Aussies Australian Prospects for London 2012

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It has been a pretty exciting week for the swimmers so far. Our 4*100 metre freestyle teams will have a good crack, great to see Rice win with the injuries she has had and James Magnussen what a beast. Cannot wait to see him race in London. Hope he can deliver on the biggest stage.
 

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http://www.theage.com.au/sport/olym...-to-be-biggest-since-2000-20120612-2089m.html
AUSTRALIA will send its second-biggest athletics team to an Olympics, with more than 50 athletes to be selected for London when the team is announced, as soon as today.
The Australian team will be bigger than Atlanta and the biggest since Sydney, and is boosted by the fact there will be three relay teams, a full complement of marathon runners and three discus throwers.
Click to expand...
http://www.theage.com.au/sport/olym...-to-be-biggest-since-2000-20120612-2089m.html
 
News Ltd papers run a virtual medals table. It's provided by Netherlands based company Infostrada Sports who update it at the start of each month based on world championships, world cup meetings, various Olympic trials, and other results from around the world.

You can view by each one of the 302 events. The prediction is only 1 swimming gold medal Belinda Hocking in the 200m Backstroke. The US swimming Olympic trials are on at the moment so there might be some change there. The US athletics Olympic trials are also on so there could be a few other prediction adjustments. Click on View by Event to go thru events.

Current top table is

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/medal-table

Code: 
Country...... RK G S B Tot Prev Rk
 
United States 1 41 20 27 88 1
China........ 2 34 35 25 94 2
Russia....... 3 21 27 33 81 3
Germany...... 4 20 20 20 60 4
Great Britain 5 17 27 19 63 5
France....... 6 11 13 13 37 11
Australia.... 7 10 12 18 40 6
Italy........ 8 10 10 13 33 8
Korea........ 9 10 3 14 27 10
Japan........ 10 9 15 11 35 7
Kenya........ 11 9 5 5 19 9
Brazil....... 12 7 5 5 17 12
--------------------

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/medal-table

Gold Predictions

Athletics...... 1 Pearson 100m hurdles
Hockey........ 1 Mens team
Cycling Track 3 Meares in Kerin, Mens Team Pursuit and Womens Team Sprint
Gymnastics... 1 Women's FloorExercise Lauren Mitchell
Sailing.......... 3 Men's 470, Men's 49er, Men's laser
Swimming...... 1 Hocking 200m bokeackstroke

Sports Illustrated will be making their predictions around mid July and will have it on line

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/olympics/?eref=sinav
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
News Ltd papers run a virtual medals table. It's provided by Netherlands based company Infostrada Sports who update it at the start of each month based on world championships, world cup meetings, various Olympic trials, and other results from around the world.

You can view by each one of the 302 events. The prediction is only 1 swimming gold medal Belinda Hocking in the 200m Backstroke. The US swimming Olympic trials are on at the moment so there might be some change there. The US athletics Olympic trials are also on so there could be a few other prediction adjustments. Click on View by Event to go thru events.

Current top table is

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/medal-table

Code: 
Country...... RK G S B Tot Prev Rk
 
United States 1 41 20 27 88 1
China........ 2 34 35 25 94 2
Russia....... 3 21 27 33 81 3
Germany...... 4 20 20 20 60 4
Great Britain 5 17 27 19 63 5
France....... 6 11 13 13 37 11
Australia.... 7 10 12 18 40 6
Italy........ 8 10 10 13 33 8
Korea........ 9 10 3 14 27 10
Japan........ 10 9 15 11 35 7
Kenya........ 11 9 5 5 19 9
Brazil....... 12 7 5 5 17 12
--------------------

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/medal-table

Gold Predictions

Athletics...... 1 Pearson 100m hurdles
Hockey........ 1 Mens team
Cycling Track 3 Meares in Kerin, Mens Team Pursuit and Womens Team Sprint
Gymnastics... 1 Women's FloorExercise Lauren Mitchell
Sailing.......... 3 Men's 470, Men's 49er, Men's laser
Swimming...... 1 Hocking 200m bokeackstroke

Sports Illustrated will be making their predictions around mid July and will have it on line

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/olympics/?eref=sinav
Click to expand...
What is this based on?! First event I check is the 100 free:

Rank Country Name Prev. Rank
1 Canada Brent Hayden 1
2 France Alain Bernard 4
3 Australia James Magnussen 2
4 Brazil Cesar Cielo 3
5 France William Meynard 5
6 Italy Filippo Magnini 10
7 United States Nathan Adrian 6
8 Australia Eamon Sullivan 7
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Thought that was pretty odd, so checked FINA's quickest times per athlete this year:

