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Monkey King said:
Best performing to the benefit of many. State and federal government through billions of dollars in tax and royalties, to investors and super funds, taxpayers, and ~30,000 employees. The GPD not taking a 5-10% hit means the country has a better chance at presenting a recovering economy, preserving our credit rating and keeping a demand for treasuries. No bones about it, ceasing Iron Ore exports would have a massive impact on Australians.

As for being worth more in the future, I'd like to know how you arrive at that reasoning? It's only China's unprecedented demand for the commodity that's taken it to elevated prices the last 15 years. The previous 15 years IO struggled to break $30p/t which meant only the highest quality ore was economically viable to mine. Eventually, as new projects from Africa will add more tonnage to the market, China stabilises and infrastructure projects are realised, demand will fall taking prices with it. By that stage, millions of tonnes of ore will sit in the ground, like FMG's entire resource, not being worth the cost of mining it.

That doesn't mean I don't think we should scuttle the ship, because it's the only thing we have that will really put China's nose out of joint short term. Just that we'd need to be aware of what doing that means for the present and future of the country, as it's not likely something we could come back from.
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I've arrived at the future value reasoning on the basis that its a finite resource. Its reasonable to expect 2 things - it will be more valuable in the future as its limited, but also it should become cheaper to extract in the future as technology continues to evolve. I'd suggest it's irrational to think China will be the last country to boom in demand for steel. India will do so at some stage, and then Africa will follow. Its population driven more than anything else.

I'm not saying to retract completely, I'd propose to tax it further - two pronged benefit here, additional cash to the bottom line for Australians and investing that money on renewables to future proof our economy.
 
slashin_velvet said:
I've arrived at the future value reasoning on the basis that its a finite resource. Its reasonable to expect 2 things - it will be more valuable in the future as its limited, but also it should become cheaper to extract in the future as technology continues to evolve. I'd suggest it's irrational to think China will be the last country to boom in demand for steel. India will do so at some stage, and then Africa will follow. Its population driven more than anything else.

I'm not saying to retract completely, I'd propose to tax it further - two pronged benefit here, additional cash to the bottom line for Australians and investing that money on renewables to future proof our economy.
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China's demand wasn't just population driven; it was policy driven backed by an unprecedented economic rise that has never been seen before and unlikely to be seen again. India and Africa are just a whole other kettle of fish. Massive changes would need to happen in those place to match what occured in China. Meanwhile, India has about 12 billion tonnes of domestic IO supply and Africa has a motherload, so it's not a great argument. More global supply will be coming online through projects in Africa over the next decade, so unless you're talking 50-100 years down the track, there's going to be no foreseeable supply squeeze once they come online, even if Australia pulled their supply from the market. The impact would be 5-10 years in duration and likely Brazil and Canada would benefit most.

You talk about technology driving down C1 costs, but that's just an unknown assumption. It's equally viable over the time frames you're talking about that technological advancement in graphene composites and biomimetic materials could see steel demand reduced or become redundent in infrastructure and manafacturing, so that's not a compelling argument.

Sorry, but I don't find your reasoning compelling.
 
Buzzasto DaSilva said:
Why?

China couldn't give a hoot about Australia. They're far more concerned with the Pacific, Southern Asia and East Africa.

Life will go on my friend.
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A bit of 2020 hindsight here but China does give a hoot about Australia. Thats why they are trying to buy as many businesses and as much land as they can. They are trying to silence us as a free nation and bully us economically.

The current goverment are meglomaniacs and in no way friends of Australia.

We need to have a 10 to 20 year plan to back away from China economically. We have bent over backwards to engage in trade and now we are being bullied by the biggest kid in the playground. F#@# China. We are 25 million people with one of the best standards of living in the world. We have other nations who are allies and decent, we need to focus all our efforts there and simply back away from China as they simply fail the dick head test in so many ways.
 

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Obeanie1 said:
A bit of 2020 hindsight here but China does give a hoot about Australia. Thats why they are trying to buy as many businesses and as much land as they can. They are trying to silence us as a free nation and bully us economically.

The current goverment are meglomaniacs and in no way friends of Australia.

We need to have a 10 to 20 year plan to back away from China economically. We have bent over backwards to engage in trade and now we are being bullied by the biggest kid in the playground. F#@# China. We are 25 million people with one of the best standards of living in the world. We have other nations who are allies and decent, we need to focus all our efforts there and simply back away from China as they simply fail the dick head test in so many ways.
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I agree with you in principle. The issue is, China pay far more for most goods than the majority of Australian distributors. Speaking from experience, we wouldn't be able to maintain our land without selling to China. We have become very reliant upon Chinese distributors and buyers, but we've had to be, otherwise we would have sold up 10 years ago.
 
Obeanie1 said:
Red Dawn? ;)

We should do a remake but in Australia v China.

Film up here in the NT, no covid, big weapons ranges to use and lots of space.
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a much better film, simply because it didnt take itself as seriously as the aussie version
 

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Skull Face said:
We have sold our souls to the devil and now we want it back and it's too late, just be thankful we are the lucky ones who got to enjoy this period of freedom because the next generation likely won't.

The only way out of this mess is if big companies like Apple, Intel, Google, etc shift their manufacturing to other 3rd world countries but they only care about padding their wallets so they wont do it.
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The problem with this is third world countries don't have the expertise of Chinese factories, which have developed along with all those products. And for those who can relocate lower end manufacturing, it likely ends up being that factory is Chinese owned anyway, as they've gone on to seek lower cost inputs in less developed countries too.
 
