Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[Port Adel Proud]

On the ABC news (Vic) tonight, they had a lady who had immigrated to Aus a few years ago, and had since set up a mortgage brokerage business for all the new dwellings going up out west (and by gosh theres a lot). The crux of the story was her job and the economy was propped up by this immigration.

Two stats/ statements stood out:
- Australia's population had grown by 9.7% in the last 20 years; and
- Without immigration our economy most likely would have experienced 1/2 recessions since the GFC if not for immigration.

Is our economy that fickle that we need to continually pump people into the country to stop it falling off the face of a cliff.

If so, the blip in the economy over the past few months and lack of immigration over the next 6-12 months is scary, really scary.most of the m

Bingo. Now you have got it. The smaller states have been feeling this for years because most of the immigration is to Sydney and Melbourne.

 

[Deliverance]

Bingo. Now you have got it. The smaller states have been feeling this for years because most of the immigration is to Sydney and Melbourne.

Yep, were phucked here in Melbourne. No tourists, no students, no hospitality. We need better industry.

 

[hamohawk1]

Yep, were phucked here in Melbourne. No tourists, no students, no hospitality. We need better industry.

Tourism and Students could come back, hopefully in more sustainable numbers... you would hope.

 

[Deliverance]

Tourism and Students could come back, hopefully in more sustainable numbers... you would hope.

Not for 6-18 months.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Yep, were phucked here in Melbourne. No tourists, no students, no hospitality. We need better industry.

It's time to start building things in Victoria again. Governments on all levels can lead the way by ensuring their local content targets in all tenders are sufficiently high and non-conforming bids in this regard are ignored.

 

[Port Adel Proud]

Tourism and Students could come back, hopefully in more sustainable numbers... you would hope.

Tourism and the students will very likely come back. But that is not the solution really. Immigration is the fools gold and, without it, the Australian economic emperor has no clothes.

 

[hamohawk1]

It's time to start building things in Victoria again. Governments on all levels can lead the way by ensuring their local content targets in all tenders are sufficiently high and non-conforming bids in this regard are ignored.

Build social housing should be the first point of call.

 

[hamohawk1]

Tourism and the students will very likely come back. But that is not the solution really. Immigration is the fools gold and, without it, the Australian economic emperor has no clothes.

Interesting though as Victoria seems to be the only country that has given a bit of support to the students during this crisis. Think a few states might struggle on reputation to get students back.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Build social housing should be the first point of call.

No need. Without immigration there's going to be a LOT of empty high rises in Melbourne that the DHS can sequester.

 

[Seeds]

On the ABC news (Vic) tonight, they had a lady who had immigrated to Aus a few years ago, and had since set up a mortgage brokerage business for all the new dwellings going up out west (and by gosh theres a lot). The crux of the story was her job and the economy was propped up by this immigration.

Two stats/ statements stood out:
- Australia's population had grown by 9.7% in the last 20 years; and
- Without immigration our economy most likely would have experienced 1/2 recessions since the GFC if not for immigration.

Is our economy that fickle that we need to continually pump people into the country to stop it falling off the face of a cliff.

If so, the blip in the economy over the past few months and lack of immigration over the next 6-12 months is scary, really scary.

in almost all cases a recession is not an economy falling off a cliff. no one would tell the difference between 1 per cent annual growth and -1 per cent annual growth. Yet one is not a recession and the other is actually quite a big recession. We need to stop referencing recessions as a measure of how well the economy and society is doing.

gdp per capita growth over a 10 year moving average would be better.

happiness indicators even better.

 

[Leeda]

Not for 6-18 months. ☹

now this is scary/// levelling the science.. is absolutely rotten..

 

[Leeda]

Build social housing should be the first point of call.

and get people into jobs as well as trying my first lad to get us out of the rider smash box..
you know we all want an exponential world of dynamic... we all rush to the doors when we see a problem..

 

[Rob R]

No need. Without immigration there's going to be a LOT of empty high rises in Melbourne that the DHS can sequester.

Another benefit of what will hopefully be long term large cuts to immigration post virus and better yet foreign investors will hopefully be the ones who get hit by the reduced prices etc

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[Leeda]

No need. Without immigration there's going to be a LOT of empty high rises in Melbourne that the DHS can sequester.

well we challenge everything... so much of a ripper,,

 

[Port Adel Proud]

in almost all cases a recession is not an economy falling off a cliff. no one would tell the difference between 1 per cent annual growth and -1 per cent annual growth. Yet one is not a recession and the other is actually quite a big recession. We need to stop referencing recessions as a measure of how well the economy and society is doing.

gdp per capita growth over a 10 year moving average would be better.

happiness indicators even better.

Productivity is the key to GDP growth per capita. And where might that come from in this increasingly self indulging world ? I think we will be best served by happiness indicators, bearing in mind that some very first world accoutrements like splendid health care might have to be sacrificed as we get poorer.

 

[Cuzz09]

SA will be ok. Just good old even Steven all the time

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[DidakDelight]

The next stage of the economy is printing money or other stimulus. The result will be asset prices protected, banks protected and wage earners get a pay cut (as the currency is worth less).

Holding on is the best thing one can do at the moment......if they can

Yep hold on for sure.
This is the ground zero the banks would have been hoping for.

Massive economic stimulation will arise out of this with higher than normal inflation.

Interest rates will start to finally rise around 12-18 months after all of this finishes.

Whether wages rise in Australia will be the interesting part.

 

[Power Raid]

Yep hold on for sure.
This is the ground zero the banks would have been hoping for.

Massive economic stimulation will arise out of this with higher than normal inflation.

Interest rates will start to finally rise around 12-18 months after all of this finishes.

Whether wages rise in Australia will be the interesting part.

This lower wages through devaluation of currency relative to the developing world will be great for the US and reset another 100 years of domination.

India, Vietnam, indo will also be big winners

Australia might feel some head winds as China’s importance is diminished as others rise

 

[Cuzz09]

If int rates start rising after this (eg say September) how many people lose their homes and how does that impact the economy

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[Seeds]

If int rates start rising after this (eg say September) how many people lose their homes and how does that impact the economy

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Interest rates wont rise. The rba will go negative policy rate to prevent it.

 

[DidakDelight]

If int rates start rising after this (eg say September) how many people lose their homes and how does that impact the economy

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September is a bit too soon for a rise.I’m predicting 12-15 months after we go back to normal with no more restrictions.

So we’re talking late 2021 early 2022 but naturally it all depends on inflation.

 

[Hamingja]

If int rates start rising after this (eg say September) how many people lose their homes and how does that impact the economy

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Would need to rise a lot. While you might get a rate in the low 2s at the moment the assessment to get the loan is done at a floor of ~5% and up until about 6 months ago it was ~7%.

 

[hamohawk1]

Who the f**k wants to pay over a million to live in a house in Bendigo?

 

[freebloke]

I thought Australian house prices can go down more on the margin.. the big question is on the housing in the USA. They have non-recourse loans. Australia doesn't...

 

[hamohawk1]

CBA has predicted a lowering of house prices on a best outcome (10% lower) worst case (33%) lower. I'd like to think it would sit somewhere towards the 10-20% mark, but they might've also fudged the figures to not scare the sh*t out of some of their investors.