Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[Suspense]

Having Kids is a choice. If you choose to do it than you cannot turn around in the same breath and sook about housing prices. Everyone knows having kids is just about the most expensive thing you can do, outside of buying a house. Having kids is not an excuse to not being able to save for a house deposit.

If you want to own a house and you cant afford kids then don't have them.

Me and my wife deliberately waited until after we bought a house before we had our daughter, so we cam maximize our savings for a deposit. that's a choice we made.

Yes, you are right. There is absolutely no biological, societal or familial pressure on young adults to have children in their 20s and early 30s.

This has nothing to do with "sooking" (I have my own home), I just don't think it is an ideal situation that young families should need to choose between starting a family at the optimum age biologically and saving for a house deposit.

I also don't think that is ideal that those earning less than the median wage, even if they budget, should be locked out of homeownership.

 

[FRUMPY]

Yes, you are right. There is absolutely no biological, societal or familial pressure on young adults to have children in their 20s and early 30s.

This has nothing to do with "sooking" (I have my own home), I just don't think it is an ideal situation that young families should need to choose between starting a family at the optimum age biologically and saving for a house deposit.

I also don't think that is ideal that those earning less than the median wage, even if they budget, should be locked out of homeownership.

They're not but they will find it hard to buy a house in certain areas and with all their wants/needs.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Yes, you are right. There is absolutely no biological, societal or familial pressure on young adults to have children in their 20s and early 30s.

This has nothing to do with "sooking" (I have my own home), I just don't think it is an ideal situation that young families should need to choose between starting a family at the optimum age biologically and saving for a house deposit.

I also don't think that is ideal that those earning less than the median wage, even if they budget, should be locked out of homeownership.

I am totally in agreeance that the Income to Housing price is beyond sustainable and something needs to be done to minimize it or even bring it back to a more appropriate level, however in saying this regardless people still need to sacrifice in order to get ahead.

Having kids, Going on Holidays, Driving new Cars, Partying. Eat Out etc is all stuff that is a choice, it is not a requirement. If people are whining (not saying you) they cant save a deposit and still any of these things than they are not living within their means.

 

[Royal Flush]

well I cant speak for everyone but our household income is 300K plus (if we hit our bonuses etc) and we certainly care about 100,000 lol

I meant individual income. combined household of 200k isnt that abnormal.

Yes, 99% would care about a $100k cash.

we are talking about a property, 85% financed by a bank.

 

[HirdyLannister]

well I cant speak for everyone but our household income is 300K plus (if we hit our bonuses etc) and we certainly care about 100,000 lol

If your household is 300k you would be in the top 5% earners easily.

109k for a single wage is considered top 10% of earners.

Our household is around 200k combined and we have 3 properties, I'm 33 girlfriend is 31 and no kids.
We travelled alot but sacrificed other things, rarely eat out and make everything at home.
Will look at kids Soonish but agree it's a choice and people shouldn't complain after having them.

 

[Suspense]

I am totally in agreeance that the Income to Housing price is beyond sustainable and something needs to be done to minimize it or even bring it back to a more appropriate level, however in saying this regardless people still need to sacrifice in order to get ahead.

Having kids, Going on Holidays, Driving new Cars, Partying. Eat Out etc is all stuff that is a choice, it is not a requirement. If people are whining (not saying you) they cant save a deposit and still any of these things than they are not living within their means.

Sure, some sacrifice is necessary - anyone living the YOLO lifestyle, pissing up their paycheck week to week or buying a new Maloo ute every year probably isn't going to get much sympathy.

Even without kids, 40% saving rate of median household income of $88,533 is $35k. As I said, over five/six years it's doable but challenging - and more challenging for those beneath the median.

Tell that to anyone older than 45 and they will regale you with tales of the two years they spent "budgeting" while they paid off their $30k home.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I am totally in agreeance that the Income to Housing price is beyond sustainable and something needs to be done to minimize it or even bring it back to a more appropriate level, however in saying this regardless people still need to sacrifice in order to get ahead.

Having kids, Going on Holidays, Driving new Cars, Partying. Eat Out etc is all stuff that is a choice, it is not a requirement. If people are whining (not saying you) they cant save a deposit and still any of these things than they are not living within their means.

Millennials are having kids later than any other generation, own fewer cars than the previous two generations and I'd love to see the stats on "partying" and "eating out" because people are carrying on in this thread like millennials invented the concept of the music festival, the cafe and having alcohol on tap. The only thing millennials are doing more than their predecessors is going overseas, mostly because overseas travel became much cheaper and easier about 15 years ago. Did Gen Xers not take holidays or something?

