Analysis Are the Cats a Fraud

Remove this Banner Ad

Shooter#17

Team Captain
May 9, 2015
363
438
AFL Club
Melbourne
Now now, let's not go further back than 2022, otherwise we go back further than last year and remember that Melbourne were a joke of a club for half a century and someone might bring up 2011.

Back to the pack with you.
Ok lets bring up 2018, you can have the 2 after the siren regular season wins but what happened in the finals? Lets try to keep things relevant instead of bringing up games over a decade old.
Look Melbourne could only dream of having the trophy cabinet of the cats between the mid 60s and 2000s as they were such a powerhouse....
 

Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
264
575
State of Constant Anxiety
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
East Fremantle
We have scored 16 less points than Melbourne for the season and have conceded about 200 less and our midfield is fairly average so it’s a mystery as to how we’ve done this with such a bad front and back 6
Wrong way around but right sentiment.

Geelong have conceded 16 less points than Melbourne - arguably putting our backline on par with theirs; but we've scored almost 200 more - due to the fact that we actually have a forwardline.

Geelong are also #1 in the comp for least scores conceded from inside 50s, and #1 in the comp for scores from inside 50's, so the bookends go alright.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Falcon3518

Premiership Player
Suspended
Mar 13, 2022
3,198
1,680
AFL Club
Richmond
We have scored 16 less points than Melbourne for the season and have conceded about 200 less and our midfield is fairly average so it’s a mystery as to how we’ve done this with such a bad front and back 6

GMHBA


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

Shooter#17

Team Captain
May 9, 2015
363
438
AFL Club
Melbourne
Oh, like how Geelong beat Collingwood, Richmond and Carlton at the MCG?

That's a good point, thank you for that.
And that's all you've got for the year? WOW you beat the sides in 7th and 8th plus one full of kids that blew a 40 point lead and lost the following week to the eagles.
What an achievement i can see why you are the raging favourites with that form line
 

Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
264
575
State of Constant Anxiety
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
East Fremantle
And that's all you've got for the year? WOW you beat the sides in 7th and 8th plus one full of kids that blew a 40 point lead and lost the following week to the eagles.
What an achievement i can see why you are the raging favourites with that form line
As opposed to the club who lost to Collingwood twice, instead of beating them?

It's okay I get it. You hate Geelong. You love Melbourne. You hate Goodwin. You love Ben Brown. You contradict every point you make. You're trolling for the bite. So, you have fun pissing in the wind, I'm off.
 

Lavender Bushranger

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 25, 2005
9,949
14,480
Grogansville
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Part of me thinks that Geelong are no better than they've been in previous years (which is just good, no more) and the rest of the comp is just very mediocre.

I mean, Sydney, Freo and Collingwood in the top 4? Freo and Sydney are just developing teams, and Collingwood have a % of 104 or something!


There's something really strange about this season.
 

demondavey

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 18, 2005
27,427
22,897
AFL Club
Melbourne
Looking at Geelong of 2022 on the surface they appear sensational, however if you dig a little under the surface you will notice one of the most biased draws of all time for a side coming off a Preliminary Final.

  • Sides they have doubled up against, Roos, Eagles, Saints, Dogs and Power all outside the 8.
  • Of the 7 games only against top 8 sides 3 have been in Geelong, 3 at he MCG and only 1 against the swans away which was a comfortable loss.
  • In the 15 games played since round 8 they have played 12 sides outside the 8 with games against Richmond and struggling Carlton at the G and Melbourne at Skilled.
  • 5 of their last 8 games at Skilled
  • Last 5 games against sides outside the 8.
Honestly mate, who GAF.
 

Jackington

Back Flank Battler
Sep 23, 2021
264
575
State of Constant Anxiety
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Part of me thinks that Geelong are no better than they've been in previous years (which is just good, no more) and the rest of the comp is just very mediocre.

I mean, Sydney, Freo and Collingwood in the top 4? Freo and Sydney are just developing teams, and Collingwood have a % of 104 or something!


There's something really strange about this season.
I'll agree the comp is mediocre, but Geelong definitely better in my opinion. Stengle is probably AA, De Koning probably runner-up rising star. Atkins playing like a new recruit, and a full pre-season into Cameron. And almost more importantly Chris Scott has remembered how to coach.

But I think Sydney are only just getting the attention they deserve now that Collingwood's streak has ended. Will likely get two home finals, where they've now won seven on the trot, and have a really good mix of youth and experience. They're the side to watch for me.
 

Shooter#17

Team Captain
May 9, 2015
363
438
AFL Club
Melbourne
As opposed to the club who lost to Collingwood twice, instead of beating them?

