Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

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Dec 18, 2007
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I was focussing on cutting foreign migration to Australia so that our net population growth is near zero. I dont see any legal way to force people to move away from the cities just incentives that won't be effective unless we somehow get businesses to move high paying jobs to regional areas.

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Other countries manage to be decenterlised so there is no reason why Australia can't and its an urban myth that most people work close to the CBD.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2008
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So modern Australia which has had a policy of immigration for the last 70 years should abolish that, so that you can buy a house .
Is this really what I'm reading?
Decline in population growth to sensible levels sounds great. Melbouren and Sydney were well on their way to being over populated unlivable dumps with only property investors (including most pollies) were benefiting from.

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Jun 19, 2011
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And why would private landlords agree to free rent?
Government landlords. It doesn't need to be free rent forever.

Or we could just keep spreading the outer suburbs indefinitely and overdeveloping the nner burbs.

Better use of government funds than franking credits, negative gearing and pork barrelled pre election grants.
 
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Government landlords. It doesn't need to be free rent forever.

Or we could just keep spreading the outer suburbs indefinitely and overdeveloping the nner burbs.

Better use of government funds than franking credits, negative gearing and pork barrelled pre election grants.

there are a number of issues with this.

once free, good luck ever getting commercial rents again. companies will threaten to relocate unless the free rent is maintained

also why does NAB get free rent, when Harry's Pies the local baker for 70 years has to pay rent?

and why is the govt subsidizing companies and not building more low cost accommodation for the poor?

also for this to work, you need to move 1m+ people out of melbourne. do bendigo and ballarat want 40-80 storey office towers in their cities to accommodate these workers?
 
Jun 19, 2011
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there are a number of issues with this.

once free, good luck ever getting commercial rents again. companies will threaten to relocate unless the free rent is maintained

also why does NAB get free rent, when Harry's Pies the local baker for 70 years has to pay rent?

and why is the govt subsidizing companies and not building more low cost accommodation for the poor?

also for this to work, you need to move 1m+ people out of melbourne. do bendigo and ballarat want 40-80 storey office towers in their cities to accommodate these workers?
Of course there's issues with it. It's a massive shift in thinking. But what we're doing currently is not sustainable.

Companies sign up knowing its free rent for a fixed term only. Once a city is established the free market will drive rents as it does currently.

Low cost accommodation for the poor? Where are thye going to build that? There's no space inner city, so it's going to need to be a ghetto out near Drouin where there's land but no jobs.

It's insane that 40% of our population lives in 2 cities in a country this big.
 
Of course there's issues with it. It's a massive shift in thinking. But what we're doing currently is not sustainable.

Companies sign up knowing its free rent for a fixed term only. Once a city is established the free market will drive rents as it does currently.

Low cost accommodation for the poor? Where are thye going to build that? There's no space inner city, so it's going to need to be a ghetto out near Drouin where there's land but no jobs.

It's insane that 40% of our population lives in 2 cities in a country this big.

and you know what happens at the end of that fixed term? they leave

you need a reason for businesses to permanently relocate, and cash bribes are only effective as long as they are maintained

drive around melbourne and look at the state of the commission housing. most of it hasnt been touched in 50 years. much of it needs to be bulldozed and replaced with healthier and more efficient housing.

and dont disagree. but notions like yours tend to have one big disclaimer. "lets force everyone else to relocate to Bendigo, except for me, because I like melbourne my family is here and my career is here"
 
Jun 19, 2011
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and you know what happens at the end of that fixed term? they leave

you need a reason for businesses to permanently relocate, and cash bribes are only effective as long as they are maintained

drive around melbourne and look at the state of the commission housing. most of it hasnt been touched in 50 years. much of it needs to be bulldozed and replaced with healthier and more efficient housing.

and dont disagree. but notions like yours tend to have one big disclaimer. "lets force everyone else to relocate to Bendigo, except for me, because I like melbourne my family is here and my career is here"
Its more for the people buying houses in Officer who need to travel 1.5 hours each way to get to work in the CBD.
 
Its more for the people buying houses in Officer who need to travel 1.5 hours each way to get to work in the CBD.

you know why they choose that? because they get a bigger block of land than they ever will in Melbourne. and TBH the commute is only a little extra than most people do (as i previously said, i was 25km out of town pre-covid and it was a 55-65m drive)

people choose pakenham, officer, and drouin for lifestyle as much as price, because the idea of a first homebuyer buying a big block house within 30km of the cbd is now never happening (ffs it wasnt happening outside the west when my parents bought in the 70's)
 

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ffs...

what you are suggesting has been tried by both liberal and labor govts. its never worked. dandenong never became melbournes second cbd. box hill isnt now. for sydney, parra is only marginally more successful, but marginally.

you need to ask yourself why a company bases itself where it does (and we are talking strictling office based work here)

1) convenient for staff to get to
I have worked in places where they were planning to relocate their Melbourne office from SE Melbourne to Laverton. It didnt happen. The costs made sense, the logistics made sense, but over half the staff threated to quit when they heard about it. Same happened when the TAC relocated to Geelong.

You can move the NAB to Bendigo, but how many workers will follow?

2) cost
tick

3) proximity to business
many orgs locate in the CBD because they have to, its where their customers are. law firms, consultancy groups, and their like need to stay in the CBD because thats where all their clients are. now you may say "thats fine, get the back office/admin staff out". Thats already been done. Many CBD firms have a shadow office in Mulgrave, Box Hill, Burwood, etc. these locations are chosen because the rent is cheap and its close to their labour pool.