In fact, No stats on spending habits that I've seen show that Gen Y or Z are any more frivolous on average than what the Boomers and Gen X were, would love to see some to the contrary. Seems like saying people aren't living within their means is a total cop out just to deflect.

 

[Golden_6]

Then they are doing something wrong. We saved just over 50k a year between us for 5 years to get our deposit, if you average it out. We were 23 when we started saving. We obviously started out on less money after Graduating Uni but we steadily increased.

The Average Income in Australia is 88k. As a couple that's circa 180K.

Saving 50k of this is easily achievable. Yes you need need to make sacrifices along the way but really, its not that hard.

How many people can save $500 a week? The answer is barely any unless you are living at home with barely any expenses. If you are saving $1,000 a week as a couple and live out of home, then lucky you because you’re one of the lucky ones that have high paying jobs and housing isn’t an issue to you.

Quoting the average Australian wage is pointless given first home buyers are at the beginning of their career and as a generalisation are no where near that amount of income.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Sure, some sacrifice is necessary - anyone living the YOLO lifestyle, pissing up their paycheck week to week or buying a new Maloo ute every year probably isn't going to get much sympathy.

Even without kids, 40% saving rate of median household income of $88,533 is $35k. As I said, over five/six years it's doable but challenging - and more challenging for those beneath the median.

Tell that to anyone older than 45 and they will regale you with tales of the two years they spent "budgeting" while they paid off their $30k home.

Schroedinger's Boomer: Will happily tell you how they and the lads went to the pub every night to get sloshed but reckons that younger generations don't know how to save their money.

 

[HirdyLannister]

Millennials are having kids later than any other generation, own fewer cars than the previous two generations and I'd love to see the stats on "partying" and "eating out" because people are carrying on in this thread like millennials invented the concept of the music festival, the cafe and having alcohol on tap. The only thing millennials are doing more than their predecessors is going overseas, mostly because overseas travel became much cheaper and easier about 15 years ago. Did Gen Xers not take holidays or something?

In fact, No stats on spending habits that I've seen show that Gen Y or Z are any more frivolous on average than what the Boomers and Gen X were, would love to see some to the contrary. Seems like saying people aren't living within their means is a total cop out just to deflect.

Regards to vehicles, I always see P players running around in brand new Ford rangers, hilux, turbo hatches you know something isn't right.
When was the last time you seen a P plate driver in an older standard car. I'm only 33, got my licence in 2006 and my first car was made in 1991. A guy at work went halfs in a 2018 Subaru for their daughter. Was like 12k each put in, why does a 18 year old need a 24k vehicle?

 

[Golden_6]

Regards to vehicles, I always see P players running around in brand new Ford rangers, hilux, turbo hatches you know something isn't right.
When was the last time you seen a P plate driver in an older standard car. I'm only 33, got my licence in 2006 and my first car was made in 1991. A guy at work went halfs in a 2018 Subaru for their daughter. Was like 12k each put in, why does a 18 year old need a 24k vehicle?

Purely anecdotal but not the case in my friendship circle. We all started with early 2000’s cars (licenses in 2012). My first car was a 2001 Ford AU which cost $3.5k and 8 years later it’s still going strong.

 

[Kram]

Late 90s on P plates knew 3 blokes that worked for their family business bought brand new VT Commodores.

Everyone else only had very ordinary old cars.

 

[HirdyLannister]

Purely anecdotal but not the case in my friendship circle. We all started with early 2000’s cars (licenses in 2012). My first car was a 2001 Ford AU which cost $3.5k and 8 years later it’s still going strong.

AU beast of a vehicle, ugly as sin but will last forever.

 

[Cuzz09]

Im on like 60 something and GF is 3 days a week like lucky to make $20k with a disability.

My mind explodes at the thought of earning $300k!

We get by on our pay with mortgage etc but I know if I was on 5x more Id have 5x more that lifestyle

Im not having a go at all... Good on everyone that earns big money.

$300k

 

[Brad Goodman]

If your household is 300k you would be in the top 5% earners easily.

Pretty much.

 

[Pie eyed]

I still don't understand why people use agents.

Really?
You have not thought about that at all have you?

 

[Cuzz09]

Pretty much.

View attachment 1096881

$6k a fortnight.. Live like a KIIIING

 

[yodellinhank]

Schroedinger's Boomer: Will happily tell you how they and the lads went to the pub every night to get sloshed but reckons that younger generations don't know how to save their money.

