Aussies Australian Prospects for London 2012

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dantm said:
As for Gold Medal Projections.I tip 16 Gold.

Basketball-1(womens time has come with Liz Cambage being the star)
Gymnastics-1 (Lauren Mitchell is current WC.She should win at least 1 apparatus,probably floor)


= 16 Gold
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Without Penny Taylor it is going to be very tough.

And if we get a Gymnastics gold medal at an Olympics that would be a significant result.

Like your predictions though.
 
dantm said:
Gymnastics-1 (Lauren Mitchell is current WC.She should win at least 1 apparatus,probably floor)
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Correction - she WAS the WC in 2010 - in 2011 she didn't qualify for a single individual final. She was put into the Floor final along with 2 other reserves because of injuries and finished 5th.

The fact is Gymnastics is a bit of a lottery - minor slip on the day - bang goes 10 years of work. Mitchell has proved she has the talent to win on her day - along with about 20-30 others (at least).
 
^^^ 16 seems high but not outrageous. I reckon we probably will win 4 in swimming. Cycling - track is the big one that we could soar and get 5 or 6 or none depending how well the Brits ride at home. The road and time trial will be interesting given how well team Sky is doing and propped up by a couple of Aussies doing the grunt work for Wiggins.

Pearson and Watts are favourites but watching the Crystal Palace meet of Eurosports over the weekend says they aren't ragging favourites. Watt should be a medalist but it will be close. Not sure if the cold wet weather stuffed up Pearson, or if it was the loss she had to have but she wasn't as smooth as other runs this year. Supposedly she strained her back in the heat run.
 

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We'd be doing well if we landed with 16.

Think Sally will be okay. And hoping for a miraculous comeback from Hooker. Be a damn good story if it happened.
 
My mistake in regards to Mitchell.She wasnt 100% last year and was at one stage not going to even complete.There is no doubt a fully fit Lauren Mitchell will be one of the favourites.Lets hope so anyway.
Sally Pearson should be OK.She was not at her best last night.It was pouring rain and she had an earlier fall in practice,that must of shook her up.It was not as though last nights winner came out and blasted a 2012 WB.It was only a 12.57 with Sally at 12.59.Sally last run a 12.40,and hadnt been beaten in 30 odd outings.Pearson at her best will not be beaten.
My fear for her is the 100m Hurdle Olympic curse.Look at Gail Devers in 1992 or Lolo Jones in 2008 and you will understand what I mean.
 
dantm said:
My fear for her is the 100m Hurdle Olympic curse.Look at Gail Devers in 1992 or Lolo Jones in 2008 and you will understand what I mean.
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Hurdles is certainly one of those events where only a tiny mistake can cost you the entire race. You only need to clip one hurdle and all your hard work goes out the window.
 
pepsi said:
Hurdles is certainly one of those events where only a tiny mistake can cost you the entire race. You only need to clip one hurdle and all your hard work goes out the window.
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I always compare hurdles with the jumps or throws - you get 6 jumps and only count the best. In Hurdles, you have to jump 10 flights, and they all count - and if you stuff one up big time, it doesn't matter what you do on the rest - you can wreck your whole race in a split second. Doesn't matter if your other 9 were technically the best of anyone in the race.

And the mistake is so small - I have watched Pearson's race and I can't work out exactly why she went wrong. She had a poor (relatively for her) landing after the 8th hurdle and lost some momentum, and that was it. Took her from level pegging to down by 2/100ths by the finish. But why she had the poor landing - can't tell without super slo-mo (which hopefully the coach has, but we don't see).

It's a tough event. I still think Pearson is technically the best hurdler out there (in the girls, that is - Lui Zhang is just picture perfect). All hurdlers crash - all make mistakes. Pearson seems to be the most consistent - hopefully she's had her glitch.
 
Track and Field News had tipped Oz to win 3 gold medals and no minor medals in Athletics.

Pearson, Watt and Talent in the 50km walk.

They have tipped
USA 9-12-9 =30
Jam 3-5-4 =12 Blake to beat Bolt in the 100m but Bolt to win in the 200m
Ken 9-4-4 =17
Eth 1-5-1 =7
GBR 2-2-2 =6
RUS 6-5-12 =23
AUS 3-0-0 =3
GER 3-3-1 =7
CZE 2-0-0 = 2
As the countries to win more than one gold or 3 or more medals. They have predicted 36 nations will win medals and 17 to win gold.

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/special-article-right-ad-only/1189

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/special-article-right-ad-only/1191
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Track and Field News had tipped Oz to win 3 gold medals and no minor medals in Athletics.

Pearson, Watt and Talent in the 50km walk.

They have tipped
USA 9-12-9 =30
Jam 3-5-4 =12 Blake to beat Bolt in the 100m but Bolt to win in the 200m
Ken 9-4-4 =17
Eth 1-5-1 =7
GBR 2-2-2 =6
RUS 6-5-12 =23
AUS 3-0-0 =3
GER 3-3-1 =7
CZE 2-0-0 = 2
As the countries to win more than one gold or 3 or more medals. They have predicted 36 nations will win medals and 17 to win gold.

