Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

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TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
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Marx 100 year ago predicted the property price crash and land grab cycle. The next stage is large private enterprises come in, buy up massive portions of the commons at low cost as smaller private and government agents panic sell. Its part of the ever increasing concentration of wealth/power within an ever reducing number of people.
Yep we have a massive need for property taxes or the ordinary will be squeezed out to the margins
 

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Herne Hill Hammer

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I mentioned this in the, Has Australia become the new India?, thread this morning after there was a brief discussion about it on ABC News 24 this morning.

They basically said not to buy off the plan an don't buy into anything that isn't at least 10 years old, owing to the fact that most of them only have a 6 year warranty when you move into them.
 

CheapCharlie

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I mentioned this in the, Has Australia become the new India?, thread this morning after there was a brief discussion about it on ABC News 24 this morning.

They basically said not to buy off the plan an don't buy into anything that isn't at least 10 years old, owing to the fact that most of them only have a 6 year warranty when you move into them.
And still being built
 

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TheBrownDog
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I dare say we need a Federal Review for high density housing.

High density is great for government as it lowers the cost of infrastructure and allows for pork barrelling but has ultimately resulted in paying more for less and more for lower quality housing.

In an age of communication and the ability to shop, work and even "eat out" from home should have spawned decentralisation and nation building. We should have had governments promoting the growth of our 100,0000-1,000,000 cities with low traffic issues, low land prices and wonderful lifestyles. Instead we have crap quality housing stock, living like animals on top of each other at crazy prices.

I knocked back a decent 3 bedroom house in Mt Hawthorn (a quality family suburb 5 kms out of Perth), on a 700m2 block, in the 90s asking $130k. Fair price based on 4% growth would mean the house is worth $330k today but they are more like $800k.......ridiculous.

high density has permanently changed Australia and our youth are paying a massive price for poor and lazy government policy. Bring back nation building!
 

CheapCharlie

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This article stayed on the front of the ABC site for some time
Buying a new high-rise apartment is a risk best avoided

I write this piece as one of the lucky apartment owners.
Lucky not because I managed to break into the apartment market, but because I survived it financially intact.
In 2008 I purchased a two-bedroom apartment in a six-level complex near a good rail service not too far from the Sydney CBD. The development had won environmental awards, it shared a site with local council facilities, and was almost six years old. The building inspection report produced no major issues.
What could go wrong?
Within two years we were in full pursuit of a home owner warranty insurance claim to fund about $3 million worth of defect repairs. The external render was falling off, and balconies and bathrooms were leaking into apartments. The builder and developer had evaporated, leaving the insurer as the last resort.
The claim was robustly defended by the insurance company and failure would see apartment owners liable, on average, for around $50,000 each. Fortunately, by late 2014 we had agreed on a settlement. The long, disruptive repairs process was eventually completed in late 2016 and in mid-2017 we sold out.
I can't "name names" because of the settlement. And this is part of the problem.
All too often, legal action against a builder, developer or insurer ends with a settlement which involves a non-disclosure agreement.
 

The Edukator

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This article stayed on the front of the ABC site for some time
Buying a new high-rise apartment is a risk best avoided

I write this piece as one of the lucky apartment owners.
Lucky not because I managed to break into the apartment market, but because I survived it financially intact.
In 2008 I purchased a two-bedroom apartment in a six-level complex near a good rail service not too far from the Sydney CBD. The development had won environmental awards, it shared a site with local council facilities, and was almost six years old. The building inspection report produced no major issues.
What could go wrong?
Within two years we were in full pursuit of a home owner warranty insurance claim to fund about $3 million worth of defect repairs. The external render was falling off, and balconies and bathrooms were leaking into apartments. The builder and developer had evaporated, leaving the insurer as the last resort.
The claim was robustly defended by the insurance company and failure would see apartment owners liable, on average, for around $50,000 each. Fortunately, by late 2014 we had agreed on a settlement. The long, disruptive repairs process was eventually completed in late 2016 and in mid-2017 we sold out.
I can't "name names" because of the settlement. And this is part of the problem.
All too often, legal action against a builder, developer or insurer ends with a settlement which involves a non-disclosure agreement.
I used to work for canny some years ago. They were notoriously bad at fixing defects and there's plenty of reviews backing this up. They just went under in the last month.

