Analysis Attacking ability

[Calcium Man]

Warning this will be very long. As most of you know I do have a tendency to waffle

I've been considering writing this thread for a few weeks but thought i'd wait till the season was over.

For mine our back line has the basic structures and personnel in place to be one of the best in the league. Rance is the AA full back in my mind, can play tall or small gives it his all and is the best interceptor in the league. With a full line up moving Astbury onto the dominate forward and Rance to more of a Chaplin role will make us even stronger but even without Astbury we were still very good with Rance and Chaplin.

The way we play with a big forward press means that we need pace when the ball gets out, this is why we cannot trade Grimes, he can play small and tall and has the pace to race small forwards back to the open forward line. His marking is improving back to what he was before injury and as he gets games we just need his offensive ability to improve. Batch doesn't have as much pace but provides a really physical presence right now, he has the ability to intercept mark and good kick. He needs to improve a lot but he was very important shut down player in our 9 win run.

Houli provides the drive but has turned into a very good one on one defender, his form has been up and down this year a bit, he looks especially bad in our losses but underrated in our wins.

But for mine that is a very good and very young back 5 to work with. The last two spots need to be filled but Morris, Chaplin and Newman have them right now. But I'd like upgrades. Still this is a side that has proven over the last two years too be a top 4 defence IMO.

If anyone follows the squiggly line thread on the main board that basically backs up that we have been a very good defensive side last two season finishing with a top 4 rated defence.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2014.html#close

Its our attack that for mine is the problem (which is also reflected in the above chart). We do not punish teams enough on the scoreboard and anyone watching the tigers play would agree we seem to struggle for so many of our goals only for opposition to score easy ones against us. I personally think it is reflected in the fact we can get 30+ point leads but opposition side can ground us back because we cannot continue to score heavily. Over the last 3 season we average about 5 more inside 50's a game then our opposition yet we do not score nearly enough.

I've done a very basic break down of the Hawks, Port, Sydney and us for how many goals minimum they can expect next year based on previous few years form.

Hawks
60+
Roughy
45+
Breust and Gunston
30+
Rioli
20+
Puopolo, Hale, Smith, Ceglar/McEvoy and Hodge
15+
Lewis
10+
Hill, Burgoyne, Simpkin, Suckling, Shoenmakers

345 goals minimum next year

Sydney
70+
Franklin
50+
Tippet
25+
Goodes, McGlynn, Jetta
20+
Ried and Parker
15+
Kennedy, Jack, Cunningham, McVeigh
10+
Hannerbery, Lloyd and Rohan

335 goals

Port
50+
Schulz
40+
Wingard
35+
Gray
25+
Neade, Westhoff and White
20+
Harlett and Monfries
15+
Boak, Wines, Polec
10+
Ebert

295 goals

Richmond
60+
Jack
30+
Vickery
25+
Deledio, Martin
20+
Edwards and Gordon
15+
Cotchin and Griffiths
10+
Ellis, Miles and Petterd

240 goals at a push (Miles is probably lucky to make the 10+ goals)

We need to find away to get more goals from our forward line and get easier goals if we want to compete with the top teams.

Deledio and Martin could very well push into that 30+ bracket and Vickery into 40+ if he has a good season but we still need to find more goals.

I'm very big advocate for Jeff Garlett as he has performed at this level with three 40 goals season and can lay lots of tackles. Using a three tall forward line of Ty, Griff and Jack and him at their feet as 4 permeant forwards gives us a very flexible and different forward line especially if you can have the 3 talls put on enough forward pressure. I really believe they can as i've seen it from all of them its just about doing it all the time instead of some of the time.

Garlett needs to be making like difficult for teams rebounding, Port did it too easy in the Elim Final but at our best opposition run into a brick wall know as Rance and hurried kicks usually find our players who then bomb it to the top of the square where we rarely have crumbers, Garlett could thrive like that.

Martin and Cotch can both go to the goal square with Vickery who is very good at providing blocks when we clear the forward line out. Also Griff can set up outside 50 when we are locked in forward 50 and Vickery can do the rucking. This gives us another big marking player in our wall outside 50 and Griff could kick goals from 60 out quite easily.