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/special-article-right-ad-only/1189

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/special-article-right-ad-only/1191
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Interesting they pick Tallent for Gold.
I dont think he will be the favourite like Watt and Pearson,but obviously has a great chance,maybe for two medals.
Dani Samuels seems to be back to form.At her best,she will be a great medal chance.

In a way,Australians tradionally perform well in the UK.In many cases,its a home away from home,and I have a sneaking suspicion we will disrupt Team GB party.Cycling and Saling are areas where we could do very well at the expense of the Brits.
In saying that,GB will be a long way ahead of us on the medal table.They should get around 70 medals and around 20 -25 Gold medals.
 
US Sports Illustrated Medal Predictions are now released.

Australia
16 Gold ( 40 overall )

If anyone can find a link that lists all,please post.
 

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Well you will have to wait until Rio or probably 2020 to see the next Aussie 100m champion because Pearson is going to be around for a long time. But it looks like the next Aussie champion will be 19 year old Michelle Jenneke who finished 5th at last weekend’s IAAF World Junior Championships in Barcelona in the 100m hurdle final. At 19 she is about 0:30 seconds slower than Pearson at the same age. But it was her heat run, that she won that she became a hit and her little dance has made her an internet hit and got plenty of coverage on sports programs around the world. Hope she has a good manager to make sure she can make a dollar or two in marketing to help her drive up the rankings.


 
Here is ther remainder
http://www.state-journal.com/ap sports/2012/07/20/london-olympics-medal-projections

Note this is NOT Sport Illustrated picks,but Associated Press' Predictions.

Here is an Australian Summary(Gold Medals only)

Athletics-1
100m Hurdles-W

Cycling-4
Keiren-W
Omnium-M
Team Sprint-W
BMX-M

Hockey-1
Mens

Rowing-1
Double Skulls-M

Sailing-3
Laser-M
49er-M
470-M

Swimming-4
100m Free-M
4x100m Free-M
200IM -W
4x200m Free -W

Triathlon-1
Womens

Total -15 Gold
 
Sports Illustrated is almost identical.
They have predicted 16 Golds.They have added Mens Sprint(Cycling) and Womens Water Polo.
They have excluded the Mens Double Skull(Rowing)


gold-medal-420x0.jpg
 
Something has gone screwy. In that A to J sports link from Sports Illustrated the Track Cycling Mens Team Sprint prediction is listed as

Men's team sprint
Gold: France
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Germany
Women's team sprint
Gold: Australia
Silver: Germany
Bronze: China​
 
Thats correct.
Thats Sports Illustrated link is NOT the actual Sports Illustrated Medal Prediction.

It is the Sport Illustrated News Outlet reporting off the wires on the Medal Predictions done by Associated Press.
 
This is an interesting Top 50 prospects by the SMH. Infortunately you have to flick thru 50 photo's - photo gallery to see who and where they rank the 50.

Australia's top 50 Olympic medal hopes
 
Slax said:
We will make double figures but can't see us winning 16

Athletics-1​
100m Hurdles-W​
​
Cycling-4​
Keiren-W​
Omnium-M​
Team Sprint-W​
BMX-W​
​
Hockey-1​
Mens​
​
Sailing-3​
Laser-M​
49er-M​
470-M​
​
Swimming-4​
100m Free-M​
4x100m Free-M​
4x200m Free -W​
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Pearson won't win. Cycling - win 2 of the above. Hockey - maybe. Sailing - 1 or 2 of the above. Swimming - no golds. That makes 5 or 6. Throw in the inevitable surprise golds that we always get and I reckon about 9, maybe 10. Lots of silver and bronze this time.
 
pepsi said:
Just wondering what makes you so confident in the prediction that Pearson or Magnussen won't win?
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Magnussen is competing in one of the most competitive events of the games. 100 metre free is so hit and miss. The races and times are very close. A bad start or a poor turn and you could end up out wide in the final and receiving the middle lanes wash. We haven't won this event since 1968. The times out of the recent US and Russian trials were very good. There are over 30 guys in the games who can swim under 49sec which is mad. He is a confident guy and he has really put himself out there.

Pearson clearly got the jitters after a mishap two weeks back and lost her first race for awhile. Some of the runners around her with rankings don't have much current diamond league form, which also worries me as they are a little unknown. Again the hurdles is a tricky race. You must get everything right. She knows she is our only chance on the track and will carry that burden. We haven't had a sprinting gold since 1968 either.

Both of them have stated today that they will win. I don't like this. Aussies don't normally talk like that. Who are they trying to convince. Us or themselves? They are the hunted now. Fingers crossed for both of them and I will be cheering as hard as the next man for them, but their events are not like a 400m freestyle or a football or basketball tournament where you have time to recover from a small mistake. Everything must go right exactly for you to win.
 
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