100 METRES FREESTYLE MALE LC
Rank Time Name Team Qualifies as Meet Name Meet City Meet Country Date
1 47.10 Magnussen, James AUS OQT 2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming Adelaide AUS 15/03/2012
2 47.63 Roberts, James AUS OQT 2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming Adelaide AUS 15/03/2012
3 48.02 Agnel, Yannick FRA OQT Elite French Championships Dunkerke FRA 18/03/2012
4 48.21 Lobintsev, Nikita RUS Russian National Swimming 17/04/2012
Championships
OQT Moscow RUS
5 48.27 Izotov, Danila RUS Russian National Swimming 17/04/2012
Championships
OQT Moscow RUS
6 48.28 Cielo Filho, Cesar BRA OQT Maria Lenk Trophy Rio de Janeiro BRA 24/04/2012
7 48.29 Grechin, Andrey RUS Russian National Swimming 17/04/2012
Championships
OQT Moscow RUS
8 48.32 Targett, Matt AUS OQT 2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming Adelaide AUS 15/03/2012
9 48.38 Gilot, Fabien FRA OQT Elite French Championships Dunkerke FRA 18/03/2012
10 48.48 Leveaux, Amaury FRA OQT Elite French Championships Dunkerke FRA 18/03/2012
11 48.49 Phelps, Michael USA OQT 2012 Ohio State Grand Prix Columbus USA 09/03/2012
12 48.50 Adrian, Nathan USA OQT 2012 US Santa Clara International Santa Clara USA 31/05/2012
13 48.53 Hayden, Brent CAN 2012 Canadian Olympic and 27/03/2012
Paralympic Trials
OQT Montreal CAN
13 48.53 Sullivan, Eamon AUS OQT 2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming Adelaide AUS 15/03/2012
Click to expand...
 
Have the Canadian trials been run lately? No he is 13th in the table posted above. Only thing I can think of is that News Ltd's has stopped buying the info off Infostrada Sports and haven't updated it in 2012. I saw it a few times in 2011 and the medals totals changed a few times. Maybe News stopped paying for the service. Or they are wrong! But here is what they say about how they work out their virtual medal table.

http://www.infostradasports.com/asp/infostradasports.asp?page=analytics_virtualmedaltable#

Virtual Medal Table

Using our extensive results database, Infostrada Sports can offer a form guide of potential medal winners at the 2012 summergames. This is based on a mathematical model taking account of all major results from the 2008 summergames onwards and is presented in the form of a medal table. Each medal is associated with an NOC and an athlete or athletes.

The model used takes account of the results, the competition and includes a time factor to weigh more recent results as more important than those achieved some time ago. The competition is also weighted so that, for example, World Championship and Olympic Games results are more important in the calculation than results from World Cup events.
  • Monthly content for editorial and website use
  • An accessible form guide to all Olympic participants
  • Dynamic content which changes every month
  • The possibility of deeper analysis from our unrivalled database of sports results
A Virtual Medal Table for the Winter Games in 2014 will be released later this year.
For more information on the virtual medal table please contact our team
Click to expand...


http://www.infostradasports.com/asp/infostradasports.asp?page=analytics_virtualmedaltable#
 

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Bizarre.

Won't even bother looking at the rest if the quickest swimmer ever in textile suits (and the third fastest ever), the fastest swimmer by over half a second in 2012 (ahead of countryman James Roberts in second) and reigning world champion is not rated the favourite in the event.
 
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/us-swim-team-sends-warning-a-month-out-from-london-games/story-fn9dheyx-1226415679432
THE message from the US swim team to Australia and the rest of the world could not be any clearer: Catch us if you can.​
The world's most dominant swim team completed a remarkable Olympic trials yesterday with an astonishing 12 swimmers ranked No.1 out of 26 individual events going into the London Games in less than a month.

In comparison Australia's once mighty outfit are languishing in fifth place on a projected medal table, with just two gold medals, one silver and two bronze medals for individual events based upon times swum in 2012.​
PROJECTED OLYMPIC SWIM MEDAL TABLE
:​
1. USA: 12 gold - 8 silver - 8 bronze​
2. Japan: 4 gold - 4 silver - 3 bronze​
3. China: 2 gold - 2 silver - 2 bronze​
4. France: 2 gold - 2 silver - 1 bronze​
5. Australia: 2 gold - 1 silver - 2 bronze​
6. Netherlands: 2 gold - 0 silver - 1 bronze​
7. Great Britain: 1 gold - 3 silver - 2 bronze​
8. Brazil: 1 gold - 0 silver - 1 bronze​
(Note: Based on 2012 times. Does not include relays)​

Australia's predicted medals:​
Gold: James Magnussen (100m freestyle), Stephanie Rice (200m medley)​
Silver: James Roberts (100m freestyle)​
Bronze: Belinda Hocking (200m backstroke), Nick D'Arcy (200m butterfly)​

Fourths: Chris Wright (100m butterfly), Bronte Barratt (200m freestyle), Kylie Palmer (400m freestyle), Leiston Pickett (100m breaststroke), Alicia Coutts (200m medley), Stephanie Rice (400m medley).​
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http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/london-olympics/us-swim-team-sends-warning-a-month-out-from-london-games/story-fn9dheyx-1226415679432
I don't think this is the be-all and end-all as we had our trials three months back and the US has theirs this week, but an interesting comparison. Note that no relay medals have been allocated in this tally.
 
