Opinion Are the Demons heading for finals or bottom 10 in 2025?

[Mr Meow]

A 33 year old that is the reigning AA ruckman ? Again. He's the last player I'm concerned about.

It's fair to question Oliver and Petracca.

What if they have AA quality years ? It's hardly a stretch.

Petracca easily could.

 

[Xtreme]

Another rib injury to Trac, he is broken and will spend the whole year wishing he left the club.

Dees will struggle through to about 8-9 wins at most.

Had the perfect excuse to exit the club last year. I can only see it ending in tears (more The Good Son vs Star Wars Episode 9)

 

[Mr Meow]

A cracked rib is a common injury and won't effect round one.

So may dullards post here.

Just argue your points instead of going on the attack about how stupid everyone is.

You'll look like a genius when Oliver wins a Brownlow and Melbourne win the grand final by 10 goals, but until then everyone who argues otherwise isn't automatically thick.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Just argue your points instead of going on the attack about how stupid everyone is.

You'll look like a genius when Oliver wins a Brownlow and Melbourne win the grand final by 10 goals, but until then everyone who argues otherwise isn't automatically thick.

With a typo too
Hmmm

 

[WCE777]

They still rely too much on Gawn, Oliver, Petracca and May imo.
I think their best case is similar to 2024, being 1-2 wins off finals

I have them around 11-12 wins 2 wins out of finals

 

[Dazb86]

Entirely dependant on their best players form. Last year was a disaster with Oliver & Petracca. Fix their issues and they'll be a hell of a lot better through the midfield which should lead to more scoring even with some pretty bad personnel in the f50.

I don't think May and Lever are the absolute powerhouse they once were which could be an issue.

Tipping they return to the top 8 with a motivated Oliver and injury free Petracca but probably don't really give the flag a shake.

 

[stallon]

A 33 year old that is the reigning AA ruckman ? Again. He's the last player I'm concerned about.

It's fair to question Oliver and Petracca.

What if they have AA quality years ? It's hardly a stretch.

Gawn winning AA was a bit of a reach, Xerri and Marshall were definitely better, but anyways.
Gawn is getting older, you really need Oliver and Petracca to get back to playing like A-graders to scrape into the finals imo. Not a good start for Petracca with the news today either.

 

[stallon]

I have them around 11-12 wins 2 wins out of finals

I think that's the absolute best case.
Aside from Petracca and Oliver I dont see much in the way of natural Improvement coming their way. I'd expect a fall off from the likes of Gawn and May to be more impactful.

They have a bunch of kids but they're still young

 

[markm106]

Talent is absolutely there. Trac and Clarry back to somewhere near their best would be huge after last year. Despite the recent setback I can see Trac having a very good year. And Clarry so far on track to be far better off than last season. I’m pretty confident we can bounce back. I don’t think the likes of Gawn and May will fall off a cliff. And Petty back to defence is a big win for the team. He was really good down back in 2021.
I also think we have some talented young players coming through.

 

[Trav 20]

Gawn winning AA was a bit of a reach, Xerri and Marshall were definitely better, but anyways.
Gawn is getting older, you really need Oliver and Petracca to get back to playing like A-graders to scrape into the finals imo. Not a good start for Petracca with the news today either.

Gawn was clearly the best ruck by the metrics that count. I can go through them if you like, although it's already been done. Marshall ? He's a terrible tap ruckman. You really need to pay closer attention.

Yes, a cracked rib in early January will surely ruin Petracca's season.

 

[stallon]

Gawn was clearly the best ruck by the metrics that count. I can go through them if you like, although it's already been done. Marshall ? He's a terrible tap ruckman. You really need to pay closer attention.

Yes, a cracked rib in early January will surely ruin Petracca's season.

Marshall was fine in his tap work, but if you look at their game overall you can't deny Marshall would've been a deserved AA ruckman for the last 2 years.
Xerri would've been my pick anyway

 

[Trav 20]

Marshall was fine in his tap work, but if you look at their game overall you can't deny Marshall would've been a deserved AA ruckman for the last 2 years.
Xerri would've been my pick anyway

No he's not. You clearly take no interest in ruckwork to even make that comment. You need to watch footy more closely.

Not to mention that this year Gawn gave Marshall one of the greatest baths I've ever seen from a ruck battle. Saints fans were making memes about it (see below). Look up who got the 3 Brownlow votes.

