Fixture Are we better off finishing second

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cfc19902010

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Melbourne v Collingwood at the g week 1 gives them a home final
Playing port gives us a true home final
 
Melbourne v Collingwood at the g week 1 gives them a home final
Playing port gives us a true home final

Yes but would you rather that home final in the QF or the prelim, because you likely can’t have both?

Play Port in the QF and win, and you probably have to play Melbourne in the prelim after they lose to Brisbane at the Gabba in a QF and then win a semi.
 

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It's only flawed if you start with the premise that the top team should start with an advantage over other teams in the finals.

So the only “system” that will show that it isn’t flawed is one where the end result has the top finisher winning the most flags? Why don’t we just bin the finals entirely?

PS. Need to also remove ‘21 from your pre-finals bye data. Don’t think we had one that year. So we are down to 5 series with the bye to review. Think we need a few more.


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That's the essence of it. Do you want a system that seeds finals team that gives a reward for finishing higher on the ladder or do you want to start the finals as a new comp where everyone is basically even. The current system is a mish mash that achieves neither.

For a seeded type system the old final 5 was about perfect as you can get but the lack of finals games would be unpalatabel to the AFL, 20 teams with two conferences doing a final 4 then the grand grand final would also work

If you want to start everyone on the same line it's pretty easy. No double chance, all games sudden death

1 v 8
2 v 7
3 v 6
4 v 5

and so on. 3 weeks of finals, all sudden death. If the AFL want a 4th week do a prefinals knockout 8 v 11 and 9 v 10 for the bottom 2 finals spots. Gives position down to 10 something to fight for and every one starts even.


We want finals though, I would never argue for 1st past the post
 
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That's the essence of it. Do you want a system that seeds finals team that gives a reward for finishing higher on the ladder or do you want to start the finals as a new comp where everyone is basically even. The current system is a mish mash that achieves neither.

For a seeded type system the old final 5 was about perfect as you can get but the lack of finals games would be unpalatabel to the AFL, 20 teams with two conferences doing a final 4 then the grand grand final would also work

If you want to start everyone on the same line it's pretty easy. No double, all games sudden death

1 v 8
2 v 7
3 v 6
4 v 5

and so on. 3 weeks of finals, all sudden death. If the AFL want a 4th week do a prefinals knockout 8 v 11 and 9 v 10 for the bottom 2 finals spots. Gives position down to 10 something to fight for and every one starts even.


We want finals though, I would never argue for 1st past the post
Don't hate the knockout system.
 

Looney

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Come to think of it, I think we should secure top spot by beating Essendon. If we lose and finish 2nd, there's a possibility Richmond is going to tank the game and lose to Port by over 150 points and we get pushed down to 3rd. We can't take that risk.
 
That's the essence of it. Do you want a system that seeds finals team that gives a reward for finishing higher on the ladder or do you want to start the finals as a new comp where everyone is basically even. The current system is a mish mash that achieves neither.

For a seeded type system the old final 5 was about perfect as you can get but the lack of finals games would be unpalatabel to the AFL, 20 teams with two conferences doing a final 4 then the grand grand final would also work

If you want to start everyone on the same line it's pretty easy. No double, all games sudden death

1 v 8
2 v 7
3 v 6
4 v 5

and so on. 3 weeks of finals, all sudden death. If the AFL want a 4th week do a prefinals knockout 8 v 11 and 9 v 10 for the bottom 2 finals spots. Gives position down to 10 something to fight for and every one starts even.


We want finals though, I would never argue for 1st past the post

I'd be happy with sudden death if only looking at the finals. But think some small advantages are necessary to ensure the end of the H&A isn't a farce and the top teams have something to play for. In the last month, the Pies have played more than enough dead rubbers for my liking - we would have been playing them since R15 if there was zero advantage in finishing higher. So I think the current system is a happy middle ground.
 
