Aussie Millions 2016

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Made it through to day 2 with 41.9k coming back @ 1.2/2.4k 400 so around 18bb..

Peaked at 46k then went card dead for two hours!
 

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matty_boy08 said:
Made it through to day 2 with 41.9k coming back @ 1.2/2.4k 400 so around 18bb..

Peaked at 46k then went card dead for two hours!
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I'm pretty sure I sat next to you for most of the day (I'm the luckbox who ran up the huge stack). Good to see you made it through.
 
interested to here thoughts on below.

100 / 200 ante 25 (and I have ~15,000 start stack)
1 limper in mid position.
I raise to 700 with KJss the hi jack. Folds, BB calls, limper calls.
Q9ss5x flop.
Check, check, I bet 1200. BB calls, limper fold.
10c (so I have the nuts).
Check, I bet 2200. Call.
River 7s (so I have second nuts). Check.

-------------------
Whats our play here?
 
Comfortably betting river here we can get called by sets/2p even worse FD aswell.

I would make it like 3.5-4.2k & then throw up if he shoved.
 
matty_boy08 said:
Comfortably betting river here we can get called by sets/2p even worse FD aswell.

I would make it like 3.5-4.2k & then throw up if he shoved.
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on review, that's what i thought as well.

i actually checked as i could think of WTF he'd check call two streets without reraising me (set surely would check / reraise the flop or turn) and is not Axss and is 2 pair really calling the scary card on the river? Also the flush draw would have been something like 54ss which i did not think he'd play like that.

i chatted to him at the break and he said he had 99. I'd never play it that way (i'm check raising the flop and jamming the turn).
 
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The river isn't too bad like we could bet AQ & Busted NFD aswell.

So he may call with 99 and people in like 1100's tend to hate folding sets.
 
matty_boy08 said:
The river isn't too bad like we could bet AQ & Busted NFD aswell.

So he may call with 99 and people in like 1100's tend to hate folding sets.
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i should have just worked backwards off how would he play Axss?

He is way more likely to bet the river then check raise and is he really got enough game to bluff shove the river (was mid 50 crown regular).
 
baz_machine said:
i should have just worked backwards off how would he play Axss?

He is way more likely to bet the river then check raise and is he really got enough game to bluff shove the river (was mid 50 crown regular).
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I used to do this alot and it was a MASSIVE leak in my game, I used to think that everyone was capable of bluff shoving the river but realistically that situation & the player being capable enough to think that through is <1% of the time.
 
matty_boy08 said:
I used to do this alot and it was a MASSIVE leak in my game, I used to think that everyone was capable of bluff shoving the river but realistically that situation & the player being capable enough to think that through is <1% of the time.
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It's a definite case of me overthinking it when really if he has the nuts I'm stacking it off with the second nuts and shrugging my shoulders and saying "not my day"
 
baz_machine said:
It's a definite case of me overthinking it when really if he has the nuts I'm stacking it off with the second nuts and shrugging my shoulders and saying "not my day"
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Exactly and the amount of missed value because of that line of thinking is enormous because the times when as I said he has 99/AQ/J8 etc... he will always call a river bet.
 
Yeah I was going to DBI but bank roll management dictated against it.

Going in for the Terminator today!
 
I've played two events so far and I wouldn't mind sanity checking the lines I took in both my bustout hands as I don't have any decent poker playing mates in real life to bounce this stuff off.

My background: I hardly play poker at all any more - the last time I played was last year's Aussie Millions where I played two events and effectively bubbled both. I don't play online anymore (but have made decent pocket money doing so in the past), and only play live rarely as I have a well paying day job and travel a lot overseas. I only play tournaments.

Bustout hand 1

Event 1. I was flight 1 chipleader with $160k which ended up being a top 5 stack on day 2. Doubled up 2 shorties in the first 4 hands on day 2 to drop to 110k then kept an even stack until the bubble, which was the softest bubble I have ever seen and I was back at 160k without going to showdown. Just got moved to a new table after the bubble burst.

Blinds are 2k/4k w/antes. On this table there are 6 short stacks (<15 bbs) and two other stacks about the same as mine. I am sitting to the direct left of the other big stacks. The villain in this hand is Louis Salter. He has been raising most hands in the two orbits I have been at the new table and I have decided to play back at him with most vaguely playable cards.

