NSW oaks may be better but Vic Oaks is a shyteshow
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Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg
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iluvparis
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Disagree - Historically the VRC Oaks has been one of the easiest races on the planet to find the winner.
- Sep 4, 2013
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It was a similar story with the Derby last week though wasn't it?
You had the class runners out of a slow Rosehill Guineas, then the fitter horses on the week back-up ran the tri because they went along at a decent clip.
It's an intriguing race.
- Sep 4, 2013
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Agree Probabeel is the only horse I could take out of the Vinery. She's got the runs on the board and is very classy.
Half the battle to the Oaks this weekend is the speed in the race IMO and how it will be run.
- Jan 30, 2013
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I understand what you mean, normally our better horses (milers) fall by the wayside on the way there and we are left with some fairly ordinary stayers on the way up. A few may improve to the mile and a half and likely heavy track means there are a few anomalies here and there.
There was a period there though where you had short priced favourites falling over
2018 - Amphritite $2.90 unplaced
2017 - Aloisia $2 unplaced
2015 - Yankee Rose $1.90 unplaced
To 2000m seems form is consistent enough its the leap to 2400/2500 that makes a huge difference.
Some of the winners prices of the SA and Qld Oaks recent years are eye watering
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Lasqueti Spirit $151 in 2016 !!
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Maher & Eustace mustn't have many big plans for Away Game as a 3yo
Been up since November and seemed to have run in everything
Been up since November and seemed to have run in everything
Try and squeeze every last ounce?
For a 2yo has proven pretty durable
Yes it is
Probabeel is the class horse. I am a tad surprised at its price ($4) - thought would be under $3s
iluvparis
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That period is the exception that makes the rule
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In some cases there is always those years where a no hoper but pure stayer claps on the speed over 2400m that they were not keen on doing before their grand final. Meaning the sit/sprint 2000m form completely changes dynamic.
I agree they can be very different races. Good horses win but it does change heavily. some of those good horses are only seen in a retrospective light too.
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All over it @35's now into 16's but been scratchings so will prob hav deductions on the 35's.
Also like Black Magnum in Race 7
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Yeah definitely aware of that as per my note re Quick Thinker.
I'm more a believer in the best horse wins and take form on its merit rather than follow patterns of races run in. Eg Winx won 4x Cox Plates because she was the best horse in the Cox Plate, not because she used such and such as a lead up race.
But I heard the pattern with the boys has been towards the Tulloch lately, whereas if you look at the pattern for the girls it hasn't been the Adrian Knox.
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English Guineas & Epsom festivals pushed back. Royal Ascot behind closed doors. This could be first year with no betting on the Queen’s hat. These are serious times
iluvparis
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Tragedy for Russian Camelot antepost backers
Not much info on it other than:
“See how she goes, up in trip might jag a place “ was basically all he said
But I’ll be on with a small outlay
I had a small place bet. Quite a decent midweek distance maiden.
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Just a quick look,
last 20 years Autumn derby/oaks around 27% win rate for faves. Down on average of 39% for <2000m 3yo G1s.
12% or a third less likely. Might mean there's no clear fave. Another quick looks says this is not the case.
-35% POT.
9.5 expected winners based on SP, 8 won.
Notable recent losers
Castel, Gingernuts, Winx, Tarzino, Lucia Valentina, Jimmy Choux
3 have won at sub $1.50.
Is entered Pak tomorrow over 1600m
$1.40
Nice card today at Murray Bridge and as you'd expect the midweek SA Meeting is that bit stronger with the bigger races programmed on the Saturdays.
Race 1 - Best of the day comes up straight away in Exalted Ambition. I think he's a stayer with a future. Ran a top race in the Hill Smith last Spring before going onto contest the Geelong Classic where he led from the wide gate at a decent speed before carving up behind Long Jack. I think he can take off mid race and will be strong enough to sustain the effort.
Race 4 - Daniyah debuts for Mcevoys. Followed Mileva through in a recent trial. The stable has an impeccable record on this track and I feel they've brought her here today to perform on this magnificent surface before looking to bigger things at the upcoming carnival.
Race 6 - Matas finds a suitable race here. It's a horse I've followed for a few runs and the further the better. Backing up from Saturday, back to this class she should be winning.
Race 1 - Best of the day comes up straight away in Exalted Ambition. I think he's a stayer with a future. Ran a top race in the Hill Smith last Spring before going onto contest the Geelong Classic where he led from the wide gate at a decent speed before carving up behind Long Jack. I think he can take off mid race and will be strong enough to sustain the effort.
Race 4 - Daniyah debuts for Mcevoys. Followed Mileva through in a recent trial. The stable has an impeccable record on this track and I feel they've brought her here today to perform on this magnificent surface before looking to bigger things at the upcoming carnival.
Race 6 - Matas finds a suitable race here. It's a horse I've followed for a few runs and the further the better. Backing up from Saturday, back to this class she should be winning.
Race 7 - Really nice race. Sunrise Dancer is the one here. Had Melbourne metro form not long ago. Stokes on fire at the moment. Rock Harbour trialled nicely the other day but may need the run at this distance. Watch the market for his chances. Can't explain Justa Jillaroo being current favourite. Lay Lay Lay all day.
Race 8 - Balaabel should walk this in if anywhere near ready. I will be having a place bet on Love From Lucy. Eye catching run last start and currently $4.20 the place. I'll take some of that.
Race 8 - Balaabel should walk this in if anywhere near ready. I will be having a place bet on Love From Lucy. Eye catching run last start and currently $4.20 the place. I'll take some of that.
Danon Premium into $3.70
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