Association Football Betting Thread

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Thought I'd fire up a new thread based on discussion of promotion possibilities in the championship thread. Toying with this multi.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 1, 2010
26,804
13,193
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Thought I'd fire up a new thread based on discussion of promotion possibilities in the championship thread. Toying with this multi.
Why Mansfield?
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 1, 2010
26,804
13,193
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Thinking this one
image.png
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 1, 2010
26,804
13,193
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Really doubt Swansea go down. Brighton probably best value.
What's Swansea done that had you confident in them? They lose one or both of Llorente (who might not hit those heights again) or Gylfi and they're done
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
What's Swansea done that had you confident in them? They lose one or both of Llorente (who might not hit those heights again) or Gylfi and they're done
The fact they have a competent manager now and will bring in some new players to help stabilise. There are easily 3 worse teams. And punting on them to get relegated isn't a sure enough thing I don't think.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Consider me subscribed. Will have some kind of futures multi in later this month.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
I went with the multi in the OP but included Brighton getting relegated and just Blackburn to get promoted not league winners, odds remained the same.
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 1, 2010
26,804
13,193
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
I like the wolves to get promoted bet. Might use a free bet I've got on that
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Not football but I'm currently throwing up with the idea of just cashing this one out:

upload_2017-7-9_10-44-31.png


Think Canterbury should kill us (Newcastle haven't won away since 2014) but I don't know it's worth risking doubling my money.

I'm such a chicken haha.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Not football but I'm currently throwing up with the idea of just cashing this one out:

View attachment 390459

Think Canterbury should kill us (Newcastle haven't won away since 2014) but I don't know it's worth risking doubling my money.

I'm such a chicken haha.
You'll be fine, hold it. Hedge if you're really worried.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
You'll be fine, hold it. Hedge if you're really worried.
Yeah think you're right. Probably won't even hedge it. May just cash out if it looks like going the wrong way.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
I had this discussion on the SFA board, but I don't understand what possesses people to put legs paying < $1.20 in a multi. It's just such a waste of money.
Why would it be a waste of money? Every bit bumps it up.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
To add to that, without the legs under $1.20, the odds are $3.54, rather than $5.22.

That's $170 worth of potential profit.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Why would it be a waste of money? Every bit bumps it up.
Because the chances of it ******* up makes the little bump in odds incredibly useless.

A bloke on the SFA board did a $50 multi for the weekend and had Dogs + 35.5 in it which was giving him $1.30 or something and it f’ed.

He then chucked another one that had Suns +69.5 which got up, but if Rohan kicked straight on the siren that would have f’ed as well.

I just don't see the point. Smart betting with a bit of research can give much better returns for relatively similar levels of risk.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
To add to that, without the legs under $1.20, the odds are $3.54, rather than $5.22.

That's $170 worth of potential profit.
Key word "Potential". If it gets up I'm happy for you, I just think it's a waste.

Agencies love people lumping on those sorts of multis because of your mentality of "It adds value and look how short it is - it's gotta come off!"

Especially with this season and the amount of upsets in AFL I just don't see it as being worth it.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
Key word "Potential". If it gets up I'm happy for you, I just think it's a waste.

Agencies love people lumping on those sorts of multis because of your mentality of "It adds value and look how short it is - it's gotta come off!"

Especially with this season and the amount of upsets in AFL I just don't see it as being worth it.
Of course the key word is potential. Even without the bets of $1.20 or lower, the bet is still potential.

What part of it is a waste?

I honestly could not disagree any more on this haha. Adding extra value (which I've just shown bumps my bet up significantly) at a lower risk is somehow a bad thing? It's worth the minimised risk to me if it's adding a lot more value.

Btw, the Panthers reserves at -12.5 is a great bet. Just for whoever is interested.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Of course the key word is potential. Even without the bets of $1.20 or lower, the bet is still potential.

What part of it is a waste?

I honestly could not disagree any more on this haha. Adding extra value (which I've just shown bumps my bet up significantly) at a lower risk is somehow a bad thing? It's worth the minimised risk to me if it's adding a lot more value.

Btw, the Panthers reserves at -12.5 is a great bet. Just for whoever is interested.
So why not just make your own line and bet on all 9 AFL and 8 NRL games with 1.10 odds? If it's essentially a sure thing that would give you plenty of value?

Chasing small priced favourites is not smart punting, you've shown that yourself with the Panthers tip.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
So why not just make your own line and bet on all 9 AFL and 8 NRL games with 1.10 odds? If it's essentially a sure thing that would give you plenty of value?

Chasing small priced favourites is not smart punting, you've shown that yourself with the Panthers tip.
Haha oh mate. There's nothing wrong with small priced favourites. The Swans gave me extra value last week that helped triple my money. You'd have me miss the extra value in a game where the result was always safe. Thanks but pass.

Let's just agree to disagree. "Not smart punting" is just way too strong.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Haha oh mate. There's nothing wrong with small priced favourites. The Swans gave me extra value last week that helped triple my money. You'd have me miss the extra value in a game where the result was always safe. Thanks but pass.

Let's just agree to disagree. "Not smart punting" is just way too strong.
How'd the bombers go as a short priced favourite the previous week? They were $1.07.
 

Jatz

Moderator
Sep 7, 2008
44,401
27,346
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Philadelphia Eagles
How'd the bombers go as a short priced favourite the previous week? They were $1.07.
Did I have the Bombers in my multi?

I've never said that anything under $1.20 is a sure thing. You're on a weird tangent.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
85,721
46,575
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Did I have the Bombers in my multi?

I've never said that anything under $1.20 is a sure thing. You're on a weird tangent.
I didn't say you did, where did I say that?

You're making an argument out of nothing. I'm not on a weird tangent, I'm pointing out that short price doesn't = guaranteed money. Really not sure where you're getting "weird tangent" from.

In future I'll only discuss betting theory and comment on people's multis in the punting thread.

Oh, hang on.
 
Top Bottom