Analysis Assessing the Midfield

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Dylan82

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Seeing that we are now at the halfway point of the season, it seems timely for an update.


Starting with the outcome of the trade period:
2018-Mids-TradePeriod.jpg

Little change for West Coast with Hickey brought in for the loss of Lycett. Brisbane the biggest offseason beneficiary despite the loss of Beams with the additions of Neale and Lyons.


So after the completion of Round 12 the top 50 under this rating are as follows:
WCE-Mids-R12-Top50.jpg

Top 50 players (minimum 5 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.

This is currently the first season since 2007 that the club has three players within the top 20 for this ranking.


However there is a chasm between the top four and the rest of the squad - the depth has gone missing so far this season:

WCE-Mids-R12.jpg

Note the significant drops from Redden and Hutchings in particular, impacting midfield depth.


This means we have a situation where the club is actually first in the competition this season according to best four midfielders:
WCE-Mids-R12-Rank4.jpg

Only Port Adelaide and Fremantle (due to the respective revitalisations of Boak and Mundy) have outperformed the club for expectations in this area.


Yet it plummets down to 10th when you do the same calculation across the best six:
WCE-Mids-R12-Rank6.jpg

West Coast ranks 17th in the competition this season (above only Fremantle) for quality beyond the fourth midfielder.


Safe to say the measure of success for the club over the second half of the season will depend heavily upon the output of the depth midfielders who have underperformed thus far in 2019.
 

new breed

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If we get Kelly we will miss out on Robertson this draft but could draft a midfielder with other picks depending ....hopefully we would still have a second round pick to use .
 

Max zero

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Seeing that we are now at the halfway point of the season, it seems timely for an update.


Starting with the outcome of the trade period:
View attachment 693242
Little change for West Coast with Hickey brought in for the loss of Lycett. Brisbane the biggest offseason beneficiary despite the loss of Beams with the additions of Neale and Lyons.


So after the completion of Round 12 the top 50 under this rating are as follows:
View attachment 693245
Top 50 players (minimum 5 games played). Refer to the OP for details on calculation method.

This is currently the first season since 2007 that the club has three players within the top 20 for this ranking.


However there is a chasm between the top four and the rest of the squad - the depth has gone missing so far this season:

View attachment 693262
Note the significant drops from Redden and Hutchings in particular, impacting midfield depth.


This means we have a situation where the club is actually first in the competition this season according to best four midfielders:
View attachment 693252
Only Port Adelaide and Fremantle (due to the respective revitalisations of Boak and Mundy) have outperformed the club for expectations in this area.


Yet it plummets down to 10th when you do the same calculation across the best six:
View attachment 693253
West Coast ranks 17th in the competition this season (above only Fremantle) for quality beyond the fourth midfielder.


Safe to say the measure of success for the club over the second half of the season will depend heavily upon the output of the depth midfielders who have underperformed thus far in 2019.
Our best 22 is absolutely fantastic. We just have no depth.

Assuming everyone is fit our first cab off the rank in case of midfield injury is Masten, Ah Chee or Josh Smith. That is a massive drop from Shuey and Yeo.

I think we persevere with 2nds players way longer then we should. The fact that a first 1st year player, Petruccelle, has passed half a dozen older players to find a regular spot in our starting 22 says it all.
 
Last edited:

eagles_4_life

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Our best 22 is absolutely fantastic. We just have no depth.

Assuming everyone is fit our first cab off the rank in case of midfield injury is Masten, Ah Chee or Josh Smith. That is a massive drop from Shuey and Yeo.

I think we persevere with 2nds players way longer then we should. The fact that a first 1st year player, Petruccelle, has passed half a dozen older players to find a regular spot in our starting 22 says it all.
Second year player
 

Astro7

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Gaff is way down compared to our other midfielders, yet hailed around the country as an elite mid. He also expressed a desire to lift his game in certain areas and keep improving himself. He's not as damaging as Yeo, Shuey and Sheed, certainly not on the scoreboard-an area he wanted to improve in. While his tackling has improved, he's just not as damaging or impactful, little physical presence. Strikes me as a shy introverted type and plays that way in a sense.
Redden rose to being a fairly consistent solid in/under type, but remains blue collar without the polish.
Hutch is hutch, a solid tagger not much upside, serviceable.
Yes, we need quality depth. Needed it at last trade. Who are our gun mids coming through?
We need a walk-in gun and a couple more at different stages of development, who can play as required over next few seasons?
 
