August Daily Punt - Happy Birthday

[iluvparis]

I say he is an interesting runner who if has found his best form will be competitive in any of the Melbourne WFA races and somehow you bring up the fact that I didn't want to back Winx at 1.30 first up?

What planet are you on?

I must have missed the part where I said he will open 1.30 and I want to be all over that price.

When did he last show his best? What are his chances of finding it again? Unless you had inside info you couldn't possibly back him first up.

Just providing some accountability given you were potting Winx on completely myth reasons when there where no question marks whatsoever - TS has plenty.

 

[Main Man]

When did he last show his best? What are his chances of finding it again? Unless you had inside info you couldn't possibly back him first up.

Just providing some accountability given you were potting Winx on completely myth reasons when there where no question marks whatsoever - TS has plenty.

Accountability, god you talk a lot of rubbish, you're just making stuff up now, potting Winx.

Saying I don't want to back her at 1.30 first up is a bit different to potting her, anyway you believe what you want to believe.

And again I missed the part where I said I'm going to dive into any price they put up about Tosen Stardom.

Suggesting he is an interesting runner must mean he is a moral in your world?

 

[Main Man]

When did he last show his best? What are his chances of finding it again? Unless you had inside info you couldn't possibly back him first up.

Just providing some accountability given you were potting Winx on completely myth reasons when there where no question marks whatsoever - TS has plenty.

Also you said yourself you weren't backing her so what are you banging on about?

 

[iluvparis]

Also you said yourself you weren't backing her so what are you banging on about?

Because I don't bet odds on not because she wouldn't win

I agree TS is an interesting runner - but when did he last run to his best? Why has he been so average since then? What are the chances he regains that form? Bit of further discussion would be interesting

 

[Main Man]

Because I don't bet odds on not because she wouldn't win

I agree TS is an interesting runner - but when did he last run to his best? Why has he been so average since then? What are the chances he regains that form? Bit of further discussion would be interesting

Sorry I forgot that I said she would be beaten? All I said was that as good as she has been the last 12 months I wouldn't be taking 1.30 about her at 1400M (when she has been better at 1600M +) after an operation as minor as it may have been.

It was a watch race for me so not sure what that has to do with Tosen Stardom being an interesting runner on Saturday.

I'm not suggesting he will definitely find his best, just if he does he will be competitive in anything given the lack of depth we have in Australian middle distance ranks at the moment.

Weir has a knack of getting the best out of horses that have been under performing with other trainers, so no reason why he cannot with this horse.

In any case I think being beaten 3 lengths by A Shin Hikari & Maurice less than 12 months ago at 1800Ms reads pretty well compared to the form of Jaquinot Bay, Miss Rose De Lago and Mahuta.

Talk is that he has been jumping out well, if there is good support for him I would expect him to run well.

 

[iluvparis]

I think there is about a 10% chance he runs near his career best. That career best came in the 2015 Autumn in Australia - a period when, outside Criterion, pretty much zero form has ever held up. Excluding those Australian runs - he only has one real quality performance in his career. His last two runs have been awful. ASH and Maurice form also not looking what it once was of late. Must be questions as to why he has been moved to Australia? Gone at the game and being dumped? Can easily see one or two poor runs and then retirement.

 

[Main Man]

A Shin Hikari had one failure and Maurice is questionable at 2000M, he bolted up in HK over 1600M not so long ago, I wouldn't be questioning their form too much as they are head and shoulders above anything other than Winx that we have going around here at the moment.

I think these form lines are superior to Jacquinot Bay winning Winter championships here in the middle of the July.

Point is he probably doesn't even need to find his best to be competitive against this field level of field.

As for the Japanese getting rid of him, they had him here for the Championships and he bled, they obviously know he is a level below the best in Japan so why not take the money for him when the offer came?

Either that or he is completely cooked but not sure why they were in Australia in the first place if he was gone.

A lightly raced 6yo, no reason why Weir cannot get him going.

But you could be correct, might flop big time and be retired within a couple of runs, in any case is an interesting runner on Saturday.

 

[Main Man]

TAB have put him up as 2nd favorite at $6, interesting to see what the market does with him.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Maurice is overrated on his HK runs. Obviously don't do japan ratings but was let down with his HK wins. a good few lengths off Able Friend pre Queen Anne, did it easy so maybe he's better than what he left there that day.

that A Shin Hikari win in Europe also looks a crazy un-realistic peak, thought he had no chance that day and he probably jumped them a little. not sure either are elite talents that they're made out to be. Tosen Stardom won't get any of mine

 

[Main Man]

You can question their legitimacy as elite talents on the world stage but they have a a bit on the likes of Mahuta and Miss Rose Delago I would have thought.

A Shin Hikari beat LV by 5+ lengths over 2000M, If that is not elite form for Australian racing I'll give it away.

 

[iluvparis]

TAB have put him up as 2nd favorite at $6, interesting to see what the market does with him.

Massive lay at that price

 

[iluvparis]

You can question their legitimacy as elite talents on the world stage but they have a a bit on the likes of Mahuta and Miss Rose Delago I would have thought.