That doesn't include the relays.

We have 4 decent chances in them.

The mens 4x 100m Free and Women's 4 x 200m Free the Oz top 4 swimmers have better times than the 4 top US swimmers.

The womens 4 x 100m Free is marginally better than the US based on the top 4 times of the best 4 swimmers of both squads. The Netherlands are a big chance.

The womens 4 x 100m Medley is just over a second behind the US based on the best times of the 4 different leg swimmers in both squads.

The men will do well if they get bronze in both the 4 x 200m Free and 4 x 100m Medley,
 
http://www.theage.com.au/olympics/news-london-2012/games-gold-is-all-in-the-data-20120712-21yxe.html
AUSTRALIA will rank fifth in the world at the London Olympics - winning 15 gold medals and 46 in total - but will be thrashed in the gold rush by the British, a team of economists has predicted.
The economists, from global investment bank Goldman Sachs, predict Britain - benefiting from the ''host effect'' - will win twice as much gold as Australia, and come third behind the United States and China.
The report, drawing on past statistical data, found that host nations typically win 54 per cent more medals than they otherwise might.
The upshot, the economists say, is that Britain will win 30 gold and 65 medals in total - a 18 more medals than it won in Beijing in 2008. China, meanwhile, will have ex-host hangover, winning 33 gold medals versus 50 when it hosted.
The economists forecast that the US will again take away the lion's share of medals, with 37 gold and 108 in total. They predict that the top 10 ranks will include five G7 countries (the US, Britain, France, Germany and Italy), two emerging economies (China and Russia) and Australia and Ukraine. ''Based on our analysis, these 10 countries will likely capture more than half of all medals,'' their report says.
Click to expand...
http://www.theage.com.au/olympics/news-london-2012/games-gold-is-all-in-the-data-20120712-21yxe.html

http://www.theage.com.au/olympics/news-london-2012/we-can-win-40-medals-coates-20120713-220rm.html
Australian Olympic Committee chief John Coates remains optimistic that Australia can take home a swag of medals totalling in the "low 40s" at the upcoming London Games, though one-time running great Herb Elliott says he believes it will be against "pretty strong odds".
The pair were speaking today at an anniversary lunch for the Australian Olympic team of 1952, which calls itself the "Kapyla Club" after the suburb in Helsinki where the team was quartered during the 1952 Games held in Finland.
Also present was legendary runner Marjorie Jackson-Nelson, who as Marj Jackson became known as the "Lithgow Streak" when she became the first Australian woman to win gold on the track at Helsinki.
"I think the signs are there that we could get into the low 40s in our medals and that will be good enough for, if not fifth, then sixth or something like that," Coates told the Herald today.
Click to expand...
http://www.theage.com.au/olympics/news-london-2012/we-can-win-40-medals-coates-20120713-220rm.html
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Sports Illustrated's next edition on 16th should be their medal prediction edition. If its available on line will post their precistions here.
Click to expand...
Can't be worse than the Herald Sun's giving the 100 free to Hayden.
 
You gotta blame Infostrada sports group for that. Although I wonder if the News Ltd group stopped paying them for the info some time last year and its never been updated.
 
As for Gold Medal Projections.I tip 16 Gold.

Athletics-2(Pearson and Watt enter London As favourites)
Basketball-1(womens time has come with Liz Cambage being the star)
Cycling-Track-3 (Around 6 hot chances for Gold,Anna Meares and the Pursuit team to lead the way)
Cycling-BMX-1 (We have the current male and female World Champion.We should pick up 1)
Equestrian-1 ( Word is the 3day eventing team is our strongest ever.We always do well here)
Gymnastics-1 (Lauren Mitchell is current WC.She should win at least 1 apparatus,probably floor)
Hockey-1 (The Men enter as hot favourites)
Rowing-2 ( Up to 6 Gold medal chances,most likely Women Doubles Skulls and Mens Coxless Fours)
Sailing -2 (No bigger Gold medal Favourite than Tom Slingsby in Lase.Also hot chances in Mens 470 and 49er)
Swimming-2 (Probably our weakest swim team since 1996,although we have reaistic chances in around 8 events.Magnussen will go into the 100 free as probaly the hottest favourite in 50 years. He will also lead a very strong relay).Steph Rice enters her events as World No 1, as well as our relay chances,especially Womens 200m x 4 free)

= 16 Gold
 
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