Aussie Millions 2016

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Essendon
#26
Yeah, I would have bet / folded. But for slightly less, say 20k.

Edit: Which would seem exploitable, but I've only been at the table for 2 orbits and have played no hands with villain so he doesn't know my betting patterns. Betting 20k on that flop is imperceptibly different to betting 25k and should achieve the same outcome but I save 5k if I'm shoved on.
obviously exploitable if you do it multiple times but you can narrow his range right down as you wouldn't think he is playing for stacks vs another large stack on such a soft table unless he has a very good hand

Edit : and 5k is what 1.2BB at that stage? but i guess a penny saved is a penny earned
 
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Ikan Bodoh

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#27
obviously exploitable if you do it multiple times but you can narrow his range right down as you wouldn't think he is playing for stacks vs another large stack on such a soft table unless he has a very good hand

Edit : and 5k is what 1.2BB at that stage? but i guess a penny saved is a penny earned
On its own it is a small amount but these add up over the course of a tournament. If both amounts achieve the same objective, why not bet the lower amount and save the chips.
 
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Essendon
#29
I think I'm going to play one more event ($2.5k 6-max shot clock). The play in the $1k events has been laughably bad, will the increased buy-in weed this out or can I expect more of the same?
I do remember ashley12 saying last year his table was like Honeyman (whiterabbito), obst, himself and two solid online guys and the last guy was just dead money
 

Ikan Bodoh

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#30
I do remember ashley12 saying last year his table was like Honeyman (whiterabbito), obst, himself and two solid online guys and the last guy was just dead money
Sounds like I'll be the dead money then. I'll enjoy the challenge though.

I had figured this event would be filled mainly with the better players who had busted the main already.
 

ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #32
2.5k was a great field from what I hard because of player party and main (I didnt play)

Im pretty over poker but il probably play the Deep Freeze. The 5k isnt worth it for someone of my talent relative to the superstars
 

ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #33
Bricked all of it, poker sucks.

Fun hand from first orbit of the Main event, vs Final Tablist Ari Engel

PRE: We raise MP to 300 at 50-100 with K:hearts:K:spades:, Ari calls in position next in

FLOP: 750: A:spades: K:clubs: J:spades:

We bet 300 and get called

TURN: 1350: 4:diamonds:

We bet 750 and get called again

RIVER: 5:spades:

Plan?
 

Ikan Bodoh

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#34
Bricked all of it, poker sucks.

Fun hand from first orbit of the Main event, vs Final Tablist Ari Engel

PRE: We raise MP to 300 at 50-100 with K:hearts:K:spades:, Ari calls in position next in

FLOP: 750: A:spades: K:clubs: J:spades:

We bet 300 and get called

TURN: 1350: 4:diamonds:

We bet 750 and get called again

RIVER: 5:spades:

Plan?
Given the passive line he has played to the river by calling all the way, I'd put his range as two pair hands (AK, AJ, A4), one pairs (AQ, A10), straights (Q10), and flushes (Q9, suited connectors). You have the blocker to the nut flush, which also counts out pair + flush draw hands peeling the flop.

His two pair and one pair hands shouldn't raise the river if you bet (doubt anyone would turn these into a bluff in the first orbit), so his river raising hands should entirely be hands that beat you. He most likely checks behind with worse hands if you check the river, but will look you up with his two pair hands. This would lead me to bet / fold the river for 1500-ish. The only other option is my mind is to check / call but you might be missing value with this line when he checks behind and the spot is a little tougher if he bets closer to pot than 1/2 pot, whereas you can control this if you lead the river.

Check / folding seems too weak, especially when you hold the Ks which weights his range more to hands that you beat. I wouldn't bet / call either because I can't pick a hand that would get to the river and raise you that you beat.
 

Glenno23

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#35
*Winner Ari Engel ;)

Wouldn't have minded seeing a female win, or Dunst. Not that i have anything against Engel
 

baz_machine

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#36
Bricked all of it, poker sucks.

Fun hand from first orbit of the Main event, vs Final Tablist Ari Engel

PRE: We raise MP to 300 at 50-100 with K:hearts:K:spades:, Ari calls in position next in

FLOP: 750: A:spades: K:clubs: J:spades:

We bet 300 and get called

TURN: 1350: 4:diamonds:

We bet 750 and get called again

RIVER: 5:spades:

Plan?
Ikan is all over it.

