Selection is getting pretty tough for Australia, lots of cricketing talent around.
IMO changes to the side should be Watson out, Clarke in, Hazelwood out Cummings in. The big dilemma will be when Faulkner is fit, if we have a fit team to pick from, Mitch Marsh has been very good with both bat and ball but Faulkner is a match winner with the bat and an excellent death bowler.
Bailey is in form, made runs in the warm up, made runs again the other day in the opener and has an average of over 42 which IMO is good enough to keep him in, if not for his leadership as his captaincy has been very very good. If would be stupid if they drop him for Clarke who has struggled for ODI form of recent years.
Watson is the player to go, his bowling isn't overly useful anymore since he's lost 5-10km of pace. He's a flat track bully and not reliable to facing the moving ball. He's been very good in the past but he's played a lot of cricket recently and done very little. All this rubbish about Clarke replacing Bailey and Watson being on notice is just that, rubbish. You don't drop a guy making runs for one who isn't. How long are we willing to have Watson on notice? How long are we willing to wait? Until the world cup is over and it's cost us a cup? You pick the team with the best form, if we don't this just reeks of boys club, pick your favorites/mates mentality.
The other aspect is team structure. You need two genuine openers which we have and you need to bat your best batsmen at number 3 which we haven't had. IMO this is our weakness, this is where teams like South Africa have us. Clarke or Smith should be batting at 3. Personally I'd go with Clarke, he might be lacking some match practice but when fit he's just about our best batsman, has the skill to bat there and he needs to bat early as he's not a real slogger of the ball, more a classic batsman. Smith is much the same but he may be better at scoring against tighter fields that you will get later in the match.
Hazelwood is a good talented young bowler but he wasted the new ball the other night and bowled garbage. The way I see it, our depth of talent is that good, if you stuff up then someone else comes in the next game particularly if you haven't got a run of great form behind you.
Pick guys who are in form, handle the pressure and take their opportunities and we'll win the cup. Pick favorites, pick mates, pick regulars because you can't change your mind and it will be our undoing as it has been for so many times in the past.