If we don't get Garlett then someone has to come in, I like Gordon but not sure either can play the role we need. Long term if he makes it i see him more as an offensive version of Ellis. Lloyd is a level above VFL but that doesn't mean its AFL level, he can kick goals sometimes when he plays but really lacks the pace to put on enough pressure (not just tackling) and can drift out of the game easily.

Crozier is somebody who has been mentioned as a player we are interested in and i think he could be great pick up. Has electric pace and very good overhead. But is more a medium forward then a small one, still could be very handy in our attack, not yet 21 and proven ability to kick multiple goals. But if we get him I see him as taking Griggs place then being in out forward line

The draft offers up some interesting players too, Ahern would be great out our first pick, beautiful vision and creativity inside 50 but would take a while to make the jump from 18's to AFL IMO. Lavarde is more a tall quick wingman, but maybe becomes that WHE type. Smith at our 2nd pick could come in and be a terrier straight away in the forward line but a bit off kicking 30+ goals a season.

We do have McDonough and Lennon waiting in the wings. Both very crafty forwards at 18's level. Lennon IMO will start at HB for us and become a gun quarter back type before following a Deledio progression of midfield and forward, cleanest hands at ground level i've ever seen at VFL and u18's level but has looked a fair bit off AFL level if we are being honest. McDonough has been moved forward at VFL level as I think the club realised we need more goals, great set shot, strong overhead and very clever. But we need him to drop a few kegs and find a little more pace. Plus we have to hope he isn't going home to Adelaide. I really hope we continue to push his midfield time as he is brilliant around stoppages and could a Robbie Gray type player.

How do you guys think we can improve our attack? Am I over rating our defence and midfield?

 

[Rumballs]

A short answer to a long OP.
I agree about our backs and forwards.
But we are 2 mids short of the elite.

 

[Tigerbob]

I think we need more midfield depth to allow Deledio and Martin to spend the majority of time forward. We need improvement from Griffiths and Vickery. We know we get goals from Jack.

If we can get that extra depth in the middle and push A graders to tye forward line in Deledio and Martin it should help.

I agree we need that small forward though. That electric pace. The X Factor.

Gartlett will cost a bit from what I hear. Carlton love to over rate their players.

Down back I think we are two starting men short. Newman and Morris need replacing. So a small defender who can negate but also use the pill. A Duryea from Hawthorn type. Also another half back who can use the ball well and provide dash. I think Lennon should be used as this type because he has traits that would make him valuable. He reads the game well, makes good decisions and uses the ball well. Nice height also. Rutten could mold his defensive side.

In short we need to improve on all lines. We need better mids, more dangerous forwards and a couple of pieces down back.

 

[Calcium Man]

A short answer to a long OP.
I agree about our backs and forwards.
But we are 2 mids short of the elite.

Yeah it got long on me. But was trying to put all my thoughts down.

Vlastuin is one elite mid IMO. Just needs a tank

A real ideal offseason for me would be trade our 1st rounder for Shiel or Mitchell. Get Garlett for a third round and maybe Arnot or something and a token pick or Taylor Hunt to be our Ryan Crowley, and Whiley for a rookie spot.

 

[Calcium Man]

I think we need more midfield depth to allow Deledio and Martin to spend the majority of time forward. We need improvement from Griffiths and Vickery. We know we get goals from Jack.

If we can get that extra depth in the middle and push A graders to tye forward line in Deledio and Martin it should help.

I agree we need that small forward though. That electric pace. The X Factor.

Gartlett will cost a bit from what I hear. Carlton love to over rate their players.

Down back I think we are two starting men short. Newman and Morris need replacing. So a small defender who can negate but also use the pill. A Duryea from Hawthorn type. Also another half back who can use the ball well and provide dash. I think Lennon should be used as this type because he has traits that would make him valuable. He reads the game well, makes good decisions and uses the ball well. Nice height also. Rutten could mold his defensive side.

In short we need to improve on all lines. We need better mids, more dangerous forwards and a couple of pieces down back.

A grade mids are always handy and I wouldn't say no to another couple, I just think if we had improved our ability to score and use our inside 50's better we would be a higher ranked team. Like I pointed out in my long OP we often beat our opponents at inside 50 count and clearances and contested possessions. What lets us down is failure to turn those stats into goals.

I think the positions Deledio and Martin play right now is ideal as they can hurt a team so many ways and still kick 3-4 goals between them every week. We need Ty to go to a 40+ goals kicker and Griff to 25+ but we also need a small forward that will kicks us 30 plus goals like Wingard, Rioli, Breust, Ballentine, McGlynn and Jetta. It makes teams panic a bit more in defensive 50 and provides more scoring opportunities.

