Draft Watcher Bastyy's 2021 AFL Draft Watch - Phantom V2 in post #154

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  • Bastyy

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    Hard to take too much out of today's game considering the belting and the fact the group has been together so little, but there were a few disappointing performances today.

    Josh Rachele for me is top 3, and I thought his efforts in the second half showed why. He's a competitive beast and in the third quarter he was doing a lot. Had a great smother on the wing and his launching goal was great.

    Josh Gibscus and Rhett Bazzo were fine as tall defenders, neither were standouts today but I thought they both competed well. Gibscus is well and truly moving into my top 20 at the moment on the back of the past few weeks performances.

    Finn Callaghan wasn't particularly active but showed glimpses. His run and carry has been a standout the past few months and he showed a few glimpses of that today. One who's stocks aren't particularly affected.

    Neil Erasmus was great, he's extremely classy and even if he wasn't playing in the midfield I feel like he does great work in the forward line anyway, on track to be top 20 this year I think.

    The battle for pick 1 doesn't become anymore clear. Horne was great today and just tried all day. He played like the game was worth 4 points and it was easy to tell. Daicos was great all day and used the ball perfectly. Has some of the best skills in this draft class. I'm starting to lean towards Daicos, but for now I think Horne is the number 1 pick. Will be great to see them compete against each other in the u19's carnival

    Josh Fahey was potentially BOG? I had him falling out the top 10 but for me he's right back in there. Finds the ball in the back half and uses it well, reminds me a lot of Hayden Young.

    Sonsie was disappointing, but I think he's too good to have form like this for a while, should take a lot out of going through vision of the game with the academy.

    Conway was fine in the ruck for me, much better then Moyle and I felt like Conway was better around the ground

    The rest there's not too much to say, it won't affect draft stocks too much, but it was great to be able to see the likes of Erasmus and Fahey play alongside the Victorians that have had a lot of focus this past month
     
    Top 30: May 2021
  • Bastyy

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    May or may not have forgotten to post this, but here's my updated top 30!

    1. Jason Horne (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    2. Nick Daicos (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro) (Collingwood F/S)
    3. Josh Rachele (General Forward/Vic Country)
    4. Campbell Chesser (General Defence/Vic Metro)
    5. Josh Sinn (Utility/Vic Metro)
    6. Tyler Sonsie (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    7. Josh Fahey (General Defence/New South Wales) (GWS Academy)
    8. Jacob van Rooyen (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    9. Matthew Johnson (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)
    10. Sam Banks (General Defence/Tasmania)

    11. Rhett Bazzo (Tall Defender/Western Australia)
    12. Matthew Roberts (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    13. Finn Callaghan (Outside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    14. Josh Gibscus (Tall Defender/Vic Country)
    15. Ned Long (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    16. Jack Williams (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    17. Neil Erasmus (General Forward/Western Australia)
    18. Ben Hobbs (Inside Midfielder/Vic Country)
    19. Josh Goater (General Forward/Vic Metro)
    20. Joshua Browne (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)

    21. Jase Burgoyne (Outside Midfielder/South Australia) (Port Adelaide F/S)
    22. Arlo Draper (Utility/South Australia)
    23. Blake Howes (General Forward/Vic Metro)
    24. Josh Ward (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    25. Lewis Rayson (General Defence/South Australia)
    26. Cooper Murley (Outside Midfielder/South Australia)
    27. Charlie Molan (General Defence/Vic Country)
    28. Braden Andrews (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    29. Mac Andrew (Ruckman/Vic Metro) (Melbourne NGA)
    30. Jesse Motlop (Small Forward/Western Australia) (Fremantle NGA)

    A few players have fallen from early season performances, Molan and Hobbs in particular I saw as top 15 prospects potentially this season but neither player has really had performances to suggest they're better then the players above them

    Jesse Motlop barely hangs in the top 30 despite not being overly dominant in the colts. I still think he has some of the best small forward craft out of anyone in this draft class and his ability to move into the midfield shows versatility.

