Ardennes Classics

[Secular Bicep]

With one done and dusted, Amstel Gold, won by Gilbert, we move onto Fleche Wallonne tomorrow and then finish with Liege-Bastonge-Liege on Sunday.

The Mur could be too difficult for Gilbert but he is still a strong chance.

Valverde just drove nearly 2000km with Sanchez and another team-mate to get there for this race so I don't think they will be all that well prepared only arriving Monday after that drive. I think Caisse have a better shot at LBL. Gilbert also has a strong chance there.

Rodriguez sucked on Sunday, Schleck's were strong, Kreuziger was impressive, Kolobnev, who I rate to win a classic soon and my underdog for this year's World's in Geelong is also a strong chance. Of course the other usual suspects are Cunego, Gesink and Nibali.

Contador is here and he could do something, but he's still recovering from a hand operation and is climbing like crap at the moment but no one is talking about him.

On the Australian's, you can't forget Evans, who was supporting Kroon the other day but Kroon wasn't feeling so good so he launched an attack.

Gerrans, well, he's a wheel-sucker and I can't see him winning a classic like this because you actually need to attack. Those who want to question that statement of a wheel-sucker, look to all his Grand Tour victories and watch replays. Hardly did a pull at the front in each of those breakaways. Last year's Giro win, he did attack, but was rarely at the front, so of course he had the legs. Last years Vuelta win was classic Gerrans. Did bugger all work all day and in the last 20 odd km, he was always at the back relying on the other people to make moves he could benefit from. If those guys didn't make those moves, they would have been caught. Was he up there helping? No. I know if I was in a break with him and he was not contributing, I would sit back with him. That's what they should have done, but they didn't.

Gilbert is my tip despite the question marks on the Mur.

 

[Freakie]

I'm leaning towards Frank Schleck but I think Horner may be a dark horse...

 

[Secular Bicep]

Of the Schleck's, I think Andy will be the man again.

Tonight's race is open. Gilbert has the better chance to do a double on Sunday.

 

[Enriqo]

Agreed that Sunday is a better day for Gilbert.

I'm tipping Cunego, but it's really a toss up if the all big contenders are together at the final.

 

[Secular Bicep]

Agreed that Sunday is a better day for Gilbert.

I'm tipping Cunego, but it's really a toss up if the all big contenders are together at the final.

Cunego rode well the other day and I agree, strong chance. All the main contenders will be there at the Mur.

I'm sticking with my man Kolobnev. Hoping Kreuziger will do something too.

 

[sirjames]

Nice writeup secular bicep. I get the feeling you are using the term wheel sucker in a negative context but first rule of being in a break is to do as much work as he who is rolling the least. It might result in the group getting eaten up but then you learn who and who not to get into breaks with in the future. Over time the person will get a rep as poison to a break and it will backfire on them. Don't get me wrong, i hate it when i'm in a break and someone is hiding at the back but in the end i have a choice about what i do about it. I can sit up and call their bluff or drag them to the finish line and complain about doing so.

For tonight i like Nibali's chances as a roughie, climb with 11 to go and then steep descent to the base of the Mur. Nibali descends like a demon and if he can get 10 seconds at the base of the Mur he might be able to hold on.

 

[Freakie]

Nice writeup secular bicep. I get the feeling you are using the term wheel sucker in a negative context but first rule of being in a break is to do as much work as he who is rolling the least. It might result in the group getting eaten up but then you learn who and who not to get into breaks with in the future. Over time the person will get a rep as poison to a break and it will backfire on them. Don't get me wrong, i hate it when i'm in a break and someone is hiding at the back but in the end i have a choice about what i do about it. I can sit up and call their bluff or drag them to the finish line and complain about doing so.

For tonight i like Nibali's chances as a roughie, climb with 11 to go and then steep descent to the base of the Mur. Nibali descends like a demon and if he can get 10 seconds at the base of the Mur he might be able to hold on.

Someone sits on my wheel I will keep hitting them till they start pulling or they blow.

 

[Secular Bicep]

The Classic example was a few years ago in the TDF with Evans before he changed his ways.

It was Stage 9 up to Briancon, I recall. The one that Soler won.

Evans wanted people to do work and got pissed off when they didn't. They were giving Evans a taste of his own medicine. It was okay for him to sit on wheels but he then get pissed off when people did the same?

It was either that stage or a stage that Rasmussen won. One of the two. I know I have it on DVD somewhere as I recorded that tour.

Thankfully, Evans has grown since then and started to learn you need to attack and help out. That's why he is favourite for the Giro. He has found an attacking self and changed the way he's ridden.

 

[Secular Bicep]

Someone sits on my wheel I will keep hitting them till they start pulling or they blow.

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/blog-article/117552/Pull-a-turn-will-ya

 

[Cruiser23]

Finally Eurosports get their act together. Scheduled to broadcast Fleche Wallonne at 10pm but just started. 60km to go, 6 in the break away one minute and a half ahead of the peleton who are closing.

 

[Secular Bicep]

I'll find a live feed on the net with 30km to go.

Cheers!

 

[Cruiser23]

Gap down to 1 minute, 50km to go. Saxo Bank doing the work but now Ivanov has taken off and split the peleton a bit.

Martin struggling.

 

[Cruiser23]

Peleton backing off, 1.47 behind with G2 1 minute behind the leading 3.

 

[Cruiser23]

LOL who said Martin was struggling?

Somewhat taken off, been closely followed by Ivanov.

Now their brought back

EDIT - E.Martinez, Ivanov and Martin taken off again.

 

[Cruiser23]

Ivanov doing a heap of work trying to attack and break the peleton. So far he hasn't suceeded, been brought back a couple of times.

 

[Cruiser23]

Popovych has injured his knee after a crash earlier in the race.

 

[Cruiser23]

Andy Schleck off 30km followed by Contador.

Did a fair bit of damage. 20-30 riders left at the top of the short but steep climb. 30km to go, 2 climbs left.

 

[Secular Bicep]

Just switched on the coverage now.

The race situation looks like it has about 10 in the lead, with the remainder of the peloton not far behind?

 

[Cruiser23]

Yep, 20 odd seconds though i think it's more 4-5 riders.

Your fella is trying to bridge that gap SB.

 

[Secular Bicep]

Yep, 20 odd seconds.

Your fella is trying to bridge that gap SB.

Kreuziger?

That main peloton will catch the escapees. It's way too big. Although if the gap is still over 10 seconds at the next climb, it's looking good for the escapees.

 

[Cruiser23]

Kreuziger?

That main peloton will catch the escapees. It's way too big. Although if the gap is still over 10 seconds at the next climb, it's looking good for the escapees.

Kolobnev, just got brought back.

Reckon they'll be caught. 25km left, Astana pushing the pace, Contador looked really good on that last climb.

 

[Secular Bicep]

The final climb does not suit Contador as he is not a punchy rider like the others. He needs it steeper and longer, plus he's coming back from surgery and his form isn't there.

Frank Schleck sacrificing himself for his brother. Gotto love that.

 

[Secular Bicep]

The thing is, in races such as this, a gap of 20 seconds is enough for them to win. But when the attacks happen on the climb, that can easily be brought back. They should be caught but stranger things have happened.

As I have joined this late, where is Kreuziger. In the lead group?

Bloody Cycling News. Can't trust them. They only have listed 3 in the lead when there is 4 and they have said Frank Schleck rides for Ag2r LOL.

 

[Cruiser23]

Ivanov off again.

 

[Secular Bicep]

I'll be curious to see how Gerrans does. He didn't have the legs on Sunday and there are sky riders present and accounted for near the front end of the main field.