 

[Tomnat Tigers]

I think we need more midfield depth to allow Deledio and Martin to spend the majority of time forward. We need improvement from Griffiths and Vickery. We know we get goals from Jack.

If we can get that extra depth in the middle and push A graders to tye forward line in Deledio and Martin it should help.

I agree we need that small forward though. That electric pace. The X Factor.

Gartlett will cost a bit from what I hear. Carlton love to over rate their players.

Down back I think we are two starting men short. Newman and Morris need replacing. So a small defender who can negate but also use the pill. A Duryea from Hawthorn type. Also another half back who can use the ball well and provide dash. I think Lennon should be used as this type because he has traits that would make him valuable. He reads the game well, makes good decisions and uses the ball well. Nice height also. Rutten could mold his defensive side.

In short we need to improve on all lines. We need better mids, more dangerous forwards and a couple of pieces down back.

This. Only I would be looking to trade Vickery to Geelong for their first and Taylor Hunt or to Freo for their first and Crozier with us also giving them our third rounder. We would then trade our first and second rounder for Shiel (perhaps still under's) and the first rounder we received of either Geelong or Freo to be traded for Tom Mitchell with Batchelor going the other way to replace Malcheski.

So it would look something like this:

Out: Pick 11 + Pick 13/14, Vickery, Batchelor, Pick 29 (is that our second round pick?).
In: Shiel, Mitchell, Crozier.

Our forwardline would then look like:

McDonough-Martin-
-Reiwoldt-
Deledio-Griffiths-Crozier/Gordon/Lloyd

Martin (30-40 goals)
McDonough (20+)
Riewoldt (50-70)
Deledio (30+)
Griffiths (20-25)
Crozier/Gordon/Lloyd (25-30)

That at best is 205 goals from our forwards. Meaning we to match Hawthorn we need 130 goals to come from the likes of Cotchin, Shiel, Mitchell, Edwards, Ellis, Vlastuin, Miles, Maric, Conca. Who this season collectively kicked 75 goals that would put us on roughly 280 goals which puts us near Port. But it should be noted that other than GWS away we didn't beat up on any of the small clubs like we should have.

Anyhow the main point of this post is we shouldn't just settle for one of Shiel and Mitchell but we should actively pursue both so we can release Martin and Deledio as 60+% of the game forwards.

 

[sante]

We lack gamebreakers/match winners. Too many role players IMO.

 

[Calcium Man]

We lack gamebreakers/match winners. Too many role players IMO.

How many match winners do Hawks and Sydney have?

We have four maybe 5. Martin, Lids, Cotchin and Jack, plus maybe Edwards or Ellis.

 

[Frustrated Tiger]

Quiet day Calcium Man???

 

[Spagman]

Vlaustin is a potential match winner. Needs to be let loose and allowed to impose himself though.

 

[sante]

How many match winners do Hawks and Sydney have?

We have four maybe 5. Martin, Lids, Cotchin and Jack, plus maybe Edwards or Ellis.

Understand what you're saying. Maybe I should have said more A graders.

FWIW;

Hawks: Roughy, Rioli, Hodge, Breust, Gunston

Swans: Buddy is their match winner but they have a tonne of A graders in the middle

 

[Cevap_Roll]

This year Garlett, Wangerneen and hopefully Sheil.

Next year Dangerfield.

Done.

 

[TigerImposter]

We lack gamebreakers/match winners. Too many role players IMO.

Role players is just a cover up word for a battler or even better known as list cloggers

 

[sante]

Role players is just a cover up word for a battler or even better known as list cloggers

Agree but you do need some. We have too many.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Role players is just a cover up word for a battler or even better known as list cloggers

Please tell me more about these ' List Cloggers ' are they players who are running around in the ressies or are they players YOU don't like.

 

[TigerImposter]

Please tell me more about these ' List Cloggers ' are they players who are running around in the ressies or are they players YOU don't like.