Villain raised to 8k in HJ with 170k behind, I raised to 20k on the button with 5d 6d (Is this reasonable given the table dynamics?). The rest of the hand pretty much plays itself so I am only really asking about the initial 3-bet.

Villain asks how much I am playing and calls.

Flop: 4d, 6s, 7d.

Villian checks, I bet 25k and call the shove. He has Kd Kx and holds for a top 5 stack.

Bustout hand 2

Terminator - 55-ish left with 36 paid (payouts are weird because it is terminator the min cashes barely cover the buy in). Blinds are 800/1600. Average stack is about 55k. I have 60k and villain has about 125k. I don't know who villain is, but he's a young local who seems to know most of the young tourney regs. I played with him earlier in the day where he busted his first bullet and I had since run up from a low of 3k. On the current table, he's raising a lot (any suited gappers and better), the rest of the table is pretty tight. I've picked him off a couple of times without showdown but have largely been steering clear of him due to easy chips available elsewhere.

He raised to 3500 in mid position. I raise to 8500 in next position with Js Jd with the general intention of playing for stacks (Is this reasonable or should I take a more low variance line here?).

Villain tanks for a fair while and I'm pretty sure is not hollywooding QQ KK or AA, so I snap when he shoves and lose the flip to AQo.

In theory I could have flatted the open and folded the A-high flop and been left with an average stack with a pretty easy table. Should I have taken that option?
 
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I think all hands are fine given read.

Flatting JJ I think would be pretty bad, because he would weight you to pair hands flatting and cbet Axx boards his entire range and just kill you. It's unlucky to lose the flip, but w/e.

My series has been s**t, I mincashed the accum after getting short on the bubble (I folded JJ 5bb deep facing a raise on the button lol) and had two deep runs in the 6max (70th 53 paid) and bounty (46th 32 paid)

Bounty in particular pissed me off, I was a top 10 stack with 50 left and came 46th because I lost five pots I VPIPed in a row.

I was a bounty in that event (I late reged a new table, its not because im special) and it was a fun dynamic. Would do it again
 
ashley12 said:
I think all hands are fine given read.

Flatting JJ I think would be pretty bad, because he would weight you to pair hands flatting and cbet Axx boards his entire range and just kill you. It's unlucky to lose the flip, but w/e.

My series has been s**t, I mincashed the accum after getting short on the bubble (I folded JJ 5bb deep facing a raise on the button lol) and had two deep runs in the 6max (70th 53 paid) and bounty (46th 32 paid)

Bounty in particular pissed me off, I was a top 10 stack with 50 left and came 46th because I lost five pots I VPIPed in a row.

I was a bounty in that event (I late reged a new table, its not because im special) and it was a fun dynamic. Would do it again
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Thanks mate. How much was the bounty worth? In the terminator, each terminator chip was worth $500 and this led to some interesting play. I'd say most people adjusted to this less than optimally.

I think I'm going to play one more event ($2.5k 6-max shot clock). The play in the $1k events has been laughably bad, will the increased buy-in weed this out or can I expect more of the same?
 
nothing wrong with your bust out hands.

with a large stack punishing the weak short stacks, raising suited connectors on the button is fine. 90% of the time he'll give it up. it's a likely that he has a hand flatting another big stack (well 40 BB stack) OOP.

but your stacking off every day of the week on that flop.

curious, what would have you done on a J93 rainbow board? bet / fold?
 
baz_machine said:
nothing wrong with your bust out hands.

with a large stack punishing the weak short stacks, raising suited connectors on the button is fine. 90% of the time he'll give it up. it's a likely that he has a hand flatting another big stack (well 40 BB stack) OOP.

but your stacking off every day of the week on that flop.

curious, what would have you done on a J93 rainbow board? bet / fold?
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Yeah, I would have bet / folded. But for slightly less, say 20k.

Edit: Which would seem exploitable, but I've only been at the table for 2 orbits and have played no hands with villain so he doesn't know my betting patterns. Betting 20k on that flop is imperceptibly different to betting 25k and should achieve the same outcome but I save 5k if I'm shoved on.
 
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