Racing April Daily Punt- The Championswamps and a farewell to the Queen

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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HK sprinters better than we think or Aus sprinters not the quality some may think
bit of both. Santa has never won a race by more than 2L since first prep. he then wins the TJ at 6 with 33 starts under his belt by 3.5L going away. it didn't seem reproducible before the race and he's gone back to his normal form it seems.
 

FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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Will wait for the times but I think he's probably gone pretty good.

From a betting POV, it's a simple lesson in taking short odds about horses that get back in the field.
there's "pretty good" and then there's what he did in the TJ.

he's pretty good most times he steps out, fairly consistent IMO. TJ was one out of the box and he looked priced on that run. Pre TJ he seemed like a get back Redzel type picking up some cheap ones running reasonable and consistent G1 times, but the TJ was anything but.
 

rideclutch

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there's "pretty good" and then there's what he did in the TJ.

he's pretty good most times he steps out, fairly consistent IMO. TJ was one out of the box and he looked priced on that run. Pre TJ he seemed like a get back Redzel type picking up some cheap ones but the TJ was anything but.
Right, but my point is we don't know. He might well have been able to do it again.

I think if someone was expecting him to reproduce his TJ run, you'd have to forecast that similar level of pressure, which didn't happen. You can spit out a number that says he's reverted to type, but it doesn't tell the full story.
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Time doesn’t really stack up either.

21.50

Winner goes 21.55 long neck

Leader goes 21.86 +2L

$26 chance goes 21.64 1L

Had Viddora give him a cart into it. Looks straight up and down to me. Can’t forgive him on that.
 

iluvparis

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Lol Bowman
??? Where did you expect him to be in the run - would have thought anyone who can half do a decent speed map would have had him in exactly that position.

No idea why people were blowing up about the ride post race - as pointed out by a host of people here before the race he gets back and they are always a chance of walking in fish bowl races.
 

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