It's okay I get it. You hate Geelong. You love Melbourne. You hate Goodwin. You love Ben Brown. You contradict every point you make. You're trolling for the bite. So, you have fun pissing in the wind, I'm off.
Na i don't hate Geelong, I hate Carlton, Collingwood & Essendon, i don't care enough about Geelong to hate them.
I also certainly don't love Ben Brown I think he's an uncoordinated Giraffe but he's record shows at his best he's every bit as good as any forward in the game bar Buddy.
I also don't hate Goodwin but i definitely think he's an average coach at best that won a flag last year due to having the best list in the game by a long way, and having Burgess getting them so much fitter than anyone else.
 

demondavey

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 18, 2005
27,427
22,897
AFL Club
Melbourne
Na i don't hate Geelong, I hate Carlton, Collingwood & Essendon, i don't care enough about Geelong to hate them.
I also certainly don't love Ben Brown I think he's an uncoordinated Giraffe but he's record shows at his best he's every bit as good as any forward in the game bar Buddy.
I also don't hate Goodwin but i definitely think he's an average coach at best that won a flag last year due to having the best list in the game by a long way, and having Burgess getting them so much fitter than anyone else.
Goodwin didn’t get lucky. Goodwin is stubborn, but he didn’t get lucky.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
35,113
38,922
AFL Club
Geelong
LOL not a mystery at all, that's what this entire thread is all about 🤓, all sides don't have the luxury of playing 4 games against the 2 sides that have won 4 games for the season between them...

See, occasionally, very occasionally, I get things wrong. Like I did with my initial figures

In realising this, I discovered the following.

If you remove games against West Coast and North Melbourne - and it was very easy to remove the second West Coast game, as we can neither score, nor concede points in games that haven’t happened yet, the teams’ output looks thus:


Melbourne
84.6 points for
70.26 against

Geelong
92.8 points for
71.4 against

So essentially you have a slightly better defence that concedes 1 less point per game, and a definitively inferior attack that scores 8 points less per game.

So I will ask again.

Of our middle is average, which it is, and our back 6 and front 6 are both vastly inferior to Melbourne’s, why, even when you remove games against the two teams you cited, do both our attack and defence stack up so well against Melbourne’s?



Even if you limit it to games against other top 8 sides:

Melbourne - 75.7 for, 72.8 against
Geelong - 84.5 for, 77.2 against


So just for clarity, please explain why if our forward and back halves are so inferior to Melbourne’s, why does any angle you want to analyse show that we are at the very least a better front 6 and close behind you in defence?

We haven’t played 4 games against those sides. We’ve played 3.
 
Last edited:

Duskfire

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2007
7,584
7,078
Perth
AFL Club
Geelong
LOL not a mystery at all, that's what this entire thread is all about 🤓, all sides don't have the luxury of playing 4 games against the 2 sides that have won 4 games for the season between them...

If Geelong had played two other teams and somehow lost to them, they would still be top?
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
28,944
39,892
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
Looking at Geelong of 2022 on the surface they appear sensational, however if you dig a little under the surface you will notice one of the most biased draws of all time for a side coming off a Preliminary Final.

  • Sides they have doubled up against, Roos, Eagles, Saints, Dogs and Power all outside the 8.
  • Of the 7 games only against top 8 sides 3 have been in Geelong, 3 at he MCG and only 1 against the swans away which was a comfortable loss.
  • In the 15 games played since round 8 they have played 12 sides outside the 8 with games against Richmond and struggling Carlton at the G and Melbourne at Skilled.
  • 5 of their last 8 games at Skilled
  • Last 5 games against sides outside the 8.
If they have overachieved we'll soon find out. The best team of the year will be crowned at the end of September.

They definetely deserve their Home and Away season admiration though. To this point, they couldn't have done much more or done it much better. Now they just need to convert that into a Premiership, or it'll be a little bit of same old, same old of their recent history.
 

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
35,113
38,922
AFL Club
Geelong
See, occasionally, very occasionally, I get things wrong. Like I did with my initial figures

In realising this, I discovered the following.

If you remove games against West Coast and North Melbourne - and it was very easy to remove the second West Coast game, as we can neither score, nor concede points in games that haven’t happened yet, the teams’ output looks thus:


Melbourne
84.6 points for
70.26 against

Geelong
92.8 points for
71.4 against

So essentially you have a slightly better defence that concedes 1 less point per game, and a definitively inferior attack that scores 8 points less per game.

So I will ask again.

Of our middle is average, which it is, and our back 6 and front 6 are both vastly inferior to Melbourne’s, why, even when you remove games against the two teams you cited, do both our attack and defence stack up so well against Melbourne’s?



Even if you limit it to games against other top 8 sides:

Melbourne - 75.7 for, 72.8 against
Geelong - 84.5 for, 77.2 against


So just for clarity, please explain why if our forward and back halves are so inferior to Melbourne’s, why does any angle you want to analyse show that we are at the very least a better front 6 and close behind you in defence?

We haven’t played 4 games against those sides. We’ve played 3.


Shooter I can’t help but noticed you haven’t answered my question
 

SuperVolley11

Club Legend
Jun 2, 2011
1,357
1,094
AFL Club
Geelong
Is there anywhere to find a ladder if you only count the first time a team plays another team for the year, I’m assuming all games in round 23 are double ups at this stage.
 

Remove this Banner Ad