It was far, far cheaper to get sloshed every night. People couldn't afford not to.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

This is just in my ignorant opinion, but i also think people need to calm the farm over the current "boom" in prices

covid last year had two effects on sales (esp in victoria):

- buyers stopped buying. everyone wanted discounts, and im talking massive discounts. We had people offering us 20% below advertised prior to auction. It was the first time since the GFC i started seeing a lot of no bid auctions, and a lot of sales switched to expression of interest because of this. The whole "we cant hold on the street auctions" was a smokescreen (and one we used to cancel our auction). Truth was buyers had zero interest in most properties unless they got a bargain.

the exception was the picture postcard places. best house on best street, people paid premiums. everything else was no go.

- sellers stopped selling. we had been looking for our new place since 2019 AND sold/tried to sell a number of places over 2019/20 (in preparation of our buy). here's how we found stuff:

* 2019 - we were looking to buy a "good" property, but premiums were tough. we came close a couple of times, but competition was tough (combo of chinese money and people looking to upsize like us). Stock was plentiful though. We spent most weekends looking at places, and would do 3-5 inspections on most saturdays.

* 2020 - chinese money started bugging out in March. We had two sales fall over because chinese buyers changed their mind (one walked from the deposit!). In June/july, things started looking positive, but then ground to a halt. We took all our places off the market and rented them out. For our buy, stock plummeted. Even though we were looking every weekend, we were seeing no new stock and properties being removed from sale. The place we bought was one taken off the market after failing at auction, when the agent contacted us 2 months later. We came close on 4 other properties, but everyone was still holding out for premiums - people chose to remove from market if they didnt get the price they wanted.


I say all of this because the buyers like me (if i hadnt found my new place) for 2020 were still in the market. There is a lot of pent up demand of people who were planning to buy but couldnt. Likewise the people who pulled their properties in 2020 still want to sell. What 2021 is when the dam breaks. Its a big boom in the pent up demand, and stock is keeping pace with it to keep the prices up. at some stage the equilibrium will return, and the lag will be all caught up.

then you have the chaos ball - China. Chinese buyers were a big part of the market. the channel partner agents however are still silent (we have heard nothing this year, when my wife was being rung by them constantly in 2019). easy way to explain the channel partners is they are an agent who promotes your property to a network of hundreds of agents in china, who often would arrange sales without physical inspection (just online). With the travel bans and the trade war, no chinese students need their rich parents to by them a house, and no chinese families are relocating to australia. if this tap is turned back on, the boom wont maintain, but it will be steady. if this tap isnt, the current demand can only last so long before it walks away

 

[Deliverance]

Really?
You have not thought about that at all have you?

Why?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The boom has been caused by low interest rates and government incentives designed to bring buyers into the market to rescue the economy.

Normally you would have sellers needing to sell if the economy was bad, but due to overgenerous government support and banks giving mortgage holidays, you have minimal sellers needing to sell. The only sellers are the ones who want to sell, and with pundits suggesting higher prices in the future, they are holding out for a higher price.

You have scarce supply and buyers for the next five years all trying to buy now, prices are bid up. So this boom is purely manufactured on both the demand and supply side. It is just governments and central banks again using younger generations as fodder to "rescue" an economy which was already stuffed before COVID.

You need to get out. I'm at an auction literally now, and the auctioneer is begging for $1000 bids.

This isn't a boom, it's a temporary bubble for select properties

 

[Scotland]

Wow what a s*** society we are creating when you need to decide between a house and a kid. There are going to be a lot of people in their 40's trying for kids and realising that the body is created for kids in your early 20's. Seeing some people trying for IVF with diminishing chances each time is horrible.

I am sure when they sit alone in their house and age alone, some would change it all in a heart beat.

Having a kid and owning a house are both choices. They are both expensive and require sacrifice, prioritisation etc.

 

[FRUMPY]

Wow what a s*** society we are creating when you need to decide between a house and a kid. There are going to be a lot of people in their 40's trying for kids and realising that the body is created for kids in your early 20's. Seeing some people trying for IVF with diminishing chances each time is horrible.

I am sure when they sit alone in their house and age alone, some would change it all in a heart beat.

It's not a choice between either but it needs planning, dumb to say otherwise.

Sent from my CPH2005 using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

11 days into April according to Corelogic:

Syd +0.7%
Melb +0.3%
Bris +0.6%
Ade +0.5%
Per +0.3%

So it looks like the rate of growth is decreasing.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

11 days into April according to Corelogic:

Syd +0.7%
Melb +0.3%
Bris +0.6%
Ade +0.5%
Per +0.3%

So it looks like the rate of growth is decreasing.

I wonder what these numbers actually mean?

Its it ALL property?