A Shin Hikari beat LV by 5+ lengths over 2000M, If that is not elite form for Australian racing I'll give it away.

Lol Red Cadeaux has a 3 length beating over LV over 2000m and he is a million miles from elite over 10 furlongs

 

[Main Man]

Disappointing that Xtravagant won't go around this weekend, has a spike in temperature today apparently.

Not sure where they kick off now.

 

[iluvparis]

And again - we are comparing ASH and Maurice at their best with a horse that has been out of form for close to 18 months now

 

[iluvparis]

Disappointing that Xtravagant won't go around this weekend, has a spike in temperature today apparently.

Not sure where they kick off now.

What weight would he get in a Rupert Clarke?

 

[Main Man]

Lol Red Cadeaux has a 3 length beating over LV over 2000m and he is a million miles from elite over 10 furlongs

LV just won our best 2000M race behind the Cox Plate, no Winx but beat everyone else.

What has Red Cadeaux got to do with anything in Australia over the past 12 months?

Zero.

 

[Main Man]

What weight would he get in a Rupert Clarke?

He would be up the top I imagine without knowing who is likely to be there.

 

[iluvparis]

LV just won our best 2000M race behind the Cox Plate, no Winx but beat everyone else.

What has Red Cadeaux got to do with anything in Australia over the past 12 months?

Zero.

??? Why only look at the last 12 months? If you look at TS last 12 months he's got none.

The FACT is that in that same race last year RC donkey licked LV - and he is a very moderate 2000m horse. Given how LV went first up I am fairly confident her QE win will be a never to be repeated fluke. Also she beat The USA and Happy Clapper - who while nice horses are hardly world class 2000m gallopers.

 

[iluvparis]

Interestingly Timeform rated the QE one of the lowest editions in recent years. I'm not surprised. The performance didn't even rate in the top 10 for older horses in 2015/16.

 

[Main Man]

??? Why only look at the last 12 months? If you look at TS last 12 months he's got none.

The FACT is that in that same race last year RC donkey licked LV - and he is a very moderate 2000m horse. Given how LV went first up I am fairly confident her QE win will be a never to be repeated fluke. Also she beat The USA and Happy Clapper - who while nice horses are hardly world class 2000m gallopers.

LV was only just going when RC beat her? different horse since late last Spring but you are completely missing the point, LV has just won one of our best races and ASH lapped her only 3 months prior to that.

Take Winx out of it and ASH and Maurice would win just about every race we have here at 1600-2000M for mine.

Hence TS being 3 lengths off them late last year reads well compared to horses like Jacquinot Bay and Mahuta.

 

[Geeves Train]

Arb opportunity on the speed star greyhound races at sandown on Thursday night, tab has polijuice potion at $2.60 vs Allen terminator at $2.70 on Sportsbet and it's a 2 dog race.

Tab does have a clause that the for these match races the winner has to run top 5 out of all 8 dogs in the series for the bet to stand, this means you could get burnt if the winner is slow but also means you could make double if your slow winner wins on Sbet as opposed to tab.

 

[iluvparis]

LV was only just going when RC beat her? different horse since late last Spring but you are completely missing the point, LV has just won one of our best races and ASH lapped her only 3 months prior to that.

Take Winx out of it and ASH and Maurice would win just about every race we have here at 1600-2000M for mine.

Hence TS being 3 lengths off them late last year reads well compared to horses like Jacquinot Bay and Mahuta.

You keep saying this but it's in name only - it was an appallingly weak edition and despite winning dominantly the performance just isn't that good and was bettered by many horses last season.

What did you think of her first up run? I thought she was disappointing - well not really disappointing - she ran as well as I expected - i.e. the level she has shown through most of her career.

Also - it is relatively easy for average horses to run stars to 3-4 lengths by finishing mid-pack - he finished 5th and 7th in those races so in reality was midfield. Look at all the horses that did similar behind BC but did SFA afterwards. There are plenty

 

[Main Man]

I'd like to see the races they had rating higher in that distance range, Winx would have had the top 3 or so but LVs win was up there with anything else.

 

[Main Man]

You keep saying this but it's in name only - it was an appallingly weak edition and despite winning dominantly the performance just isn't that good and was bettered by many horses last season.

What did you think of her first up run? I thought she was disappointing - well not really disappointing - she ran as well as I expected - i.e. the level she has shown through most of her career.

Also - it is relatively easy for average horses to run stars to 3-4 lengths by finishing mid-pack - he finished 5th and 7th in those races so in reality was midfield. Look at all the horses that did similar behind BC but did SFA afterwards. There are plenty

So who are the superstars he has to beat here then?

 

[iluvparis]

I'd like to see the races they had rating higher in that distance range, Winx would have had the top 3 or so but LVs win was up there with anything else.

Well you can believe what you want but Timeform are in my camp

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/tf-rating-summary.asp?tfe=tfsummary1516

They rated her QE 121 - http://www.racingandsports.com.au/e...6-group-1-queen-elizabeth-stakes-story-362952

You're forgetting she beat horses that were handicappers back in the Spring