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Godfather32

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Gaff is way down next to our other midfielders, yet hailed around the country as an elite mid. He also expressed a desire to lift his game in certain areas and keep improving himself. He's not as damaging as Yeo, Shuey and Sheed, certainly not on the scoreboard-an area he wanted to improve in. While his tackling has improved, he's just not as damaging or impactful. Strikes me as a shy introverted type and plays that way in a sense.
Redden rose to being a fairly consistent solid in/under type, but remains blue collar without the polish.
Hutch is hutch, a tagger not much upside, serviceable.
Yes, we need quality depth. Needed it at last trade. Who are our gun mids coming through?
We need a walk-in gun and a couple more at different stages of development, who can play as required over next few seasons?
We have absolutely none, I wouldn't be surprised if none of our current Beagles ever make it as AFL midfielders, in fact I would be surprised if any of them actually did. But this will be the third or fourth draft in a row (possibly even longer) that people have been arguing for drafting some genuine midfielders and we end up taking some 4th round over agers who can't kick instead. Not holding out hope that we'll draft any this year.
 

Fletcher25

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We have absolutely none, I wouldn't be surprised if none of our current Beagles ever make it as AFL midfielders, in fact I would be surprised if any of them actually did. But this will be the third or fourth draft in a row (possibly even longer) that people have been arguing for drafting some genuine midfielders and we end up taking some 4th round over agers who can't kick instead. Not holding out hope that we'll draft any this year.
I think Brayshaw is probably the only likely chance at this stage. Matt Allen possibly, but I'm losing confidence. I think consistency is what's lacking. Masten goes to Beagles and get's 30+ consecutively. It shows the disparity in quality- two words I never thought I'd say about Masten.
 

Godfather32

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I think Brayshaw is probably the only likely chance at this stage. Matt Allen possibly, but I'm losing confidence. I think consistency is what's lacking. Masten goes to Beagles and get's 30+ consecutively. It shows the disparity in quality- two words I never thought I'd say about Masten.
I think Allen's papers have been stamped, I don't think we see him in our future otherwise we would have given him at least one game this year. Brayshaw is a long shot imo, and unlikely to be much more than depth at his peak.
Hopefully Foley or O'Neill work out but we'll probably play them on the hbf.
 

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Monocle

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I think Allen's papers have been stamped, I don't think we see him in our future otherwise we would have given him at least one game this year. Brayshaw is a long shot imo, and unlikely to be much more than depth at his peak.
Hopefully Foley or O'Neill work out but we'll probably play them on the hbf.
Godfather32 I see some good traits with O’Neil he just needs to develope and learn to get more of it.
Otherwise I agree with your assessment on the whole.
I have serious concerns about Ainsworth making it if he can’t fix that horrendous ball drop, maybe dept until others overtake him.
Foley may develope as a decent HBF.
Brayshaw is running out of time to get some injury free time to stake his claim.
I , like others , am disappointed that Mallen hasn’t got a jig, and agree his papers appear stamped.

The very fact that the recruiting team of late has not drafted us a Mid that looks of some promise, leads me to not be at all that phased if we trade a couple of first rounders to get a quality Mid into the team.
The draft currency that we spent trading Yeo & Redden in looks well spent.

Just need to land some decent mids either by trading or through the draft and history shows , that this recruiting team, has a much better hit rate trading in mids, than drafting them.
 
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Coasters7

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Godfather32 I see some good traits with O’Neil he just needs to develope and learn to get more of it.
Otherwise I agree with your assessment on the whole.
I have serious concerns about Ainsworth making it if he can’t fix that horrendous ball drop, maybe dept until others overtake him.
Foley may develope as a decent HBF.
Brayshaw is running out of time to get some injury free time to stake his claim.
I , like others , am disappointed that Mallen hasn’t got a jig, and agree his papers appear stamped.
The very fact that the recruiting team of late has not drafted us a Mid that looks of some promise, leads me to not be at all phases if we trade a couple of first rounders to get a quality Mid into the team.
The draft currency that we spent trading Yeo & Redden in looks well spent.