Skull Face said:
China started with no expertise, those companies taught them to lower their costs. They can do the same elsewhere.
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There's a lot more to it than just lowering costs. China developed their expertise as the products themselves developed and they have tooled their production lines and processes with their own innovation. Now they lead the field. Even the US doesn't have the manufacturing capacity to match them. Meanwhile, they executed a national strategy of securing materials supply in a way smaller countries wouldn't be able to replicate. The whole process walked hand in hand over two decades in one of the most unique growth stories the world has ever seen.

I think it's extremely naive to think you could step into another developing country and rinse repeat, and even if you could, it would take decades.

Further to this, as I've said, China is already outsourcing to these countries, building their own factories for lower end manufacturing. While Chinese companies service some big global companies, they also produce a whole heap of their own stuff that sells like hotcakes on Amazon and brings in billions. So you'd have fierce competition for most goods and need significant capital investment to get new factories off the ground in developing countries, plenty of hiccups with capacity building and likely resistance with China having their tentacles in these countries already well ahead of the game.

The west has been outplayed at their own game IMO and simply saying "let's shift to a new country" lacks the nous required to wrest control back in our favour.
 
Skull Face said:
Unless I am mistaken AMD, Intel, Apple, Google, Microsoft are all American companies, they don't have to wrestle control of anything they own and control it.

If Google stopped supplying Huawei their operating system alone that would cripple their entire platform in the western world, they are a 3rd world country that prints out templates at a cheaper cost to western manufacturing, they don't design anything.
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The base Google OS is open source, they can't stop anyone using it.

The secret sauce that Google supply extra hasn't been provided to Huawei for years. That's why if you have a Huawei phone from the mate 10 onwards you needed to download the gsm from APK or the like.

Since last year even that's no longer an option (which also means all Google apps cannot work on a Huawei)

Fwiw as someone with a Huawei it makes no difference. Most the apps I want are now in the Huawei store. Those that aren't (exc Google) I can get via APK

For the Google, I just switched to alternatives from Microsoft and so on. The only one I couldn't really was YouTube, but I can still use a browser to watch (so no issue)
 
Skull Face said:
We have sold our souls to the devil and now we want it back and it's too late, just be thankful we are the lucky ones who got to enjoy this period of freedom because the next generation likely won't.

The only way out of this mess is if big companies like Apple, Intel, Google, etc shift their manufacturing to other 3rd world countries but they only care about padding their wallets so they wont do it.
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Amercian foreign policy is the Devil and our country is ruled by it. 99% of Australians don’t know this because they are ignorant of world geopolitics, thanks largely to the Australian media and our gutless politicians. Real question is, is it better than the Devil you know? Well, in my opinion it’s hard to tell, Amercia has proven itself to be unjust and wicked time and time again, though China’s track record isn’t to flash either. But what Australians need to understand is, ever since Obama instituted the ‘contain China’ policy, the Australian media has been awash with anti Chinese sentiment. The pen is truly mightier than the sword, because most Australians think China is the greatest evil since Hitler. The people who are trying to convince the Australian public that they are indeed ’evil’, couldn’t give a rats arse about you and me, they are just desperately trying to cling on to their geopolitical power in the region. Australia is in a real pickle, and it’s probably gonna get nasty, but resist those who just want manipulate you to suit their own agenda, whether it’s Devil you know or the one you don’t.
 
smasha said:
I reckon it will be 3 years before this thing pisses off from the World,could be longer.
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They'll just knock us off economically one by one
 
Skull Face said:
Unless I am mistaken AMD, Intel, Apple, Google, Microsoft are all American companies, they don't have to wrestle control of anything they own and control it.

If Google stopped supplying Huawei their operating system alone that would cripple their entire platform in the western world, they are a 3rd world country that prints out templates at a cheaper cost to western manufacturing, they don't design anything.
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Lol you have no idea
 
Chinese communist ideology vs American free market economy thinking.
Now both very grey areas with blurry lines..
It's going to be an interesting & sometimes painful decade.

Just don't confuse Chinese people with the communist party.
Most Chinese people would love to talk publicly about being unable to vote but fear for their families lives..
Others have been brainwashed from day 1.
Nothing lasts forever not even nations.
As the communist party expands it's borders & powers it becomes weaker internally, just ask the Soviet republic or the Roman empire.
All hail freedom of speech & human beings.
Viva la peace
 
Skull Face said:
Unless I am mistaken AMD, Intel, Apple, Google, Microsoft are all American companies, they don't have to wrestle control of anything they own and control it.

If Google stopped supplying Huawei their operating system alone that would cripple their entire platform in the western world, they are a 3rd world country that prints out templates at a cheaper cost to western manufacturing, they don't design anything.
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Not sure if you're missing the points I make on purpose, or it flies over your head, but I can't be bothered replying to your naive s**t any longer. China isn't a third world country and it's obvious you don't know anything about their manufacturing capacity, which is probably why you think simply moving manufacturing to another country is a clever solution.
 
Skull Face said:
Not only do you think your own sh*t doesn't stink you have the audacity to baselessly call me a racist.

With dickheads like you in the world who needs to worry about china, really showing the lack of class you have here mate nothing more or less.
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I don't need to argue with you to prove myself, I only need to quote you:

"they are a 3rd world country that prints out templates at a cheaper cost to western manufacturing, they don't design anything.”
 
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