Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

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Kwality

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Real wage growth as opposed to nominal wage growth.

Super levy quite obviously isn't about helping workers in the now.

Nonetheless, it is a bullshit argument promulgated by dipsticks like Bragg.
Worse than it being a bullshit argument, its sole purpose is to attempt to dismantle the large industry super funds.
I'm suggesting it is to do with the cost of wages & that includes super & Workcare in addition to holidays, payroll tax, sick leave.
All the costs an employer saves if they dont employ someone.

Employers pay the Super increase, its a real cost & that it doesnt end up in the pay packet is exactly how it was always planned.
 

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HairyO

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Simple prediction.
Next winter will see more for sale signs than at any other time in our history .
Most politicians have multiple investment properties. They will destroy government finances before allowing their personal wealth to take a big hit.

Labor arent interested in doing anything either. And the Greens will never matter enough to do a thing when both major parties are in agreement.
 

Kwality

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Most politicians have multiple investment properties. They will destroy government finances before allowing their personal wealth to take a big hit.

Labor arent interested in doing anything either. And the Greens will never matter enough to do a thing when both major parties are in agreement.
There is the issue of those in the rental market who need a roof over their head.

The advantage of household real estate as an investment over other available choices is the regularity of the income. Commercial real estate can provide a greater return however it is subject more directly to the economy of the small business sector.
 
Jul 24, 2021
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What makes you say that?
Lived through 4 downturns and this will be equal to the worst.
People have over spent.
Did the whole of the east coast and the amount of boats jet skis cheap Chinese 4wd,s that won't be brought after the market collapse will bring young people undone, they think this booming overspending market will go on forever.
As soon as baldy turns off the tap you better find a thick bit of for to chew on.
That's why slommo is lining up an early election.
Look at them pushing out every smiling person and diatribe that gets em through the impending disaster.

Albo couldn't deal with it.
 

Kwality

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Lived through 4 downturns and this will be equal to the worst.
People have over spent.
Did the whole of the east coast and the amount of boats jet skis cheap Chinese 4wd,s that won't be brought after the market collapse will bring young people undone, they think this booming overspending market will go on forever.
As soon as baldy turns off the tap you better find a thick bit of for to chew on.
That's why slommo is lining up an early election.
Look at them pushing out every smiling person and diatribe that gets em through the impending disaster.

Albo couldn't deal with it.
At some point one of our leaders are going to wear the dissatisfaction - as much as the rusted on voters will simply sook & not change their vote, the swinging vote will reflect the swelling discontent with how Covid has been handled.

Then again, how we stand against the rest of the world will count for something.
ScoMo, Gladys or Dan will need to convince the swinging voters they've done a good job, as much as that offends the enthusiasts on either side.
 
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Number37

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I'm suggesting it is to do with the cost of wages & that includes super & Workcare in addition to holidays, payroll tax, sick leave.
All the costs an employer saves if they dont employ someone.

Employers pay the Super increase, its a real cost & that it doesnt end up in the pay packet is exactly how it was always planned.
And WTF does that have to do with what you wrote?

Workers have not seen any of the productivity gains flow into their income.
Most, if not all, of the productivity gains have gone straight to the holders of capital.
The Super guarantee increase was a means of getting some of the productivity gains to flow into the income of workers.

What is supposed to happen is that holders of capital and workers split productivity gains. THIS HASN"T HAPPENED FOR 5 years.

Before you provide yet another abstract, unrelated word salad....the productivity gains are real, have all ready happened and workers are entitled to their share.
ie Employers are effectively stealing money from workers.
 

Kwality

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And WTF does that have to do with what you wrote?

Workers have not seen any of the productivity gains flow into their income.
Most, if not all, of the productivity gains have gone straight to the holders of capital.
The Super guarantee increase was a means of getting some of the productivity gains to flow into the income of workers.

What is supposed to happen is that holders of capital and workers split productivity gains. THIS HASN"T HAPPENED FOR 5 years.

Before you provide yet another abstract, unrelated word salad....the productivity gains are real, have all ready happened and workers are entitled to their share.
ie Employers are effectively stealing money from workers.
Do you believe the 10% super is irrelevant ?

I asked for a similar graph on labour as it will demonstrate the point you are trying to make. Go figure.
 

Number37

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Do you believe the 10% super is irrelevant ?

I asked for a similar graph on labour as it will demonstrate the point you are trying to make. Go figure.
Irrelevant to what?

Employers aren't paying Super out of the goodness of their heart. Employers don't pay holiday pay, sick pay etc out of their goodness of their heart.
They're paying all of those things because it is part of what workers are entitled to.
 

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HirdsTheWord

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And WTF does that have to do with what you wrote?

Workers have not seen any of the productivity gains flow into their income.
Most, if not all, of the productivity gains have gone straight to the holders of capital.
The Super guarantee increase was a means of getting some of the productivity gains to flow into the income of workers.

What is supposed to happen is that holders of capital and workers split productivity gains. THIS HASN"T HAPPENED FOR 5 years.

Before you provide yet another abstract, unrelated word salad....the productivity gains are real, have all ready happened and workers are entitled to their share.
ie Employers are effectively stealing money from workers.
EXACTLY.
 

HirdsTheWord

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At some point one of our leaders are going to wear the dissatisfaction - as much as the rusted on voters will simply sook & not change their vote, the swinging vote will reflect the swelling discontent with how Covid has been handled.

Then again, how we stand against the rest of the world will count for something.
ScoMo, Gladys or Dan will need to convince the swinging voters they've done a good job, as much as that offends the enthusiasts on either side.
The dissatisfaction will eventually come, though not anytime soon. When younger people who have to deal with this housing market grow up and end up voting against the things that have ruined it, IE negative gearing and the like. The governments total lack of a long term plan for housing will hit hard eventually, housing has only ever been dealt with in short term policy.