Explain the aberation of 92 then,we were equal top and finished 3 1 finals game and we were done.Got beaten by St Kilda who had a bye the final week before finals started. In 92 we finished 16 wins the same as the bulldogs and the Cats inferior % and we got bundled out it was the worst feeling ever as I was sure if all things were equal we would have won that season. I think with the advent of the bye before finals will lead to teams 5 to 8 being able to win if good enough,the bye will prove a great leveller it may not have so far but it will in the future and then you just have to be the best team in september.
2 was shocking for us but we didnt finish equal top we finished 3rd. The final six wasnt a bad system, it provided a reasonable seeding system but if 3 teams finish equal points one has to be 3rd place. No system can undo that. As to the bye, it was 15 teams, someone had to have a bye each week, just unlucky for us Saints were that team week before the final.

As to the current system my biggest gripe is the finals bye disadvantages the QF winner and that shouldn't happen. You shouldn't be given a hindrance to your chances because you win the QF.
 
I'd be happy with sudden death if only looking at the finals. But think some small advantages are necessary to ensure the end of the H&A isn't a farce and the top teams have something to play for. In the last month, the Pies have played more than enough dead rubbers for my liking - we would have been playing them since R15 if there was zero advantage in finishing higher. So I think the current system is a happy middle ground.
Fair enough but I cant understand why there isnt more of a backlash for the finals bye when it clearly harms the chances of the QF winner. It was bought in for a nonsense reason and almost certainly has already changed flag results. It should go.
 

Prexm

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Melbourne v Collingwood at the g week 1 gives them a home final
Playing port gives us a true home final
Unfortunately we can’t avoid that situation some time in the finals. If it’s not week 1 it’s very likely Prelim.
 
Fair enough but I cant understand why there isnt more of a backlash for the finals bye when it clearly harms the chances of the QF winner. It was bought in for a nonsense reason and almost certainly has already changed flag results. It should go.
Yeah I wouldn't have the bye. What was the nonsense reason?

I think it's here to stay though, as I think when Tassie get in they'll move to the same thing that they're currently doing in the VFL.
 

Carringbush2010

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Our fast manic game is unsustainable for long periods, once finals start I’m sure the tempo will be back and dialled right up. Bring the intense pressure for 3 games is easily do able. Especially with a week off in between.
Absolutely agree, as much as our ideal game is almost impossible to defeat it is as equally taxing to execute
 

Carringbush2010

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We'll come out firing. That's a given for me

But I do think your whichever number 3 is up for debate. The question for me: is it just that we've been flat or have other teams improved against us by learning how to dissect our defence and if it's the latter, can we adjust it in time.
Even earlier in the season, the opposition knew how to dismantle our game, but weren't able to.

I'm confident if we bring our ideal game no one can defeat it.
 

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Carringbush2010

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2 and 3 clearly debatable.

2 We will beat Ess for a start playing the way we are and then the finals are on

3 Our ideal game is far from unbeatable. I can't really split the top 4 clearly this year and I think it would be a flip of the coin job for any match up between those 4 teams where they were playing their best brand. Brisbane put us to the sword when we were flying early in the year and Demons were convincingly better than us when we came up against them after 8 straight wins.

This year is all about being the team up and going in Sept and particularly GF day. Flag is a raffle at this point
I would argue that the dee's weren't demonstrably better, and to be honest we weren't exactly on in either of those two games.
 
Yeah I wouldn't have the bye. What was the nonsense reason?

I think it's here to stay though, as I think when Tassie get in they'll move to the same thing that they're currently doing in the VFL.
Wasn't the nonsense reason that Lyon rested half the Dockers' team in 2015 because they had their spot sewn up?
 
Wasn't the nonsense reason that Lyon rested half the Dockers' team in 2015 because they had their spot sewn up?
North as well. It basically became sanctioned match fixing in the last round, similar to what the Swans used to do in preseason games.
 

ipswichpies

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2 was shocking for us but we didnt finish equal top we finished 3rd. The final six wasnt a bad system, it provided a reasonable seeding system but if 3 teams finish equal points one has to be 3rd place. No system can undo that. As to the bye, it was 15 teams, someone had to have a bye each week, just unlucky for us Saints were that team week before the final.

