Association Football Betting Thread

[SM]

Thought I'd fire up a new thread based on discussion of promotion possibilities in the championship thread. Toying with this multi.

 

[jd2010]

Thought I'd fire up a new thread based on discussion of promotion possibilities in the championship thread. Toying with this multi.

Why Mansfield?

 

[jd2010]

Thinking this one

 

[SM]

Why Mansfield?

Highly ambitious, have Evans as manager, already made ten signings.

 

[SM]

Thinking this one
View attachment 387311

Really doubt Swansea go down. Brighton probably best value.

 

[jd2010]

Really doubt Swansea go down. Brighton probably best value.

What's Swansea done that had you confident in them? They lose one or both of Llorente (who might not hit those heights again) or Gylfi and they're done

 

[SM]

What's Swansea done that had you confident in them? They lose one or both of Llorente (who might not hit those heights again) or Gylfi and they're done

The fact they have a competent manager now and will bring in some new players to help stabilise. There are easily 3 worse teams. And punting on them to get relegated isn't a sure enough thing I don't think.

 

[Jatz]

Consider me subscribed. Will have some kind of futures multi in later this month.

 

[SM]

I went with the multi in the OP but included Brighton getting relegated and just Blackburn to get promoted not league winners, odds remained the same.

 

[jd2010]

I like the wolves to get promoted bet. Might use a free bet I've got on that

 

[Jatz]

Not football but I'm currently throwing up with the idea of just cashing this one out:



Think Canterbury should kill us (Newcastle haven't won away since 2014) but I don't know it's worth risking doubling my money.

I'm such a chicken haha.

 

[SM]

Not football but I'm currently throwing up with the idea of just cashing this one out:

View attachment 390459

Think Canterbury should kill us (Newcastle haven't won away since 2014) but I don't know it's worth risking doubling my money.

I'm such a chicken haha.

You'll be fine, hold it. Hedge if you're really worried.

 

[Jatz]

You'll be fine, hold it. Hedge if you're really worried.

Yeah think you're right. Probably won't even hedge it. May just cash out if it looks like going the wrong way.

 

[Jatz]

This weekends multi.

 

[SM]

This weekends multi.

View attachment 392332

I had this discussion on the SFA board, but I don't understand what possesses people to put legs paying < $1.20 in a multi. It's just such a waste of money.

 

[Jatz]

I had this discussion on the SFA board, but I don't understand what possesses people to put legs paying < $1.20 in a multi. It's just such a waste of money.

Why would it be a waste of money? Every bit bumps it up.

 

[Jatz]

To add to that, without the legs under $1.20, the odds are $3.54, rather than $5.22.

That's $170 worth of potential profit.

 

[SM]

Why would it be a waste of money? Every bit bumps it up.

Because the chances of it ******* up makes the little bump in odds incredibly useless.

A bloke on the SFA board did a $50 multi for the weekend and had Dogs + 35.5 in it which was giving him $1.30 or something and it ****ed.

He then chucked another one that had Suns +69.5 which got up, but if Rohan kicked straight on the siren that would have ****ed as well.

I just don't see the point. Smart betting with a bit of research can give much better returns for relatively similar levels of risk.

 

[SM]

To add to that, without the legs under $1.20, the odds are $3.54, rather than $5.22.

That's $170 worth of potential profit.

Key word "Potential". If it gets up I'm happy for you, I just think it's a waste.

Agencies love people lumping on those sorts of multis because of your mentality of "It adds value and look how short it is - it's gotta come off!"

Especially with this season and the amount of upsets in AFL I just don't see it as being worth it.

 

[Jatz]

Key word "Potential". If it gets up I'm happy for you, I just think it's a waste.

Agencies love people lumping on those sorts of multis because of your mentality of "It adds value and look how short it is - it's gotta come off!"

Especially with this season and the amount of upsets in AFL I just don't see it as being worth it.

Of course the key word is potential. Even without the bets of $1.20 or lower, the bet is still potential.

What part of it is a waste?

I honestly could not disagree any more on this haha. Adding extra value (which I've just shown bumps my bet up significantly) at a lower risk is somehow a bad thing? It's worth the minimised risk to me if it's adding a lot more value.

Btw, the Panthers reserves at -12.5 is a great bet. Just for whoever is interested.

 

[SM]

Of course the key word is potential. Even without the bets of $1.20 or lower, the bet is still potential.

What part of it is a waste?

I honestly could not disagree any more on this haha. Adding extra value (which I've just shown bumps my bet up significantly) at a lower risk is somehow a bad thing? It's worth the minimised risk to me if it's adding a lot more value.

Btw, the Panthers reserves at -12.5 is a great bet. Just for whoever is interested.

So why not just make your own line and bet on all 9 AFL and 8 NRL games with 1.10 odds? If it's essentially a sure thing that would give you plenty of value?

Chasing small priced favourites is not smart punting, you've shown that yourself with the Panthers tip.

 

[Jatz]

So why not just make your own line and bet on all 9 AFL and 8 NRL games with 1.10 odds? If it's essentially a sure thing that would give you plenty of value?

Chasing small priced favourites is not smart punting, you've shown that yourself with the Panthers tip.

Haha oh mate. There's nothing wrong with small priced favourites. The Swans gave me extra value last week that helped triple my money. You'd have me miss the extra value in a game where the result was always safe. Thanks but pass.

Let's just agree to disagree. "Not smart punting" is just way too strong.

 

[SM]

Haha oh mate. There's nothing wrong with small priced favourites. The Swans gave me extra value last week that helped triple my money. You'd have me miss the extra value in a game where the result was always safe. Thanks but pass.

Let's just agree to disagree. "Not smart punting" is just way too strong.

How'd the bombers go as a short priced favourite the previous week? They were $1.07.

 

[Jatz]

How'd the bombers go as a short priced favourite the previous week? They were $1.07.

Did I have the Bombers in my multi?

I've never said that anything under $1.20 is a sure thing. You're on a weird tangent.

 

[SM]

Did I have the Bombers in my multi?

I've never said that anything under $1.20 is a sure thing. You're on a weird tangent.

I didn't say you did, where did I say that?

You're making an argument out of nothing. I'm not on a weird tangent, I'm pointing out that short price doesn't = guaranteed money. Really not sure where you're getting "weird tangent" from.

In future I'll only discuss betting theory and comment on people's multis in the punting thread.

Oh, hang on.