Just for giggles, i'm saying he had QQ, JJ or 1010.

Bet the river and cry call a reraise.
 

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ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #37
So no one thought of my possible resolution which is good/bad.

We bet 160
He raise to 6100

Does anyone shove, and potentially light $10k on fire in 15 minutes
 

ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #39
*Winner Ari Engel ;)

Wouldn't have minded seeing a female win, or Dunst. Not that i have anything against Engel
Four years ago at a live event because I was from Perth and half good at pokers most of the pros assumed I was whiterabbito

Nice to see actual whiterabbito cash main again
 

baz_machine

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#40
So no one thought of my possible resolution which is good/bad.

We bet 160
He raise to 6100

Does anyone shove, and potentially light $10k on fire in 15 minutes
Nitsche Lasts Six Hands in the Main Event

Dominik Nitsche in the $25k Challenge
Dominik Nitsche is one of the most successful young players in the game, having won three World Series of Poker bracelet, LAPT Mar del Plata, WPT Johannesburg and he also has a third-place finish in the World Series of Poker Europe Main Event. In total Nitsche has $5.1 million in career tournament earnings, and he just busted the Main Event after playing just six hands.

"Six hands," Ronnie Bardah said in amazement, looking back on the hand he just witnessed, "He only played six hands in the Main Event."

The Main Event has a $10,600 buy in, and six hands of play meant Nitsche's tournament cost a whopping $1,766 per hand.

Bardah, who was seated on Nitsche left, explained to us what happened and the action went as follows.

A player raised to 300 in early position and Pete Matusik, who goes by Chewing Gum Pete, from Brisbane with $360,000 in live tournament earnings, three ANZPT final tables and a victory in the 2011 ANZPT Gold Coast event for $145,100, three-bet to 1,200.

Nitsche, seated on the button, called and both the big blind and initial raiser called as well, putting
on the flop with two spades and one club.

Bardah said, "The dealer thought Nitsche was in the small blind, and he said that the action was on him. Nitsche pointed out that he had the button, and then the other guys said that he thought he had button."

Matusik thought he had the button as well, and after things were cleared up the action was checked to the man from Brisbane.

"Okay, I'll bet," Bardah reenacted Matusik's quote, as he threw out 3,200.

Nitsche raised it up to 8,200 and the other players folded after which Matusik moved all in. The German pro called right away, creating the following showdown.

Nitsche:

Matusik:


The turn was a
and the river brought another
, sending Nitsche to the rail after losing set over set.

Pete Matusik64,000
Dominik NitscheBusted
TAGS: Dominik Nitsche
 

baz_machine

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Essendon
#41
So no one thought of my possible resolution which is good/bad.

We bet 160
He raise to 6100

Does anyone shove, and potentially light $10k on fire in 15 minutes
I assume you figure with the Ks blocker that he cannot be reraising a flush like 89ss as he is more likely to just call with that?

I don't know about shoving over the top. Do you think worse hands can call you if you do shove?
 
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ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #42
If i shoved it would be as a bluff to fold out non nut flushes (and he cant have the nut flush of course
 

baz_machine

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#43
If i shoved it would be as a bluff to fold out non nut flushes (and he cant have the nut flush of course
Well to do that you'd need to be confident that he didn't have Qs. Now obviously you have the Ks and the Js is on the board, so the combos with Qs would be Q10ss (which is never folding a shove as it could only beaten by K9ss / K8ss) and Q9ss. Everything I don't see calling the flop or turn.

Would 109ss call the flop and turn drawing to the non nut flush, as surely you could be up vs KQss.

I just feel his bet just looks so suspicious that I'd pay off Q10ss and hope that he has JJ, which I get is calling and hoping which isn't something you should do to often ;-)
 

ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #44
Because this is a Day 1, he wouldn't know who I was, and I am pretty sure I was rocking out a homeless looking jacket and neckbeard that day, I think its possible to assume he doesnt know who I am (unlike a later day, where seat draws are made available).

Essentially, it comes down as to whether he would think I would ever either

a) Shove worse for value
b) Shove as a bluff, either with or without the blocker.