Both
As people are saying we are inundated with them
They will get you through to possibly top5 at best ,but when finals come you get rammed out in the EF
Even a smart coach with a ninth team full of duds will devise a plan to exploit their weaknesses
Sadly our role players are limited with speed and when the heat is on their skills fade away completely
I don't dislike anyone
I'm just pointing out a common theme that has beenmentioned across this board over the last week

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Both
As people are saying we are inundated with them
They will get you through to possibly top5 at best ,but when finals come you get rammed out in the EF
Even a smart coach with a ninth team full of duds will devise a plan to exploit their weaknesses
Sadly our role players are limited with speed and when the heat is on their skills fade away completely
I don't dislike anyone
I'm just pointing out a common theme that has beenmentioned across this board over the last week

Name them ?

 

[Roachy8]

We lack gamebreakers/match winners. Too many role players IMO.

Was actually thinking the same thing whilst watching Robbie Grey and Ollie Wines drag Port to victory last night.

We love Cotch, Dusty, Lids and Jack but are they capable of such heroics or is it that we lack the support to help them do it?

Dunno...

 

[TigerImposter]

Name them ?

They're pretty obvious go and do a basic check on last weeks post mortem and all the names mentioned become a common theme
I think it's unfair to single players out considering there is so many of them on the list and its quite obvious to most observers
The point is we need to go up another cog otherwise we will be at risk going South

 

[_RT_]

I think we need more midfield depth to allow Deledio and Martin to spend the majority of time forward. We need improvement from Griffiths and Vickery. We know we get goals from Jack.

If we can get that extra depth in the middle and push A graders to tye forward line in Deledio and Martin it should help.

I agree we need that small forward though. That electric pace. The X Factor.

Gartlett will cost a bit from what I hear. Carlton love to over rate their players.

Down back I think we are two starting men short. Newman and Morris need replacing. So a small defender who can negate but also use the pill. A Duryea from Hawthorn type. Also another half back who can use the ball well and provide dash. I think Lennon should be used as this type because he has traits that would make him valuable. He reads the game well, makes good decisions and uses the ball well. Nice height also. Rutten could mold his defensive side.

In short we need to improve on all lines. We need better mids, more dangerous forwards and a couple of pieces down back.

Finally Bob something we can agree on. Add midfield depth and leave Deledio and Martin to create havoc up forward. What I don't agree on though is the need for a small forward, IMO, with some tough Chocco love over summer, is the answer. 8 games 10 goals/15 total scoring shots and doesn't mind tackling, just a shame his head got big. Still there is something there to work with. Having a forward line built around Jack Griffiths Vickery Deledio Martin & Lloyd IMO can cause some real headaches.

With regards the back line, the idea of Lennon down back has some merit on the flank opposite Houli gives us some run and carry as well as great foot skills. Morris in the back pocket fully fit back to his shutdown best with Astbury Rance and Chaplin as the tall options really gives the back line a solid foundation.

That leaves the midfield. For mine a starting group of Maric Cotchin Miles Ellis Conca & Vlastuin, while not absolutely elite is hard and tough and should give us enough ball for that forward line to do damage, while also working hard enough to support the back line. Add in rotational players like Gordon Foley Grigg McDonough and the draftees and the makings for a decent side are there.

 

[Tigerbob]

So _RT_ how do we improve to catch the best sides with nothing coming in to improve us?

 

[Tiger Toffee]

They're pretty obvious go and do a basic check on last weeks post mortem and all the names mentioned become a common theme
I think it's unfair to single players out considering there is so many of them on the list and its quite obvious to most observers
The point is we need to go up another cog otherwise we will be at risk going South

Not to me, name them.

 

[TigerImposter]

Not to me, name them.

Well you will need to spend some time watching our games for season 2014 to come up with a solution
If you think we don't need to upgrade our bottom 6-10 from last week and just keep the same list then we never win a final

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Well you will need to spend some time watching our games for season 2014 to come up with a solution
If you think we don't need to upgrade our bottom 6-10 from last week and just keep the same list then we never win a final

Aaron Edwards, Williams, Darrou, King , Jackson, Orren, Helbig, O'Hanlon, Banfield are all gone, how many more do you want to flick.

 

[TigerImposter]

Aaron Edwards, Williams, Darrou, King , Jackson, Orren, Helbig, O'Hanlon, Banfield are all gone, how many more do you want to flick.

We won't get it done with at least six blokes that played last week
They need to be backup in the ressies otherwise we will not improve. We stagnated from 15 wins to 12 wins plus a 10 goal flogging eased down by Port