Racing August Daily Punt- Aw S**t, Here We Go Again

bigpapagman

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I love MJ, but there's no way in hell I'm taking $1.85 about her.

Hartnell at $5 seems the obvious value I guess, but pretty wide open affair on the next few lines of betting.

Will also have a few sceptical sheckels on the first up Hayes import.
 

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iluvparis

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I love MJ, but there's no way in hell I'm taking $1.85 about her.

Hartnell at $5 seems the obvious value I guess, but pretty wide open affair on the next few lines of betting.

Will also have a few sceptical sheckels on the first up Hayes import.
Geez - if a 100 year old Hartnell can win this first up over 1400 every other one of our WFA gallopers should just get in the sea - i like the boy but $5 seems poison unders at the trip. I'd be quite keen to lay him <$5

MJ is $1.85 because if she can't beat this lot FU over 1400m I give her zero once we got out to 2000 on Cox Plate day when they are all at their peak - she should walk this in if she is half as good as some are hyping her up to be. I was actually coming here to say if she doesn't win this she won't win again.

Probably way too short for the French import and looks standard moronic placement by an Aussie trainer with NFI but if it was a stupid price I could also entertain a few sheckels EW - would be the only thing I would consider backing outside MJ so looks the very definition of a no bet race.
 

bigpapagman

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Geez - if a 100 year old Hartnell can win this first up over 1400 every other one of our WFA gallopers should just get in the sea - i like the boy but $5 seems poison unders at the trip. I'd be quite keen to lay him <$5

MJ is $1.85 because if she can't beat this lot FU over 1400m I give her zero once we got out to 2000 on Cox Plate day when they are all at their peak - she should walk this in if she is half as good as some are hyping her up to be. I was actually coming here to say if she doesn't win this she won't win again.

Probably way too short for the French import and looks standard moronic placement by an Aussie trainer with NFI but if it was a stupid price I could also entertain a few sheckels EW - would be the only thing I would consider backing outside MJ so looks the very definition of a no bet race.

Well that's just it. I think she is, but I'm not taking $1.85 to find out! Big no bet, unless wiser heads prevail and she gets out to $3 or something.
 

FallingLiefs

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don't say this often but hype alone should get Amelia's Contraire home here at belmont. getting even money after first 2 career starts SP shorter than half the black type 2yos in WA in the same race.
 

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iluvparis

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Not sure why people are going off about the price - what did they expect to get in this type of line up. The price that is truly laughable is the $4.20 now Hartnell in a race he was $6.50-$9.50 last year and couldn't even beat Showtime (barely beating Widgee Turf)

As I've already said - Alizee jumped at $1.40 last week
 

iluvparis

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Already mentioned but $1.85 about Mystic Journey is crazy

Neufbosc e/w is my bet here

Backed it ante poste for Melb Cup at 80’s so a keen watch
Backing your Melbourne Cup horse half way through August in a race 600m shorter than anything its ever faced before

 

Viva la Mattner

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If it wins you may as well tear up your Melbourne Cup ticket - it's not winning at Flem in November over 3200 if its wound up for Saturday.
Honestly I highly doubt it will win
On it for the place mainly, but fu** me the way I’ve gone the last 6 months it’d be my luck it gets up at 40’s when I’m on at a place only
 

FallingLiefs

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Old Man Hartnell couldn't beat MJ last time with a dream run, the fact that it's 2nd favourite shows how poor this field is really... MJ is $1.80 for a reason should win comfortably.
we have different definitions of dream run.

MJ did it good but it would be silly to take her high water mark vs his avg-below avg mark as reasoning for pricing. $1.80 way to short would nearly lay her every start until prices start to calm down or she takes the step. that ASM is not where we should be looking for WFA form.

(small margins, 3wnc winner big asterisks next to that race)

on his day Hartnell probably still has everyone bar Happy Clapper/Santa covered in Australia. His weight carrying record is outstanding of late. especially the epsom/doncaster.
 
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FallingLiefs

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Hartnell hasn't looked like winning since the Epsom, 7 mediocre runs and everyone seems to be acting like it's in ripping form...
mediocre.....

gave Brutal 8.5kg in a doncaster. Land of Plenty 6kg in a Toorak. won the epsom with 3.5kg up his sleeve.unplaced in the Cantala (poor), unplaced over 1200. then G1 placed in every other start. carrying weight, then runs into Winx/Alizee.

now MJ has to come to the ball park and improve 2.5kg just to keep the WFA scale at bay.
 

IKnowtheDog

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Overnight at Gowran Park Mogul ran second on debut. Brother to Japan and Sir Isaac Newton. Cost $6.4 million as a yearling
 

iluvparis

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the problem seems to be finding where all the excess percentage will go. can't really find anything you'd want to back to beat her outside a small overlay on Hartnell
Exactly which is why she will start in the red (see Alizee last week)

Hartnell is poison at current prices to any reasonable form analyst based on his last two first up runs.
 
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