IMO they always underestimated the build cost and were forced to use s**t trades. Poor quality is the outcome and defects ensue.
 

Royal Flush

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I dare say we need a Federal Review for high density housing.

High density is great for government as it lowers the cost of infrastructure and allows for pork barrelling but has ultimately resulted in paying more for less and more for lower quality housing.

In an age of communication and the ability to shop, work and even "eat out" from home should have spawned decentralisation and nation building. We should have had governments promoting the growth of our 100,0000-1,000,000 cities with low traffic issues, low land prices and wonderful lifestyles. Instead we have crap quality housing stock, living like animals on top of each other at crazy prices.

I knocked back a decent 3 bedroom house in Mt Hawthorn (a quality family suburb 5 kms out of Perth), on a 700m2 block, in the 90s asking $130k. Fair price based on 4% growth would mean the house is worth $330k today but they are more like $800k.......ridiculous.

high density has permanently changed Australia and our youth are paying a massive price for poor and lazy government policy. Bring back nation building!
Without high density dwellings, the inner city houses would be a lot more then they are now.

The market dictates prices, the more desirable the property, the greater the demand, and price goes up.


Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

Steinfreo

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I dare say we need a Federal Review for high density housing.

High density is great for government as it lowers the cost of infrastructure and allows for pork barrelling but has ultimately resulted in paying more for less and more for lower quality housing.

In an age of communication and the ability to shop, work and even "eat out" from home should have spawned decentralisation and nation building. We should have had governments promoting the growth of our 100,0000-1,000,000 cities with low traffic issues, low land prices and wonderful lifestyles. Instead we have crap quality housing stock, living like animals on top of each other at crazy prices.

I knocked back a decent 3 bedroom house in Mt Hawthorn (a quality family suburb 5 kms out of Perth), on a 700m2 block, in the 90s asking $130k. Fair price based on 4% growth would mean the house is worth $330k today but they are more like $800k.......ridiculous.

high density has permanently changed Australia and our youth are paying a massive price for poor and lazy government policy. Bring back nation building!
I've done PC inspections for half a dozen hotels and apartment buildings in Perth. Over half the dodgy work dont is the direct result of builders not paying subbies on time, using cheap foreign products, or the big builders using cheap underqualified subbies. I remember on one site on Adelaide Tce written up and down every corridor Diploma are campaigners in massive letters. Do you think people who are feeling like that are doing a good job? How can you blame anyone but the developers/builders here? The government gets asked by developers/building industry to stimulate construction by changing R-values, they do it, the industry abuses it. Simple as that. This is a symptom of a diseased private sector that is facing the abyss.

Descentralisation is a bad thing bro. its another avenue business owners can use to make savings and increase profits at the cost of the employees work/life balance. the mobile/flexible/home based workforce scam is one of the most serious social problems we will face down the track. It basically makes it impossible for workers to talk to each other and mobilise when they are getting shafted and its going to cost us in the long term.
 

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TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
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I've done PC inspections for half a dozen hotels and apartment buildings in Perth. Over half the dodgy work dont is the direct result of builders not paying subbies on time, using cheap foreign products, or the big builders using cheap underqualified subbies. I remember on one site on Adelaide Tce written up and down every corridor Diploma are campaigners in massive letters. Do you think people who are feeling like that are doing a good job? How can you blame anyone but the developers/builders here? The government gets asked by developers/building industry to stimulate construction by changing R-values, they do it, the industry abuses it. Simple as that. This is a symptom of a diseased private sector that is facing the abyss.