Just need to land some decent mids either by trading or through the draft and history shows that this team has a much better hit rate trading in mids than drafting them.
I know where a couple of decent ones are
 

Godfather32

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Godfather32 I see some good traits with O’Neil he just needs to develope and learn to get more of it.
Otherwise I agree with your assessment on the whole.
I have serious concerns about Ainsworth making it if he can’t fix that horrendous ball drop, maybe dept until others overtake him.
Foley may develope as a decent HBF.
Brayshaw is running out of time to get some injury free time to stake his claim.
I , like others , am disappointed that Mallen hasn’t got a jig, and agree his papers appear stamped.
The very fact that the recruiting team of late has not drafted us a Mid that looks of some promise, leads me to not be at all phases if we trade a couple of first rounders to get a quality Mid into the team.
The draft currency that we spent trading Yeo & Redden in looks well spent.

Just need to land some decent mids either by trading or through the draft and history shows that this team has a much better hit rate trading in mids than drafting them.
It's so odd that we don't seem to be able to identify decent midfielders in the draft, lately we seem to have an aversion to drafting anyone that kind find the ball for themselves.
We lucked out with Yeo and then Redden kind of fell into our lap, but we also traded in Wellingham and then played him in the midfield twice. Unfortunately I don't think whoever we target next is going to go for a pick in the late teens. Seems like an inefficient way to build a list.
 

kranky al

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Only thing i can fault is that all i50’s are not the same

Id take 3 shuey i50’s for each sprangerfield i50


Its the biggest failure in stats afaic - the sh|ttest, least skilled, totally non advantageous whatever is rated up with the sublime.

Deliver i50 straight to the oppositions full back is rated the same as a gorgeous kick out in front of a leading forward that his defender has zero chance of getting a hand on.

Thats why players like danger and others get over rated.

If you had a multiplier so each act was rated out of 5 so:

a turd of a kick straight to the opposition gets a zero

an ordinary kick that advantages neither team gets a one

A fairly good kick that the forward can take advantage from gets a three

A good kick to clear advantage gets a four

A really difficult kick to a clear advantage gets a five


You would watch those rankings above change radically.
 

Dylan82

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Only thing i can fault is that all i50’s are not the same

Id take 3 shuey i50’s for each sprangerfield i50


Its the biggest failure in stats afaic - the sh|ttest, least skilled, totally non advantageous whatever is rated up with the sublime.

Deliver i50 straight to the oppositions full back is rated the same as a gorgeous kick out in front of a leading forward that his defender has zero chance of getting a hand on.

Thats why players like danger and others get over rated.

If you had a multiplier so each act was rated out of 5 so:

a turd of a kick straight to the opposition gets a zero

an ordinary kick that advantages neither team gets a one

A fairly good kick that the forward can take advantage from gets a three

A good kick to clear advantage gets a four

A really difficult kick to a clear advantage gets a five


You would watch those rankings above change radically.
Reasons such as this, taking into account a far wider array of statistical input, led to the development of the ratings system that is in use here.

In this thread the example you describe (Shuey vs Dangerfield) appears as such:
shuey-danger1.jpg


Whereas in the expanded system, they are as follows:
shuey-danger2.jpg


Which affirms your argument that Shuey is the superior of the two when provided with ample time and space to assess and execute disposals.



The method used in this thread however remains useful as its simplicity allows for an uninterrupted data set going back to 2005.
 

kerr87

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Very bizarre. Without peer in picking talls but pretty much bottom of the barrel in drafting mids.

Don't change the recruiters. Nab another one from the eastern states and put them on the payroll.

Screw the soft cap.
And just trade in mids rather than draft.

Adding Kelly will be great. If we can do it without giving up 2 firsts and a second it will be a win.
 

kerr87

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Yeo is in career best form IMO. As is Dom Sheed.

Plenty of room for improvement with Gaff, Shuey and Redden.

Did I mention Naitanui is coming back this week?

Exciting times ahead... the AFL's best forward line is licking it's lips...
 

avishka5

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Dom Sheed's season is severely underrated. He's getting lost behind stars like Boots and Yeo, while Gaff's now reached that level where the east coast media rank him on possession. Gaffs first couple months was bog average. Lot better now but not as impact full as sheed.
 

Turboman1994

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Only really like Exon and Venables as our younger lot to potentially be top line midfielders.

And it’s not a development issue Gaff, Yeo, Sheed and shuey to an extent have developed nicely in the last 3 years
 

Coasters7

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Need to get creative with future trading and try to jag an Adelaide Carlton type deal. If we could get into that top 10 a couple of times while challenging for flags, our depth would look a lot better. Good mids still available in the later rounds but we can’t seem to find them so just go right to the top where you can’t really mess it up. Need to try and eye off the Sydney or Melbourne of 2020.
 

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