I don't think that he thinks that I ever would. While it is true that I don't have THAT many combos of nut flushes in my range, if he thinks my bluffing range is a null set (i.e, I am never bluffing) as long as I have one solitary hand that would make sense this way (and all of my Kx Xs hands would, particularly if I bet the turn to fold out Ax) then he can logically fold, even if my nutted type hands are so small.

In hindsight, I wish I had check/raised the turn instead, it is a good hand and time to do so.

Either way, it was a pretty funky spot, made possible by the size of his raise. I could have check/called as well, but I think that is pretty weak and just asking for him to check back an Ax hand and lose value.
 

ashley12

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Thread starter Moderator #45
If I didn't have the Ks I think bet/folding or betting small to induce/call would have been fine.
 

baz_machine

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#46
Because this is a Day 1, he wouldn't know who I was, and I am pretty sure I was rocking out a homeless looking jacket and neckbeard that day, I think its possible to assume he doesnt know who I am (unlike a later day, where seat draws are made available).

Essentially, it comes down as to whether he would think I would ever either

a) Shove worse for value
b) Shove as a bluff, either with or without the blocker.

I don't think that he thinks that I ever would. While it is true that I don't have THAT many combos of nut flushes in my range, if he thinks my bluffing range is a null set (i.e, I am never bluffing) as long as I have one solitary hand that would make sense this way (and all of my Kx Xs hands would, particularly if I bet the turn to fold out Ax) then he can logically fold, even if my nutted type hands are so small.

In hindsight, I wish I had check/raised the turn instead, it is a good hand and time to do so.

Either way, it was a pretty funky spot, made possible by the size of his raise. I could have check/called as well, but I think that is pretty weak and just asking for him to check back an Ax hand and lose value.
well, in the millions half the field was sattie entries, so IF you where a luckbox donk entry and you hit the nut flush, would you actually shove over the top (30k starting stacks?), or would you reraise to 15k (50% of your stack)?

like i'd be thinking "i've got the nuts and want to extract maximum $$$ and a reraise is more likely to be called than a shove" and the shove for value to look like a bluff is probably something that he won't think that i'd do.

now if he shoved you can confidently fold but at least you have 15 k still.... i don't know, that might seem like a weak line and exploitable

definitely an interesting spot as you can play it a lot of different ways.
 

Happy Daze

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#47
^ ^ problem with raising to ~ 15k he only has to be good 45% of the time with a flush to make the call - and remember he's also thinking on the same lines of if I call and lose I still have 15k on what is for him a soft table - with something like the 3rd nuts its a fairly trivial call maths-wise without his tourney life on the line. The fishier play would be to shove which is maybe what he would expect from a Australian rando with the nuts who would never shove just with the nut-blocker: balls out poker I agree and I'm not sure I could do it myself in a 10k. Remember he's also travelled a long way to play this event and spent more money just to play it than you have (in terms of flights/accomodation etc) - it would be sick of him to travel all the way from the Northern Hemisphere to bust in the first level or so to some sattie ring-in.

Maybe this deep and ante-less flop and turn bets should be bigger?
 

ChockNurris

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#49
Bricked all of it, poker sucks.

Fun hand from first orbit of the Main event, vs Final Tablist Ari Engel

PRE: We raise MP to 300 at 50-100 with K:hearts:K:spades:, Ari calls in position next in

FLOP: 750: A:spades: K:clubs: J:spades:

We bet 300 and get called

TURN: 1350: 4:diamonds:

We bet 750 and get called again

RIVER: 5:spades:

Plan?
Bet more on the flop (Board texture) i say 500
2750 on the turn, bet 2200. The only hands that fold the turn are bare flush draws and maybe jx. Ax, qs and ts call almost all turn bets. The raised preflop and called your 3bet so they have a pretty strong hand here. River i would bet/ fold about 1200, or check fold. Only super awesome players would turn their hand into a bluff on the river.

As played i would bet about 1000 and fold to a raise. Pushing people off the 2nd nuts i think is not a profitable play imo, so 3bet shoving the river is bad imo. I assume effective stacks are 10k.

Also check raising the turn is bad also given that he has so many combo draws in his range that would love to see a free card.

Unfortunately this is a hand that you were destined to lose. These sorts of hands are the ones that either tilt you and bust you shortly after, or you rebound from them and do super well in the tourney.

Based on the villians line, its super bad to bet/call the river. He has a flush.
 
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