Marshall is a good player, but he gets beaten in ruck contests by the best rucks. It's why he didn't make the AA squad of 40. You should know this stuff.

 

[stallon]

No he's not. You clearly take no interest in ruckwork to even make that comment. You need to watch footy more closely.

Not to mention that this year Gawn gave Marshall one of the greatest baths I've ever seen from a ruck battle. Saints fans were making memes about it (see below). Look up who got the 3 Brownlow votes.

Marshall is a good player, but he gets beaten in ruck contests by the best rucks. It's why he didn't make the AA squad of 40. You should know this stuff.

View attachment 2201456

I didnt say Marshall was good at the hitouts, I said he was fine.

His overall game is very good, despite his tap work which is just fine

 

[Kapow!!!]

Interesting club. With the perceived turmoil, injuries and apparent decline in standards and a young core not ready to take the next step you'd logically think they're probably going to be in that awkward lower mid table purgatory but historically in a lot of sports, teams with these sort of question marks over them with a proven talented older core have made fools of everyone.

With the engine room they have and the likes of Fritsch, Pickett and JVR still developing in their misfiring forward line they could very well take the competition by storm again and be early contenders and the doubts will disappear quickly.

Personally I'm going to hedge my bet and say they'll either be 1) a breakaway top 2 team, fading into 3-6 by the end of the season and make a prelim without really feeling like the best team in it for the last 2 months of the season or 2) they'll just kinda be annoying for a lot of finals contenders, jag a few wins against top opposition and be mathematically able to make finals for nearly the whole season but inexplicably drop games to lesser competition with half hearted efforts and fall into that aforementioned lower mid table area. Either way I feel injuries will probably play a part in both scenarios.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I have no confidence in Melbourne but teams like Fremantle, Carlton, Collingwood aren’t exactly known for being consistent and can finish above them. Who knows what Hawthorn do, but are being hyped up. Dogs may decide to have finals off too.

Otherwise I can only see Adelaide coming up front the lower ranks if Nicks has a clue

 

[voorhees]

trending down more then heading up
they didn't grab there opportunity to dominate the comp for a extended period when they should have.
mid table finish ... 9th - 12th

 

[Trav 20]

I didnt say Marshall was good at the hitouts, I said he was fine.

His overall game is very good, despite his tap work which is just fine

I was a tad too harsh saying that Marshall was ''terrible'' in ruck contests, but I'd argue he was below ''fine'' and at best middling to poor.

If you look at the raw data, he and Gawn contested approx. 80 ruck contests per game. On average, Gawn was 25-30% superior from such contests. That's a significant discrepancy. Those metrics include winning the ruck contest, hitouts to advantage and percentage hitouts to advantage.

When one factors in that Gawn averaged double the contested marks then that's a pretty big win across the season in the stats that rucks are mainly judged on.

Marshall's all-round game is great, but so is Gawn's and there's not enough disparity to get Marshall to Gawn's level when one considers the discrepancy in the actual ruck arena.

 

[Trav 20]

Interesting club. With the perceived turmoil, injuries and apparent decline in standards and a young core not ready to take the next step you'd logically think they're probably going to be in that awkward lower mid table purgatory but historically in a lot of sports, teams with these sort of question marks over them with a proven talented older core have made fools of everyone.

With the engine room they have and the likes of Fritsch, Pickett and JVR still developing in their misfiring forward line they could very well take the competition by storm again and be early contenders and the doubts will disappear quickly.

Personally I'm going to hedge my bet and say they'll either be 1) a breakaway top 2 team, fading into 3-6 by the end of the season and make a prelim without really feeling like the best team in it for the last 2 months of the season or 2) they'll just kinda be annoying for a lot of finals contenders, jag a few wins against top opposition and be mathematically able to make finals for nearly the whole season but inexplicably drop games to lesser competition with half hearted efforts and fall into that aforementioned lower mid table area. Either way I feel injuries will probably play a part in both scenarios.

That's a fair summation, especially from a Freo supporter who's recently seen our worst.

Opposition supporters are forecasting a glass half empty scenario, which is understandable, so I'll assume glass half full.

And if I do (assuming best players back to their best) then I can note our defence is a massive strength. May, Lever, Petty and Salem formed the nucleus of indisputably the best defence in the league in 2021-23. They'll be the cornerstone in 2025 along with McVee, Windsor, and others (perhaps Tom McDonald). I'd argue no other defence is superior.

Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Rivers, Pickett ( who will play a lot more midfield) plus wings Langdon, and a newcomer from Brisbane, Sharp, is a strong midfield division. Bowey, Windsor and Lindsay will also run through the middle at times.

Can van Rooyen, Fritsch, Turner, Melksham, Langford, potentially Jefferson, plus midfielders, and Pickett/Chandler, hit the scoreboard enough. I agree it's the question mark. Only Ben Brown is missing from 2021.

Top 10 draft picks often come in and have an immediate impact and we have two in Langford and Lindsay (11) entering the fray. I expect both to play most games.

I agree there's a lot of question marks, but equally a lot of optimism from some Dees fans, including me.

If our best players are largely injury free I have zero doubt we'll play finals. If they don't we'll be like every other team in the same boat, near the bottom.

 

[stallon]

I was a tad too harsh saying that Marshall was ''terrible'' in ruck contests, but I'd argue he was below ''fine'' and at best middling to poor.

If you look at the raw data, he and Gawn contested approx. 80 ruck contests per game. On average, Gawn was 25-30% superior from such contests. That's a significant discrepancy. Those metrics include winning the ruck contest, hitouts to advantage and percentage hitouts to advantage.

When one factors in that Gawn averaged double the contested marks then that's a pretty big win across the season in the stats that rucks are mainly judged on.

Marshall's all-round game is great, but so is Gawn's and there's not enough disparity to get Marshall to Gawn's level when one considers the discrepancy in the actual ruck arena.

Gawn is 7cm taller than Marshall, hes going to use his strengths to win more hitouts and get contested marks.
Marshall has a different game, no other ruckman has his endurance or workrate. Hes a 201cm midfieler, with more all round stats including things like pressure acts, uncontested marks, and metres gained(from his uncontested disposals). This is ideal for StKildas gamestyle

Most hitouts doesnt necessarily mean better ruckman

 

[Trav 20]

Gawn is 7cm taller than Marshall, hes going to use his strengths to win more hitouts and get contested marks.
Marshall has a different game, no other ruckman has his endurance or workrate. Hes a 201cm midfieler, with more all round stats including things like pressure acts, uncontested marks, and metres gained(from his uncontested disposals). This is ideal for StKildas gamestyle

Most hitouts doesnt necessarily mean better ruckman

You're completely under-selling Gawn's all-round game, which is comparable to Marshall's and conveniently overlooking actual ruck statistics.

No-one is saying that Marshall isn't a very good player, but this is a comparison for All Australian ruck.

If you're very average in the ruck you're not winning the All Australian ruck position.

Pressure acts ? LOL Yes, because that's a really important stat for 200cm plus players.

 

[stallon]

You're completely under-selling Gawn's all-round game, which is comparable to Marshall's and conveniently overlooking actual ruck statistics.

Im not saying Gawn is bad at all.

No-one is saying that Marshall isn't a very good player, but this is a comparison for All Australian ruck.

If you're very average in the ruck you're not winning the All Australian ruck position.

Tim English??

Pressure acts ? LOL Yes, because that's a really important stat for 200cm plus players.

Its still an important stat.
Ruckmen are allowed and encouraged even to impact the game outside ruck contests and contested marks generally...

 

[Trav 20]

Im not saying Gawn is bad at all.

Tim English??

Its still an important stat.
Ruckmen are allowed and encouraged even to impact the game outside ruck contests and contested marks generally...

It's funny you mention English.

2023 was head and shoulders his best year and the only other ruck in the conversation for AA was Marshall, who made the squad of 40. There were literally no other rucks in the conversation for AA.

English was definitately better in a year with a weak field.

 

[Pomsta]

Gawn was clearly the best ruck by the metrics that count. I can go through them if you like, although it's already been done. Marshall ? He's a terrible tap ruckman. You really need to pay closer attention.

Yes, a cracked rib in early January will surely ruin Petracca's season.

If it was anyone else but Petracca with the rib injury I would agree with you. However with the horrendous injury last year a rib injury is the last thing you want for Petracca.

 

[Trav 20]

If it was anyone else but Petracca with the rib injury I would agree with you. However with the horrendous injury last year a rib injury is the last thing you want for Petracca.

What's your prognosis, Doctor ?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Something rotten in the state of Denmark.

Can't see Dees playing finals & Goodwin's last year as coach.