as many top races as she should have been allowed to.
 
Had an awful SP profile for yonks but keeps on winning, punters clearly just getting him wrong. If he drew a gate he was the clear #2 seed so still needs go in in case Bossy can steer him through. He gets in too well at the weights against horses he has been beating or finishing beside

Look he could be a Vision and Power type but there will be enough good horses run to their top here that he won't fill a hole - utter poi poi at the price and I'll be leaving out of everything.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,655
AFL Club
West Coast
We know this race is never that simple amongst complete and utter turn takers.

Ed is utter poi poi at 1200 but will luckily cut the squib to shreds as happened in the Everest allowing Masky boy to storm over the top of them Classique Legend style. Laughable he is a bigger price than Haut Brion Squib right now. Expecting him to start clear third fave and could do a SAL job on them.

You shold have already made bank on Ed in the Galaxy - 1100m handicap right up his alley - 1200m WFA in this class is 100% not

Biv and Libertini can also win easily if showing up.

September Run has none I reckon and will be found out as yet another fraud from a weak 3yo crop here.

Ed is a completely different horse to previous preps and is settling in the run now so 1200m shouldnt be an issue. Him and NS have gapped everything else they have come up against this prep in good times.

MC is horrendous odds for bobbing up in one race where there was a strong on speed/rails bias. Much rather be on the filly out of that who had to come from last and about 9 or 10 wide against the bias
 
Sep 4, 2013
5,528
8,586
AFL Club
Carlton
Map definitely suggests that - those high up in Tulloch/R Guineas in Green - they either get trapped wide or go way back. I am on Yaletown at 50s so hope they run it laughably and he pinches it but I expect he will be dropping back in the laps as they come around the home turn.

View attachment 1095411
Rocket Spade looks the hole in the market at the moment. Milford and The Frontman have proven that the form he brings is no good over here
 
Ed is a completely different horse to previous preps and is settling in the run now so 1200m shouldnt be an issue. Him and NS have gapped everything else they have come up against this prep in good times.

MC is horrendous odds for bobbing up in one race where there was a strong on speed/rails bias. Much rather be on the filly out of that who had to come from last and about 9 or 10 wide against the bias

People said same about CL pre Everest and he flogged them. He is no better than Masky boy and your getting twice the price. Much better to look at different form lines than take the poi poi on the turn takers. Especially one like Ed who we know is lengths worse 1200. That ain’t changing. He won’t suddenly get the trip. Galaxy was his race. This is a much worse set up and he is half the price.
 
View attachment 1095629

Some person you've never heard of just paid $2million dollars of his Dad's Dad's money for a Snitzel colt.

Would be more interested if they had equal coverage of which tried horses were being purchased from Europe
 
Take out Sept Run and Put in Masked theres your 3 chances.

Plus Biv and Libertini - anyone who says they can completely rule those two out is taking the piss. How have people not realised yet these are complete turn takers and anyone of the 5 can bob up on the day with a peak performance and win.
 
Bivouac with the Boss off Bowman on switch could be the most significant form factor for trying to predict who will have their peak performance

Lol the jockey switch is not going to suddenly turn him around - it will be entirely down to the horse.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,655
AFL Club
West Coast
Take out Sept Run and Put in Masked theres your 3 chances.

Nah MC, BIV and HBH are the poison suckers at the top of the market. MC got shown up for a complete fraud in the Spring and his Autumn form had been just average around the 2nd and 3rd stringers before he managed to bob up at the Valley where every bias went his way and now you have to take gross unders in a TJ because of it
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,655
AFL Club
West Coast
Plus Biv and Libertini - anyone who says they can completely rule those two out is taking the piss. How have people not realised yet these are complete turn takers and anyone of the 5 can bob up on the day with a peak performance and win.

Could not touch Biv at 5s on what he has done this time. Would be completely guessing and taking an awful price about it
 
Nah MC, BIV and HBH are the poison suckers at the top of the market. MC got shown up for a complete fraud in the Spring and his Autumn form had been just average around the 2nd and 3rd stringers before he managed to bob up at the Valley where every bias went his way and now you have to take gross unders in a TJ because of it

Yup - sounds exactly like Classique Legned and the Everest mark 2!

Gross unders - lel $9 an absolute gift - gross unders is taking $4.50 Eduardo over 1200 after his utter embarassment in the Everest.
 
Could not touch Biv at 5s on what he has done this time. Would be completely guessing and taking an awful price about it

Oh no doubt he is complete and utter poi poi (only surpassed by Hurrdy Bronwn Hurr - how the * this isn't twice the price and is shorter than Masky boy is one of the great miss pricings of all time ina G1), but it wouldn't shock me if he came out and won.
 

Jugada

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
10,702
12,655
AFL Club
West Coast
Yup - sounds exactly like Classique Legned and the Everest mark 2!

Gross unders - lel $9 an absolute gift - gross unders is taking $4.50 Eduardo over 1200 after his utter embarassment in the Everest.

This ain't CL. Quick road to the poor house if you have to find exceptions to the rule as your sole reasoning. He would be 20s plus if be didnt line up at the Valley, instead you have to take gross unders because he got every favour in that race.

Ed is a completely different horse now he is settling in the run with a different trainer. Its plainly obvious he wasnt running 1200m out because they used to just race him like a quarter horse. His last 2 ratings compared to anything else he has done show that. Even as an 800m horse he has still been competing in G1 level though, unlike that money thief who has been getting toweled up in BM races before he got kissed on the dick last start
 
Back