Descentralisation is a bad thing bro. its another avenue business owners can use to make savings and increase profits at the cost of the employees work/life balance. the mobile/flexible/home based workforce scam is one of the most serious social problems we will face down the track. It basically makes it impossible for workers to talk to each other and mobilise when they are getting shafted and its going to cost us in the long term.
I agree on the R codes.

Decentralisation of our industry out of major cities and to regional towns, will provide a better quality of life. People applaud those "happiness surveys" where Norway and Adelaide come out on top. The major reason for this is smaller cities translates to shorter commuter times and more time with families.
 

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TheBrownDog
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Without high density dwellings, the inner city houses would be a lot more then they are now.

The market dictates prices, the more desirable the property, the greater the demand, and price goes up.


Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
the higher the yield per square metre, the higher the value


decentralisation and reversing density lowers values. This could be achieved through property taxes and redeploying infrastructure to nation building rather than pork barrelling
 

Steinfreo

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I agree on the R codes.

Decentralisation of our industry out of major cities and to regional towns, will provide a better quality of life. People applaud those "happiness surveys" where Norway and Adelaide come out on top. The major reason for this is smaller cities translates to shorter commuter times and more time with families.
Time with your family is super important for sure, but the quality of that time spent with them is dictated by your time away from them. What you need to ask yourself is why are business owners/operators so keen to decentralise? If your a dirty leftie like me you believe a class struggle underpins all work place relations. What are you sacirificing by being able to work from home all the time? Is this a post post-fordism where workers are going to struggle even more to advocate for themselves? How do you go to the managers office and complain about you holiday pay if theres not manager or office?

People hate their jobs so much these days, why? More than #metoo or brown people I think the working man is feeling insecure about his position in this world because he feels insecure in his work, in my opinion decentralisation/mobility/flexibility/upskill/KPI facilitates insecurity while not improving production.
 

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TheBrownDog
Oct 15, 2004
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Time with your family is super important for sure, but the quality of that time spent with them is dictated by your time away from them. What you need to ask yourself is why are business owners/operators so keen to decentralise? If your a dirty leftie like me you believe a class struggle underpins all work place relations. What are you sacirificing by being able to work from home all the time? Is this a post post-fordism where workers are going to struggle even more to advocate for themselves? How do you go to the managers office and complain about you holiday pay if theres not manager or office?

People hate their jobs so much these days, why? More than #metoo or brown people I think the working man is feeling insecure about his position in this world because he feels insecure in his work, in my opinion decentralisation/mobility/flexibility/upskill/KPI facilitates insecurity while not improving production.
I hear you but perhaps due to age (I trust you're young -20s) I have a different perspective.

People have always felt insecure when they are setting themselves up. You know you're competent, smart and hard working but just looking for your opportunity and to secure your position. but the reality is, it takes time for most and never for some.

It's also daunting as to how to get into the property market. Like it or not, women look for security from their partners in preparation to nesting. Property prices are higher these days but overall no more expensive than before when factoring in single family incomes, higher interest rates etc. What has gone up is expectations be it the quality of homes or even the concept one would buy an avocado, mango or a coffee.

Life has never been better or presented more opportunity.



However I'm grateful I'm in my 40s rather than 20s. There is more change now than ever, so keeping up can be a choir. Social media set expectations way above reality. Security has been traded away for better lifestyles, flexibility, greater incomes, travel, better jobs and better conditions.

For me, security is for the weak (easy to say when you're 40). I look at my peers who pursued security and it's ugly. Even the successful "security" jobs end in misery. Take a Partner at a legal firm, accounting firm, a doctor or lawyer..............doing the grind to get to the top, mindless repetitious work (as any job after 20 years becomes), trapped in their golden cage.

They earn big bucks, by a big house, buy a mid life crisis car in pursuit of happiness, marry a women addicted to the income, have their kids at private schools to do the right thing, spend too much time away from the family to keep the $s rolling in to fund the families lifestyle, grow apart from their families, long for a career change but know they can't demand the same income elsewhere and as a result.............simply rot their soul. Cheating with the secretary or drugs becomes the vice to make life bearable.