As to the current system my biggest gripe is the finals bye disadvantages the QF winner and that shouldn't happen. You shouldn't be given a hindrance to your chances because you win the QF.
I think the finals changed after what happened in 92,I remember it like yesterday we had been on top nearly all that season and when the olympics rolled around we lost in successive wks to Fitzroy bottom and then Melbourne 2nd last and we had injuries coming into finals,It was bloody awful most the players were crying and we were gone no 2nd chance.
 
I think the finals changed after what happened in 92,I remember it like yesterday we had been on top nearly all that season and when the olympics rolled around we lost in successive wks to Fitzroy bottom and then Melbourne 2nd last and we had injuries coming into finals,It was bloody awful most the players were crying and we were gone no 2nd chance.
It was the season after Millane died too so there were high emotions.
 

IlovethePies

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We are best off if we play to win on Friday night, irrespective of ladder positions. We need to reenergise that fire of desire to win, that seems to have flickered and dimmed of late. I would be appalled if we were focussed on anything other than winning this game decisively.
We have an opportunity to restoke the engine in this game, and and we need to take it. Carpe diem pies.
 

cfc19902010

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Yes but would you rather that home final in the QF or the prelim, because you likely can’t have both?

Play Port in the QF and win, and you probably have to play Melbourne in the prelim after they lose to Brisbane at the Gabba in a QF and then win a semi.
definitely home final in qualifying where with injuries and availability will need as much going for us as as we can get..
No matter which way you cut it we most likely have to beat Dees, Port and Lions this finals series to win the big dance. Does it matter which game that's in?
understand that but believe more likely to beat port week 1 without nick than beating Melbourne without nick
With nick available week 2 hugely increases chances against anyone
 

SuperSub17

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As to the current system my biggest gripe is the finals bye disadvantages the QF winner and that shouldn't happen. You shouldn't be given a hindrance to your chances because you win the QF.
I take your point about the PFs being less of a sure thing now, but it’s not really accurate to say you’re disadvantaged by winning. The loser still has to survive a sudden death SF to make it, which they often don’t.

Or, put it this way-
There have been 12 QF winners:
4/12 (33%) have won the flag
2/12 (17%) have lost the GF
6/12 (50%) have lost the PF

12 QF losers:
1/12 (8%) have won the flag
3/12 (25%) have lost the GF
4/12 (33%) have lost the PF
4/12 (33%) have lost the SF

So you’re still more likely to do well if you win, but of course we need more data.
 
I take your point about the PFs being less of a sure thing now, but it’s not really accurate to say you’re disadvantaged by winning. The loser still has to survive a sudden death SF to make it, which they often don’t.

Or, put it this way-
There have been 12 QF winners:
4/12 (33%) have won the flag
2/12 (17%) have lost the GF
6/12 (50%) have lost the PF

12 QF losers:
1/12 (8%) have won the flag
3/12 (25%) have lost the GF
4/12 (33%) have lost the PF
4/12 (33%) have lost the SF

So you’re still more likely to do well if you win, but of course we need more data.
That 1/12 QF loser was Brisbane in 03 😢
 

3rdMan

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I'm on the side of 1st is better. If the option is play Melbourne in the QF or the Prelim I'll take the QF. I think Pies and Dees at their best are the two most likely Premiers. Playing Melbourne when we have a double chance is better than a sudden death Prelim.

There would even be some advantages of us losing the first final. Extra game to build form, Nick gets another game and lack of rest less of a problem now that we have the bye. Obviously the disadvantage of a likely away Prelim negates that, but the positives are there.
 

live fast pieyoung

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Fair enough but I cant understand why there isnt more of a backlash for the finals bye when it clearly harms the chances of the QF winner. It was bought in for a nonsense reason and almost certainly has already changed flag results. It should go.
I dont understand why they dont just move the pre-finals bye to a week or two earlier.
that way if you win a QF, you at least played a few games in the final rounds leading up to that break, but can still rest players for finals
 
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