Aussie Summer of Cycling 2026

[eth-dog]

You are really overrating the prologue.

No chance to win = Buitrago, O'Connor, Plapp (extremely overrated by Australian's as a GC rider. Tell me when the last time was Plapp shone at the TDU in the GC or any GC for that matter), Van Eetvelt, Haig.

Minus Plapp, Narvaez should beat half of them in the prologue or lose one or two seconds.

TDU is usually won by riders with a sprint due to the insane bonus seconds. Rules Buitrago, O'Connor Haig etc out immediately.

You're underrating it. Plus Plapp finished 6th last year without an ITT, only 24 seconds behind Narvaes. Finished 6th in a stacked Paris-Nice 2024, including finishing ahead of Bernal, Roglic, Gall and Almeida. Finished second to Remco in UAE in 23, beating A Yates, Bilbao, Kuss and Tiberi. 9th in a strong Romandie in 22. And this is all before he turns 25.

He's losing time on all of them in any ITT. You're closing yourself off to many riders who can win this. Yeah, bonus seconds could count but saying any of those guys are "no chance" is just setting yourself up to fail.

You also overrate Narvaez ITT ability, especially in a prologue that isn't very technical that brings him back to the pack. Also, his head to heads with the others mentioned:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/ben-o-connor/jhonatan-narvaez/tt-same-results 11-1 BOC
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/luke-plapp/tt-same-results 4-0 Plapp
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/jay-vine/tt-same-results 3-1 Vine
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rid...aez/santiago-buitrago-sanchez/tt-same-results 5-0 Buitrago
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/adam-yates/tt-same-results 7-1 Yates
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/lennert-van-eetvelt/tt-same-results 3-1 Van Eetvelt
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/jack-haig/tt-same-results 7-1 Haig
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/finn-fisher-black/tt-same-results 5-0 FFB
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/mauro-schmid/tt-same-results 8-2 Schmid
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/matteo-sobrero/tt-same-results 12-0 Sobrero
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/guillaume-martin/tt-same-results 5-3 Martin

I even threw Guillaume Martin in there as a GC rider who is famously terrible at ITT's and he has a losing H2H record against him. The 2 against Schmid is a genuine surprise though, same with beating Vine but that was Vine's first year as a pro in fairness. If he beats any of the GC candidates in the ITT it'll be a surprise (apart from Martin), and I'd be expecting significant losses to Plapp, Vine, Schmid and Sobrero at a minimum

Jayco will dominate. All about who they ride for.

BOC or Plapp. Expect one of Durbridge or O'Brien in the break with one of McKenzie or Porter, with the other two protecting those two. I'd say O'Brien would be the option as he's probably the one who can win in a sprint finish if necessary

 

[SpecialBruce]

You're underrating it. Plus Plapp finished 6th last year without an ITT, only 24 seconds behind Narvaes. Finished 6th in a stacked Paris-Nice 2024, including finishing ahead of Bernal, Roglic, Gall and Almeida. Finished second to Remco in UAE in 23, beating A Yates, Bilbao, Kuss and Tiberi. 9th in a strong Romandie in 22. And this is all before he turns 25.

He's losing time on all of them in any ITT. You're closing yourself off to many riders who can win this. Yeah, bonus seconds could count but saying any of those guys are "no chance" is just setting yourself up to fail.

You also overrate Narvaez ITT ability, especially in a prologue that isn't very technical that brings him back to the pack. Also, his head to heads with the others mentioned:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/ben-o-connor/jhonatan-narvaez/tt-same-results 11-1 BOC
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/luke-plapp/tt-same-results 4-0 Plapp
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/jay-vine/tt-same-results 3-1 Vine
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rid...aez/santiago-buitrago-sanchez/tt-same-results 5-0 Buitrago
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/adam-yates/tt-same-results 7-1 Yates
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/lennert-van-eetvelt/tt-same-results 3-1 Van Eetvelt
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/jack-haig/tt-same-results 7-1 Haig
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/finn-fisher-black/tt-same-results 5-0 FFB
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/mauro-schmid/tt-same-results 8-2 Schmid
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/matteo-sobrero/tt-same-results 12-0 Sobrero
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/jhonatan-narvaez/guillaume-martin/tt-same-results 5-3 Martin

I even threw Guillaume Martin in there as a GC rider who is famously terrible at ITT's and he has a losing H2H record against him. The 2 against Schmid is a genuine surprise though, same with beating Vine but that was Vine's first year as a pro in fairness. If he beats any of the GC candidates in the ITT it'll be a surprise (apart from Martin), and I'd be expecting significant losses to Plapp, Vine, Schmid and Sobrero at a minimum

BOC or Plapp. Expect one of Durbridge or O'Brien in the break with one of McKenzie or Porter, with the other two protecting those two. I'd say O'Brien would be the option as he's probably the one who can win in a sprint finish if necessary

UAE have this unless Yates, Narvaez and Vine all crash out.

 

[eth-dog]

UAE have this unless Yates, Narvaez and Vine all crash out.

They're favourites, yes. But they've won the race twice. But until the race is run it's hard to say they "have this" either way.