Living life if far more valuable than security. Working for yourself is way harder than a job but also way more enjoyable.
 

Espe

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Probably deserves a dedicated thread, but this absolutely pisses me off.


WTF is wrong with this country.
 

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TheBrownDog
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Probably deserves a dedicated thread, but this absolutely pisses me off.


WTF is wrong with this country.
and to think this is actually one of the major reasons why we pay so much for properties.

- baby boomers sell to foreign investors who pay next to zero tax and launder money here
- youth have to enter a property market with huge debts
- youth can't afford to start their own businesses as they are to debt laden

what a terrible situation we allowed to develop.

It's time for tailored property taxes to reverse this
 

Benny78

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This is a property market Thatcher could be proud of! In 30 years my generation will be renting off Chinese heirs our own age!
 

skilts

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If you must insist upon having a 'free market', this is the inevitable result. Not good, not bad, just inevitable. It would be a deluded and short-lived government which would attempt to dictate that a seller of a property must take a lower bid over a higher one, because the higher bidder is Chinese, Japanese or Somali.
 
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Royal Flush

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If you must insist upon having a 'free market', this is the inevitable result. Not good, not bad, just inevitable. It would be a deluded and short-lived government which would attempt dictate that a seller of a property must take a lower bid over higher one, because the higher bidder is Chinese, Japanese or Somali.
Money is not racist, it always speaks the truth

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

Deliverance

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At least in Vic, Dan Andrews had the good sense to tax overseas buyers extra recently. Sales results seem to have cooled a lot in my local area which has a high Asian population. Noticeably less auctions being won by Chinese buyers also.
 

Steinfreo

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I think the Government should do a mass buy out, and allocate them to student housing, cheap rentals, or some sort of homes west style affordable housing mortgage thing. I know I know 'IT WILL BECOME A GHETTO!' as long as the are well maintained and policed it will maybe have a little more crime but it will revitalise the city (talking about Perth). Look at all the gentrifying areas in NYC, London etc, they are all historically 'ghettoish'. Putting diverse socio economic groups, students etc into the cbd it becomes culture incubator and long term becomes desirable.

Perth really needs a uni in the cbd, I wonder if you could get a campus to move there and get them to buy a bunch of the apartments.
 

The Edukator

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Shock horror. Property prices haven't crashed now that io loans have rolled over to pi and are at the lowest numbers in years.



/URL]
Moreover, there is little evidence yet that the numbers of both owner-occupiers and investors “rolling off” interest-only loans have caused any wider problems in the financial system, with no spike in loan defaults at the major banks.
 

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TheBrownDog
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I think the Government should do a mass buy out, and allocate them to student housing, cheap rentals, or some sort of homes west style affordable housing mortgage thing. I know I know 'IT WILL BECOME A GHETTO!' as long as the are well maintained and policed it will maybe have a little more crime but it will revitalise the city (talking about Perth). Look at all the gentrifying areas in NYC, London etc, they are all historically 'ghettoish'. Putting diverse socio economic groups, students etc into the cbd it becomes culture incubator and long term becomes desirable.

Perth really needs a uni in the cbd, I wonder if you could get a campus to move there and get them to buy a bunch of the apartments.
Putting a uni in Freo killed it

Unfortunately the train lines will always mean Perth city will have a ghetto feel

Knocking down the crappy sub 100m2 apartments would also help avoid ghettos
 

Steinfreo

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Putting a uni in Freo killed it

Unfortunately the train lines will always mean Perth city will have a ghetto feel

Knocking down the crappy sub 100m2 apartments would also help avoid ghettos
Notre Dame killed that part of Freo because they had free reign to do whatever they wanted. That part of Freo has a nice feel during uni hours its dead when there no students unfortunately.
 
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