TV Australian Survivor - Part 2

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Filthy Sanchez

Norm Smith Medallist
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Filthy Sanchez's Power Rankings

It's delayed but I'm still keeping on track! My weakest link Casey went home giving me a strong strike rate still. The rankings are starting to take shape and it's interesting to see that cluster of women on the Contenders tribe maintain a firm hold of those top seeds. Will be interesting to see how that plays out post merge.

Movers:

David is the only mover in this episode as he finds another idol. Well gee look at that! This should keep him safe until merge to join up with his Champion comrades.

Sliders:

Harry falls to the lowest position in the game after being forced to use his idol without being able to make a massive shift in the voting alliance. He's still the bigger target on that tribe and seems unlikely to survive much longer.

Daisy and Shaun both take a fall this episode with David finding that idol. One of them should've gone home the ep before so you'd imagine one of them won't make it to merge.

1. John

2. Baden

3. Pia ❤
4. Janine
5. Abbey
6. Ross (+1)
7. Simon (+1)

8. Daisy (-2)
9. David (+5)
10. Luke
11. Shaun (-2)

12. Matt
13. Andy
14. Harry (-3)
 

akkaps

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Luke at 10? He's the best player out there
I agree that Luke is one of the best players, but that doesn’t mean he’s unlikely to be voted out. Also gotta take into account being on the shorter end of the tribe swap.
John doesn’t have the best Unwit game, but it’s his likeabilty that puts him at number 1.
 

Lefthanded

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If the Contenders are smart and actually stay united for just one bloody vote, one of Luke or David are guaranteed to go home. The idol Dave found at that reward is surely their tribe's one designated idol; short of blatant production interference to save Luke, there's not going to be another one at camp.

So it should be a 3-2 split vote which guarantees one of them go home. Same deal at the other tribe -- Harry and Matt are equally screwed. Even if Harry finds another idol, all he can do is save himself and Matt goes home. Their final chance to save themselves was lost when Casey refused to work with them. Harry's plan to play the idol for her and send 3 votes to Abbey was brilliant and would've worked. Alas, Casey is so dumb she never even considered that Harry playing his idol guaranteed her exit (in what universe was this a smarter option than letting Harry playing the idol for her?! How dumb are these people?!)

All that said, there's a high likelihood Andy screws Shaun again and votes with David/Luke. If Shaun has learned anything from watching the show since he was 12, he should realise he either needs to:
a) feed false information to Andy about who is getting 3 votes in the split, on the assumption Andy will tip them off, or
b) vote Andy out, flushing any idols from David/Luke, then throw the following challenge and vote 2-2 against D/L

Andy makes a 3-2 vote split way too dangerous because he has a proven track record of going rogue and voting against the Contenders. Why take the risk?
re bolded - also ONLY if they go to tribal and it's an elimination episode. Lots of IFs. IF David and Luke are smart they apologise to Andy and stroke his ego to have another go at Daisy.
 

Lefthanded

Club Legend
Sep 9, 2013
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Filthy Sanchez's Power Rankings

It's delayed but I'm still keeping on track! My weakest link Casey went home giving me a strong strike rate still. The rankings are starting to take shape and it's interesting to see that cluster of women on the Contenders tribe maintain a firm hold of those top seeds. Will be interesting to see how that plays out post merge.

Movers:

David is the only mover in this episode as he finds another idol. Well gee look at that! This should keep him safe until merge to join up with his Champion comrades.

Sliders:

Harry falls to the lowest position in the game after being forced to use his idol without being able to make a massive shift in the voting alliance. He's still the bigger target on that tribe and seems unlikely to survive much longer.

Daisy and Shaun both take a fall this episode with David finding that idol. One of them should've gone home the ep before so you'd imagine one of them won't make it to merge.

1. John

2. Baden

3. Pia ❤
4. Janine
5. Abbey
6. Ross (+1)
7. Simon (+1)

8. Daisy (-2)
9. David (+5)
10. Luke
11. Shaun (-2)

12. Matt
13. Andy
14. Harry (-3)
With your bottom 4 places occupied by original contenders I think it inconsistent that the top two places are also original contenders. If original contenders don't have the numbers come merge they will get picked off and a champion will win. (With seemingly less solid bond they might even get picked off even if they do have the numbers). I also think Baden might be ahead of John as John is more of a target as a physical threat. That said Baden will probably be rightly perceived as more of a strategic threat than John so can justify either way.
 

squashface

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Really? I hated it, you basically knew the other tribe was going to win the challenge so it takes away some of the drama and it's unfair on the other tribe members that are still trying to win it. They didn't even do a good job of hiding the fact that they were throwing the challenge, hence why Harry was onto them.

I can understand the reasons why they did it but I still don't respect it as a tactic and was hoping it backfired on them with one of them getting voted out.
What I didn’t really get was Harry trying to use that as some sort of revelation in TC. Like everyone in that Tribe knew about it as the 3 ex contenders discussed it on the beach and all of the Champions had a discussion that they needed to throw the challenge so save David/Luke.

Or was it more just letting them know that he knows?
With your bottom 4 places occupied by original contenders I think it inconsistent that the top two places are also original contenders. If original contenders don't have the numbers come merge they will get picked off and a champion will win. (With seemingly less solid bond they might even get picked off even if they do have the numbers). I also think Baden might be ahead of John as John is more of a target as a physical threat. That said Baden will probably be rightly perceived as more of a strategic threat than John so can justify either way.
It’s a fair point but it’s also worth noting that in Survivor it almost never happens that the original tribe with the majority simply picks off the other tribe until they are all gone. Cracks pretty much always appear.
 

akkaps

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It’s a fair point but it’s also worth noting that in Survivor it almost never happens that the original tribe with the majority simply picks off the other tribe until they are all gone. Cracks pretty much always appear.
Also, the list shows the current set up. The list would obviously change as soon as merge happens. Shaun would go to the bottom, as he is a physical threat in the game. John would have to go as his too likeable and can do most of the physical stuff.

What you are referring to is know as a Pagonging, whereby one tribe takes out the other tribe in order. Name comes from Borneo, where this first happened.
 

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juss

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I can't deal with the stupidity of the champions tribe leading in to the movie theatre challenge and also the incredibly obvious fact it was going to be in the popcorn and probably no longer there given it's now all over the floor.....
 

Kirby

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I think one of the players (Daisy or John?) who are not fans of the show and blurted out that David should go first because of the kids.

I think a couple more agreed and then it was sort of hard to back out from by the players that had a clue, without looking like pricks.

That was my read of it.
 

Ochre

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I think one of the players (Daisy or John?) who are not fans of the show and blurted out that David should go first because of the kids.

I think a couple more agreed and then it was sort of hard to back out from by the players that had a clue, without looking like pricks.

That was my read of it.
So be a prick.

Surely that's still better than handing Dave an idol. If you say there's an idol there, people would understand.
 

Filthy Sanchez

Norm Smith Medallist
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With your bottom 4 places occupied by original contenders I think it inconsistent that the top two places are also original contenders. If original contenders don't have the numbers come merge they will get picked off and a champion will win. (With seemingly less solid bond they might even get picked off even if they do have the numbers). I also think Baden might be ahead of John as John is more of a target as a physical threat. That said Baden will probably be rightly perceived as more of a strategic threat than John so can justify either way.
That's a really fair point. I suppose though that reasoning is based on a game down the line that we really haven't seen unfold yet. I think Luke and David can see how much of a threat the three girls are and wouldn't go along with voting out all Contenders as that will eventually see the end of them. John and Baden seem to have good relationships on both sides so I think they'll be more likely to be kept around rather than a Shaun or Daisy.
 
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