Are We a Chance for the Spoon?

[Rave Slave]

Thought I'd have a quick look at the horrific prospect that is us potentially 'winning' the spoon. A few weeks ago we were all saying 'Thank Christ for Richmond'. The concerning thing is Richmond seem to be pulling their s**t together and could potentially sneak a few more wins.

How many more victories until we're 'safe'?

Could both Richmond and the Crows avoid it?

Really I think it's down to us, the Tigers and the Eagles as to who's gonna finish last. Here's the respective draws.


Bold = Should win
Italics = Could win
Captain = Goodwin (lulz)


Adelaide Fixture


FREMANTLE - A chance due to Tyson's farewell (but highly unlikely)

HAWTHORN (a) - Would have to be a chance but it's away so who knows

MELBOURNE - Looms as a must win

ESSENDON - Again we're a chance due to it being at home but Essendon's form recently has been excellent.

WEST COAST EAGLES (a) - Bogey side away from home but the reality is the Eagles are garbage (though 6 goals better at Subiaco).

GEELONG CATS - 10 goal + loss

PORT ADELAIDE - Who knows which Port will rock up. Always 50/50

RICHMOND (a) - Season definer right here

WESTERN BULLDOGS - Loss

BRISBANE LIONS (a) - Likely loss

COLLINGWOOD (a) - 10 goal + loss

ST KILDA - loss

So looking at that I give us 2 games we 'should' win and 5 games we're a chance in (probably 4 but I'm delerious with the Tyson Edwards farewell). Looking at our last 4 games of the season I literally may stop watching football as of the end of round 18 since I don't think the last 4 games will make for pleasurable viewing. Sadly enough the 2 games we'd be approaching as 'likely wins' the opposition would surely have pencilled in as definites.



West Coast Fixture:


GEELONG CATS - Being at Subi means it'll only be a 10 goal loss.

RICHMOND (a) - Average side at home, worst side in the comp away. A chance to lose this.

WESTERN BULLDOGS - loss

COLLINGWOOD (a) - 10 goals + loss

ADELAIDE - Have had their way with us when it counts for years now and would view this as a likely win.

ESSENDON (a) - loss

CARLTON - A chance at home but likely a Blues win

FREMANTLE - Haven't beaten Freo in a derby since 1923. Not likely to change.

BRISBANE LIONS - At home and against a side they play well against would have to be a chance

PORT ADELAIDE (a) - Eagles always lose to Port. It's like a rule of thumb.

NORTH MELBOURNE - North are poo - pretty much more poo than the Eagles.

GEELONG CATS (a) - Cricket score coming up against them

So 2 they should win and 3 they could win. I see a lot of them play and TBH a spoon would be pretty befitting considering the football they've played this year. Nick Nat is still a freak and Kennedy and Lecras are awesome but their Midfield minus Kerr is just horrid.



Richmond Fixture:


WEST COAST EAGLES - Would be licking their chops at this one. Eagles have lost 23 of their last 25 away from Subiaco.

BRISBANE LIONS (a) - loss

SYDNEY SWANS - Some kind of silly chance playing the Swans in Melbourne with the injuries they've got to key players.

FREMANTLE - loss

NORTH MELBOURNE - Have only put it down as a 50/50 but I think on current form Richmond would win this.

COLLINGWOOD - loss

ADELAIDE - At Home and pushed us for 3 quarters at AAMI. They would be pencilling this in as a win.

MELBOURNE - Beat Melbourne last year on the death and would have to be a silly kind of chance for an upset

CARLTON - loss

ST KILDA - loss

PORT ADELAIDE - Beat them at home. Are a worse side than Port but gets 50/50 just because WTF knows which Port will rock up.


2 Games they should win and 4 very winnable 50/50 games. Only leave Melbourne once for the rest of the year and would have to consider themselves a chance of avoiding the spoon looking at their draw coming home.

 

[Rave Slave]

So what do we all think?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Richmond will drag themselves out of last place and be replaced by West Coast or us

Really where we finish depends on our next few weeks because our last 4 are pretty horrific with only the Brisbane game providing any glimmer of a chance.

So what's your bottom 3 as of the end of Round 22?

for me:

14. Adelaide (ever the optimist)
15. Richmond
16. West Coast

 

[birdmanptr]

God I hope not and I don't think we will.Maybe 8-10 wins for the year ????but having said that 3 quarter time last week I thought we had some chance of winning and got blown out of the water.

 

[subaru]

We get Port after they come back from Darwin.
Thats a plus,
I am still thinking we can win more than that.

If we win tomorrow , I want one retirement and a farewell game every week til the end of the year. We got the list to do this ...don't say it can't be done !!!!! (joking)

We beat Freo by 117 points last year here...are they a twenty goal better side ..are we 20 goals worse?