The problem is like I had said the damage is largely done now, the new way of the future will be million dollar mortgages will become standard place, which will force banks to move onto 40 year mortgage product and possibly even further. This means an aging workforce to pay off these mortgages and an inevitable drop in consumer spending to do so.

The only reason labor dropped their policy on negative gearing is because the majority of the voting population right now are home owners and don't want property to drop. Labor has fu** all chance of getting elected by keeping it, again, more short term policy.
 
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Kwality

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The dissatisfaction will eventually come, though not anytime soon. When younger people who have to deal with this housing market grow up and end up voting against the things that have ruined it, IE negative gearing and the like. The governments total lack of a long term plan for housing will hit hard eventually, housing has only ever been dealt with in short term policy.

The problem is like I had said the damage is largely done now, the new way of the future will be million dollar mortgages will become standard place, which will force banks to move onto 40 year mortgage product and possibly even further. This means an aging workforce to pay off these mortgages and an inevitable drop in consumer spending to do so.

The only reason labor dropped their policy on negative gearing is because the majority of the voting population right now are home owners and don't want property to drop. Labor has fu** all chance of getting elected by keeping it, again, more short term policy.
The Labor policy on negative gearing was a 'tax the rich' reaction that appealed to narrow group of its support base.It was poorly thought out, if at all.
It would be relatively simple to limit the access to to the negative gearing on houses & units but it would create loop holes that would open up loop holes that lawyers & accountants would offer to their clients.
 

Michael Corleone

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Property prices in Australia will never crash. What you are seeing is the transition of Australian cities from suburban to the super urban cities of East and South Asia. Suburbia is a dead form of living confined to the 20th century. Look to Hong Kong as your example of how you will live, and buy with that in mind.
 

Kwality

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Property prices in Australia will never crash. What you are seeing is the transition of Australian cities from suburban to the super urban cities of East and South Asia. Suburbia is a dead form of living confined to the 20th century. Look to Hong Kong as your example of how you will live, and buy with that in mind.
Fine if you've got multiple properties - that land tax ....
 

hamohawk1

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I can't for the life of me work out how properties around the $2-3 million dollar mark are getting changed over (sold) so quickly. I'd like to think its not FHO buying them, but unless you have serious equity how do you afford the 6-10k a month mortgage even at current low rates.
 

Retzlaff

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I can't for the life of me work out how properties around the $2-3 million dollar mark are getting changed over (sold) so quickly. I'd like to think its not FHO buying them, but unless you have serious equity how do you afford the 6-10k a month mortgage even at current low rates.
Just regular folk who bought in at lower prices 1-2 houses ago and have built up equity
 

Madas

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Aug 16, 2020
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Simple prediction.
Next winter will see more for sale signs than at any other time in our history .
I’m waiting about 2 years to buy a nice barely used landcruiser and near new caravan. I reckon there are going to be a hell of a lot on the market .
The amount of 30-40 year olds I’ve seen driving around in close to $200k worth of toys is staggering.
I have no idea how they can afford it let alone all the time off they seem to have cruising around living the dream .?
Got me stuffed ?!
 
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Madas

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Lived through 4 downturns and this will be equal to the worst.
People have over spent.
Did the whole of the east coast and the amount of boats jet skis cheap Chinese 4wd,s that won't be brought after the market collapse will bring young people undone, they think this booming overspending market will go on forever.
As soon as baldy turns off the tap you better find a thick bit of for to chew on.
That's why slommo is lining up an early election.
Look at them pushing out every smiling person and diatribe that gets em through the impending disaster.

Albo couldn't deal with it.
Haha
Just scrolled down and seems we are both grumpy old Gen X’ers with similar views .
I have to agree .
Just got back from a trip up north and the rigs these young crew were in blew my trucking mind .
seriously the 4x4 and camping stores must absolutely cream themselves when these young crew walk through the doors .
 
Jul 24, 2021
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Haha
Just scrolled down and seems we are both grumpy old Gen X’ers with similar views .
I have to agree .
Just got back from a trip up north and the rigs these young crew were in blew my trucking mind .
seriously the 4x4 and camping stores must absolutely cream themselves when these young crew walk through the doors .
In Geelong I go to the boat launching pads generally Limeburners and Clifton springs.
The amount of 40 yo boys with 65,000 fwd,s and 70,000 dollar boats is amazing. Then there wife rolls into carport with the ubiquitous 50,000 BMW never driver on dirt 4wd is gobsmacking.
Nephew of mine actually tried to justify it, to no avail.
The price will have to be paid, and only a financial reset will do it.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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I’m waiting about 2 years to buy a nice barely used landcruiser and near new caravan. I reckon there are going to be a hell of a lot on the market .
The amount of 30-40 year olds I’ve seen driving around in close to $200k worth of toys is staggering.
I have no idea how they can afford it let alone all the time off they seem to have cruising around living the dream .?
Got me stuffed ?!
Retzlaff zlaff said it best.

Just regular folk who bought in at lower prices 1-2 houses ago and have built up equity
New cars are on 6m back order, so people have time to refinance their homes to release the equity - equivalent of 2% car loans. I can only hope they choose to pay back at a rate to clear loans in the 3-5yr they would otherwise be.

Car Loan finance (Credit Cards, etc) appear ridiculously easy to get.
 

Kwality

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The first move in interest rates:
APRA tightens home loan rules, raises interest rate benchmark

The banking regulator has announced tougher serviceability tests for home loans, which will make it harder for some borrowers to get a mortgage.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has increased the minimum interest rate buffer on home loan applications from 2.5 to 3 per cent.

This means that banks will have to test whether new borrowers can still afford their mortgage repayments if home loan interest rates rose to be 3 percentage points above their current rate.
 

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