Arbitrage-Middles Thread

[HumanMeatball]

All I did yesterday was place $100 with Bluebet at the coin toss at (I think) $1.73. The betfair lay price went down straight away at the coin toss from like 1.75 to 1.58 or something.

Just make sure you back the team that wins the toss.

I then layed the same team on betfair for 1.58 and made about 9 bucks

So basically you watch closely to who wins the toss then quickly back that team at a traditional bookmaker, straight after you then lay that team when the odds start plummeting and from your experience it’s around a 9-10% profit

 

[Dan26]

So basically you watch closely to who wins the toss then quickly back that team at a traditional bookmaker, straight after you then lay that team when the odds start plummeting and from your experience it’s around a 9-10% profit

Yes.

From the handful of games i've done it so far. The big books like sportsbet, crownbet etc seem to adjust their odds very quickly at the coin toss. Some of the smaller ones like Bluebet and Topbetta took over 10 minutes for their odds to change.

 

[Sabbathen]

Would be really interested to hear from someone that has followed cricket prices on Betfair for awhile if this is always the case. There’s big money traded on cricket and it’s played all year round. Seems too good to be true.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Yes.

From the handful of games i've done it so far. The big books like sportsbet, crownbet etc seem to adjust their odds very quickly at the coin toss. Some of the smaller ones like Bluebet and Topbetta took over 10 minutes for their odds to change.

Hmm very interesting. How do you keep track and know precisely when the coin toss takes place?

 

[Dan26]

Hmm very interesting. How do you keep track and know precisely when the coin toss takes place?

Just go on betfair exactly 30 minutes before the game and you will see the price drop immediately for one of the teams. Just make sure you have your browser open with another bookie (or a couple of them in case you can't get on with one) ready to place your bet.

 

[X_box_X]

Would be really interested to hear from someone that has followed cricket prices on Betfair for awhile if this is always the case. There’s big money traded on cricket and it’s played all year round. Seems too good to be true.

From my understanding, the Big Bash isn't quite as dramatic. The coin toss will have a little influence on the market, but not to the same extent as the BPL.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Just go on betfair exactly 30 minutes before the game and you will see the price drop immediately for one of the teams. Just make sure you have your browser open with another bookie (or a couple of them in case you can't get on with one) ready to place your bet.

Thanks mate. I have not used Betfair before so might give this a go to grasp the concept with $30 or so

 

[X_box_X]

I have created a monster.

 

[Sabbathen]

I have created a monster.

Yes you have haha. Another game at 11:00pm est tonight, coin toss at 10:30pm... Let’s see how badly I can **** this up after a few sherberts under the belt.

 

[targett]

Did anyone live trade this match ?

 

[targett]

Rangpur Riders
$2 Uni
$1.60 Lay BF

 

[Sabbathen]

Yes you have haha. Another game at 11:00pm est tonight, coin toss at 10:30pm... Let’s see how badly I can **** this up after a few sherberts under the belt.

Pretty big price move about 30 mins before the toss which allowed me to lock in a profit but saw a few books suspended the event just before the toss. Hope everyone managed to get on, Rangpur went from around $1.90-$1.95 with the bookies to $1.60 lay on betfair, approx 20% profit.

 

[Djoker]

Rangpur Riders
$2 Uni
$1.60 Lay BF

Pretty big price move about 30 mins before the toss which allowed me to lock in a profit but saw a few books suspended the event just before the toss. Hope everyone managed to get on, Rangpur went from around $1.90-$1.95 with the bookies to $1.60 lay on betfair, approx 20% profit.

Got the $2 at Uni - Ubet and Crown both suspended pretty much as soon as there was a swing in betfair but Neds stayed opened and dropped the odds pretty fast. My lay is still unmatched at 1.59 (being a bit greedy) but will adjust and accept a little less profit in a couple of minutes - actually just got it so 20% return for a few minutes work though probably would have realistically been 10% if it wasn't for Uni's good odds.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Might try to this with a decent stake next time. So correct me if I’m wrong but the smart thing to do is back it prior to laying in case bookies suspend betting correct?

 

[NutnButAPnut]

Blake Griffin over 4.5 assists at 1.65 (sportsbet/ladbrokes) - Under 4.5 assists at $3 on bet365

Also: Harden under 9.5 assists on bet365 at $2.25 - Over 9.5 on topsport at $2 (1.90 on neds also)

 

[Djoker]

Looked at my BPL bets this morning and my unibet account was looking a bit higher than it should have - checked what I bet on and accidently placed some money on highest opening partnership rather than the win...

So instead of being punished for being careless got an extra win, could have ended badly though, will have to pay more attention tomorrow night but I was sure all my bets were on the win.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Looked at my BPL bets this morning and my unibet account was looking a bit higher than it should have - checked what I bet on and accidently placed some money on highest opening partnership rather than the win...

So instead of being punished for being careless got an extra win, could have ended badly though, will have to pay more attention tomorrow night but I was sure all my bets were on the win.

It’s definitely easy to do. I put on a arb once and accidentally bet on unders on both, it won but could have been a disaster

 

[Sabbathen]

Looked at my BPL bets this morning and my unibet account was looking a bit higher than it should have - checked what I bet on and accidently placed some money on highest opening partnership rather than the win...

So instead of being punished for being careless got an extra win, could have ended badly though, will have to pay more attention tomorrow night but I was sure all my bets were on the win.

They suspended the head to head market as the toss happened and replaced it with highest opening partnership. Sneaky, it looked very similar in description on quick glance and the prices were fairly similar too from memory but that’s why you always need to triple check everything.

 

[HumanMeatball]

They suspended the head to head market as the toss happened and replaced it with highest opening partnership. Sneaky, it looked very similar in description on quick glance and the prices were fairly similar too from memory but that’s why you always need to triple check everything.

That’s extremely suss. It’s clear the bigger betting companies are obviously aware of this particular betfair swing.

 

[Dan26]

Cub Swanson ($2.10 Crownbet) vs Brian Ortega ($2.27 sportsbet) MMA 10th December

8.34%

Crown reduced my stake from $260 to $45

 

[targett]

Cub Swanson ($2.10 Crownbet) vs Brian Ortega ($2.27 sportsbet) MMA 10th December

8.34%

Crown reduced my stake from $260 to $45

Normal of Crownbet.Been stung a few times.I wont deposit funds just for Arbs as most of the time it's sent to traders with a poor amounts offered up

 

[karaoke]

Womens RL World Cup
Canada - $10.00 Crown
PNG - $1.24 TAB

 

[Dan26]

Womens RL World Cup
Canada - $10.00 Crown
PNG - $1.24 TAB

Good find!

 

[targett]

Womens RL World Cup
Canada - $10.00 Crown
PNG - $1.24 TAB

Max Bet ?

 

[Rocky Straight]

NCAA,
South Dakota State/Kansas
TGS
O149.5 $1.92 Uni
U150.5 $1.97 Pinn

not sure 1pt is profitable mate