 

[Rave Slave]

We beat Freo by 117 points last year here...are they a twenty goal better side ..are we 20 goals worse?

Both

 

[Rave Slave]

God I hope not and I don't think we will.Maybe 8-10 wins for the year ????but having said that 3 quarter time last week I thought we had some chance of winning and got blown out of the water.

Looking at the draw worries me. Best case scenario we recapture our form of last year and charge out the bottom 4 but worst case scenario would see us in a whole spot of bother approaching the last 4 games of the year

 

[bigburger]

So what do we all think?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Richmond will drag themselves out of last place and be replaced by West Coast or us

Really where we finish depends on our next few weeks because our last 4 are pretty horrific with only the Brisbane game providing any glimmer of a chance.

So what's your bottom 3 as of the end of Round 22?

for me:

14. Adelaide (ever the optimist)
15. Richmond
16. West Coast

Hahaha, even though I think we're s**t we aren't anywhere near as bad as Richmond and personally I can see us finishing ahead of a few others as well you and the Tigers.

 

[Rave Slave]

Hahaha, even though I think we're s**t we aren't anywhere near as bad as Richmond and personally I can see us finishing ahead of a few others as well you and the Tigers.

Burgs mate, I've watched a lot of your games. A LOT.

Your midfielders are all one paced (if not downright slow) they have the worst disposal in the league and aside from Priddis you don't really have any exceptional ball winners.

Lecras is a star, Kennedy is a star, Cox is a star, Naitanui is a freak - that's where it ends for now.

I reckon your mob and my mob will duke it out for the title of AFL's most poo.

Which games out of the ones above that I've listed do you reckon you'll win?

 

[BACCS]

Don't be fooled by Richmond, they will still finish last quite easily. NM will give them a run for their money, how on earth we lost to them still confuses me.

 

[EaglesFlyingHigh]

Have you checked the ladder lately??

YES, you are a HUGE chance to claim the hallowed spoon.

It will be out of Adelaide and Richmond, Richmond have showed what they are capable of against Port and Richmond.

Sorry, but I'd be backing the Crows for the the wood

 

[Rave Slave]

Have you checked the ladder lately??

YES, you are a HUGE chance to claim the hallowed spoon.

It will be out of Adelaide and Richmond, Richmond have showed what they are capable of against Port and Richmond.

Sorry, but I'd be backing the Crows for the the wood

Mate like I said to Burgs I see a LOT of the football you guys play and you're not exactly sitting safe one game above us

Could be an interesting next few weeks.

 

[Sir Vlado]

Have you checked the ladder lately??

YES, you are a HUGE chance to claim the hallowed spoon.

It will be out of Adelaide and Richmond, Richmond have showed what they are capable of against Port and Richmond.

Sorry, but I'd be backing the Crows for the the wood

Richmond smashing themselves counts as a win for them?



We won't get the spoon, I'm sure of it.

 

[bigburger]

Burgs mate, I've watched a lot of your games. A LOT.

Your midfielders are all one paced (if not downright slow) they have the worst disposal in the league and aside from Priddis you don't really have any exceptional ball winners.

Lecras is a star, Kennedy is a star, Cox is a star, Naitanui is a freak - that's where it ends for now.

I reckon your mob and my mob will duke it out for the title of AFL's most poo.

Which games out of the ones above that I've listed do you reckon you'll win?

I reckon we're a good chance in all of our home games besides the one tomorrow (that said if Geelong played the grandy tomorrow they'd belt anyone imo). I base that simply because we are much better at home than away as already stated. On top of that I think we will beat Richmond and possibly you blokes.

I think you've undersold us as having only 4 good players. I agree with the four you've mentioned but I personally think the likes of Schofield, Hurn, Butler, Glass (still has a lot to give but just injured at the moment), Swift, Shuey (if he can get back on the track).

 

[Rave Slave]

I reckon we're a good chance in all of our home games besides the one tomorrow (that said if Geelong played the grandy tomorrow they'd belt anyone imo). I base that simply because we are much better at home than away as already stated. On top of that I think we will beat Richmond and possibly you blokes.

I think you've undersold us as having only 4 good players. I agree with the four you've mentioned but I personally think the likes of Schofield, Hurn, Butler, Glass (still has a lot to give but just injured at the moment), Swift, Shuey (if he can get back on the track).

I don't doubt the quality of your list/future list bud.

It's the right now I'm concerned with. (I still think Masten will be an elite level AFL footballer). Hurn was an oversight and Glass is an exceptional Full Back but the reality is he's underdone this year and even when he's played he's been underperforming due to carrying an injury. I prefer Waters to Butler and Shuey will be a star but not yet.