4) dick factor
i kid you not, but an amazing number of places are selected because thats where the CEO/owner wants to work. people like this want to show off how successful they are, and you dont do that in Bendigo



want a case study on this? ask why Target shut down its HQ in Geelong and moved it down the road to Melbournes west. ask why sunrice is officially based in country NSW, but all senior staff are in sydney. why Saputo despite being a manufacturing icon in rural victoria, have their HQ at Freshwater
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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So modern Australia which has had a policy of immigration for the last 70 years should abolish that, so that you can buy a house .
Is this really what I'm reading?


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I have a house so doesnt help me. But cutting immigration to sensible levels would help with house prices, the environment, the growing congestion in cities etc. Just because immigration has been beneficial in the past doesnt mean high immigration levels are good now.

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I have a house so doesnt help me. But cutting immigration to sensible levels would help with house prices, the environment, the growing congestion in cities etc. Just because immigration has been beneficial in the past doesnt mean high immigration levels are good now.

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killing immigration will have serious economic consequences. its whats kept us out of recession until now
 
Of course there's issues with it. It's a massive shift in thinking. But what we're doing currently is not sustainable.

Companies sign up knowing its free rent for a fixed term only. Once a city is established the free market will drive rents as it does currently.

Low cost accommodation for the poor? Where are thye going to build that? There's no space inner city, so it's going to need to be a ghetto out near Drouin where there's land but no jobs.

It's insane that 40% of our population lives in 2 cities in a country this big.

this is why I suggested Government provide significant tax incentives for people to move away from Major cities.
 

Royal Flush

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2008
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I have a house so doesnt help me. But cutting immigration to sensible levels would help with house prices, the environment, the growing congestion in cities etc. Just because immigration has been beneficial in the past doesnt mean high immigration levels are good now.

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How will it help the environment? These people still exist on the planet.
The reason why Australia has become so prosperous and will continue so, is because there is a queue of hundreds of thousands of families all around the world whose ultimate prefered destination is Australia.
We let in 150-180k of these people, who sell up in their country of origin and bring their prosperity here.
We are in a fortunate position , because our criteria for selection is high.
Yes the downside is an impact and demand for housing. But what everbody must realise, is the quality of life we have as a result means we are all better off.
Plus the humanitarian aspect and global responsibility we have to immigrants who are fleeing poverty and war.
(give me a Bahn mi over a sausage roll with tomato sauce any day of the week)

do you see what im getting at? Its very self centred and selfish to want otherwise, for the sake of affrodablity within a 15km arch of the CBD.
 
this is why I suggested Government provide significant tax incentives for people to move away from Major cities.

politically that cannot be done

regardless of tax rate, you only move somewhere if you are likely to get work. That means its WFH peeps mainly taking up the offer, and these are peeps on decent incomes (usually). Its an upper class tax cut by default

intent makes sense, but it needs to get through parliament
 
politically that cannot be done

regardless of tax rate, you only move somewhere if you are likely to get work. That means its WFH peeps mainly taking up the offer, and these are peeps on decent incomes (usually). Its an upper class tax cut by default

intent makes sense, but it needs to get through parliament

of course it needs to get through parliament?

but it can be done - obviously you limit the tax brackets it applies too. But if it means more people move out of major cities I think its a good thing. Where people live industry follows.
 

Royal Flush

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 14, 2008
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Say they remove the ability to buy more than 1 investment property and negative gearing as per some people's ideas on here, how much do you think a house you cant currently afford in say, Ivanhoe or Brunswick or wherever etc wil be available for in say 5 or 10 years time? more or less than now?
They wont tell you, they wont say, because they dont know or if they do some basic research will learn it undermines their whole premise.
Because those buzz terms, are Meme politics for the dummies.
 
of course it needs to get through parliament?

but it can be done - obviously you limit the tax brackets it applies too. But if it means more people move out of major cities I think its a good thing. Where people live industry follows.

if you limit it to low income earners, you kill the pool of people who this would apply for.

short term stuff like this wont change migration patterns. you would need to do something extreme (and expensive).

This is not my plan (2 mins of thought just to get an example), but you need a permanent non-discriminatory approach to this that caters to both the labour resource and business

1) waive all payroll taxes for firms based more than 100km outside Melbourne and Sydney CBD

2) waive stamp duty and land taxes on all residential housing blocks under 1000sqm outside greater sydney and melbourne

3) increase GST by applying it on all goods and services

4) put a legislated planning ban on expansion of greater sydney and melbourne beyond current boundaries



and if you're doing all of this:

5) high speed rail link from brisbane to melbourne (via newcastle, sydney, canberra, wodonga)
 
if you limit it to low income earners, you kill the pool of people who this would apply for.

short term stuff like this wont change migration patterns. you would need to do something extreme (and expensive).

This is not my plan (2 mins of thought just to get an example), but you need a permanent non-discriminatory approach to this that caters to both the labour resource and business

1) waive all payroll taxes for firms based more than 100km outside Melbourne and Sydney CBD

2) waive stamp duty and land taxes on all residential housing blocks under 1000sqm outside greater sydney and melbourne

3) increase GST to 10% and apply it on all goods and services

4) put a legislated planning ban on expansion of greater sydney and melbourne beyond current boundaries

these are pretty decent ideas. I still think investors need more limitation. Like what they are doing in New Zealand atm.
 

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