I wouldn't be shocked if you beat us at all (it is at Subi) thing is I can see you dropping other games at home too. To avoid the spoon mix completely I think really you guys need to win 2 of Bulldogs, Brisbane and Carlton at home. Certainly a possibility but also a chance you could drop all 3. If you were to drop all 3 you'd be stuffed because you're a 6 or 7 goal worse side away from Subi.

 

[dplggr47]

no chance. Adelaide are a decent side who have just been playing poorly.

 

[Mungo Sugars]

I reckon you guys will win heaps more than two games for the rest of the year, so I think you're safe.

But if you're level with the Tigers going in to the last round you might be in a bit of trouble. Don't forget that Port is playing Richmond in round 22, and if we're no chance for the finals we might gift them a game!

Just kidding! We wouldn't lose on purpose just to give you the spoon.

Would we?!

 

[taylor_walker_13]

The wooden spoon wouldnt be so bad at least Neil Craig could pile it in with his minor premiership

 

[Huntercrow]

No, I think as from this week we will win more than we lose and just miss the finals.

 

[EaglesFlyingHigh]

Richmond smashing themselves counts as a win for them?



We won't get the spoon, I'm sure of it.

Sorry, meant St Kilda

Don't be so sure...

 

[Sir Vlado]

Gee, if we keep playing this ferocious and fast style of football for the rest of the season, we could be able to win half of the remaining games. Suddenly next week and the next couple of weeks after that don't seem as unlikely as before.

Try not to become over confident, but that was a great win.

 

[cmndstab]

A chance? Of course we are, we're 3-8. Richmond doesn't have to win many more games than we do to overtake us.

However, the fact that we're not bottom right now, and only percentage behind West Coast, speaks more as to the lack of quality in those two sides than anything real positivity about us. I'm delighted with how we played against Freo but unless it becomes the norm, rather than a once-off, then it's only the sheer awfulness of Richmond that will save us from 16th place.


I'm quietly confident that we can expect form closer to the Freo match than the Kangaroos match for the remainder of the season, but if we don't, it's going to be a long 11 rounds.

 

[Vader]

I'd say that it's highly unlikely we'll take home the spoon. We're 2 games and 19% clear of Richmond.

Richmond's only win was a massive upset against Port. They've been uniformly awful all year and ANY wins they get will be massive upsets. The odds on them getting a 2nd win are far longer than them not winning again.

Adelaide on the other hand are finally starting to play football. Our last 3 games - Brisbane, St Kilda and Freo have been our best for the season, by a country mile. Even the loss to St Kilda was a better performance than the win over Richmond. The Crows have left it far too late to make the finals, but we're now performing as well as any team in the 5-12 band on the ladder. We'll win more games in the 2nd half of the season than we did in the first - but we're still only looking at 6-7 wins for the season at best, so don't get too excited.

I can see us jumping above West Coast, given that we're now level on points and trailing them by just 3%. I can't see anyone falling below Richmond.

 

[Macca19]

I think youll finish 8-10, depending on how much percentage you can make up.

Youll finish above us, thats for sure.

 

[johnnypanther]

I think we have more chance of making the finals than getting the spoon.
I'm tipping 9th spot possibly 10th depending on who wins the Showdown.

This week's game against Hawthorn could be a Custer's last stand in terms of our final's chances - if we win then conceivably we would only be 1 game out of the eight.

 

[Mismatched]

I think we have more chance of making the finals than getting the spoon.
I'm tipping 9th spot possibly 10th depending on who wins the Showdown.

This week's game against Hawthorn could be a Custer's last stand in terms of our final's chances - if we win then conceivably we would only be 1 game out of the eight.

Agree, our win-loss tally for the past 5 weeks is 3-2, with shades of our 09 form slowly starting to creep back into our game. Over the next four weeks we have Hawthorn, Melbourne, Essendon and West Coast, four very winnable games. If we carry on the form we showed in patches against the Saints and then for the whole match against Freo, then we would be a very good chance to win all four. Playing like that, we'd challenge all bar probably Geelong and maybe Collingwood.

If we can achieve the afore mentioned feat, we will be 7 wins and 8 losses and very much in the hunt for the 8. Lose just 1 with our final 7 matches and that's definitely lights out, if we go back to dishing out the poop we dished out against the Roos, then the Spoon is a very good chance.

At this stage I think we're probably a good chance of moving out of the bottom four to finish somewhere between 9 and 12, as we simply aren't as bad a side as our current 15th place would suggest, we are capable of a lot, lot more, but for whatever reason, we just have been unable to produce it.