    The depth of this draft class is obvious, but I think all of the players in my top 30 would be potential contenders in previous years. The 1-6 crowd for me are the elite of this draft, while anyone from 7-17 are players who could be elite. It's hard to separate some players (Still go back and forth daily over who's better between Horne and Daicos) but that makes the class even more exciting

    Quite a few players are on the edge of the top 30 for me including; Judson Clarke, Morgan Ferres, Corey Warner, Max Chipper, Jed Rule, Connor Macdonald, Sam Butler, Jake Soligo, Nasiah Wanganeen, Lachlan Rankin, Youseph Dib and Cooper Beecken
     
    July Ranking Updates
  • Bastyy

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    It's been a bit! And in that time a lot has changed ranking wise.

    1. Jason Horne (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    2. Nick Daicos (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Collingwood F/S)
    3. Sam Darcy (Tall Utility/Victoria) (Western Bulldogs F/S)
    4. Matthew Roberts (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    5. Josh Rachele (General Forward/Victoria)
    6. Finn Callaghan (Outside Midfielder/Victoria)
    7. Josh Gibscus (Tall Defender/Victoria)
    8. Campbell Chesser (General Defence/Victoria)
    9. Neil Erasmus (General Forward/Western Australia)
    10. Josh Sinn (General Defence/Victoria)

    11. Matthew Johnson (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)
    12. Josh Goater (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)
    13. Josh Fahey (General Defence/New South Wales) (GWS Academy)
    14. Tyler Sonsie (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)
    15. Mac Andrew (Ruckman/Victoria) (Melbourne NGA)
    16. Sam Banks (General Defence/Tasmania)
    17. Jack Williams (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    18. Ben Hobbs (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)
    19. Josh Ward (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)
    20. Cooper Murley (Outside Midfielder/South Australia)

    21. Jacob van Rooyen (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    22. Arlo Draper (Utility/South Australia)
    23. Rhett Bazzo (Tall Defender/Western Australia)
    24. Joshua Browne (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)
    25. Darcy Wilmot (General Defence/Victoria)
    26. Jye Amiss (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    27. Sam Butler (General Forward/Victoria)
    28. Kade Dittmar (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)
    29. Judson Clarke (General Forward/Victoria)
    30. Jake Soligo (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)

    The main additions have been Sam Darcy, who has rocketed up to 3rd, Judson Clarke, Darcy Wilmot, Jye Amiss, Sam Butler and Jake Soligo. While Jacob van Rooyen, Rhett Bazzo, Lewis Rayson, Jesse Motlop and a few others have fallen out.

    Sam Darcy is the story everyone knows about now, he's going to be a gun and I'm genuinely very interested what he'll end up doing in the Bulldogs lineup (I don't reckon he'll move Naughton to a wing or anything crazy like that). Amiss, Butler, Soligo and Clarke were all on the outer last time but have come in with consistent and/or standout performances. I've particularly enjoyed Soligo's last two performances that have landed him at 30. Ben Hobbs and Josh Ward aren't additions but both of them have had good performances recently and they're both types I already liked.

    Van Rooyen is the main player falling. I think he's been relatively unlucky where his main points of exposure this year have been the all stars game, which he didn't perform particularly well in, and his few WAFL League games, in which he looked fine but he hasn't been able to get back due to a mixture of form and glandular fever. I have no doubt he'll get back if we ever get champs this year, but for now he's falling purely because others are performing better for me.

    The players that are close at the moment include Ned Long, Tom Brown, Lewis Rayson, Blake Howes, Morgan Ferres and Luke Nankervis
     
    August 2021 Update
  • Bastyy

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    1. Jason Horne (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    2. Nick Daicos (Balanced Midfielder/Vic Metro) (Collingwood F/S)
    3. Sam Darcy (Tall Utility/Vic Metro) (Western Bulldogs F/S)
    4. Finn Callaghan (Outside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    5. Neil Erasmus (Mid-Forward Hybrid/Western Australia)
    6. Josh Gibscus (Tall Defender/Vic Country)
    7. Josh Rachele (General Forward/Vic Country)
    8. Mac Andrew (Ruckman/Vic Country) (Melbourne NGA)
    9. Matthew Roberts (Inside Midfielder/South Australia)
    10. Josh Sinn (Outside Utility/Vic Metro)

    11. Matthew Johnson (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia)
    12. Josh Goater (Balanced Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    13. Josh Fahey (General Defence/Allies) (GWS Academy)
    14. Ben Hobbs (Inside Midfielder/Vic Country)
    15. Josh Ward (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    16. Sam Butler (General Forward/Vic Country)
    17. Tyler Sonsie (Inside Midfielder/Vic Metro)
    18. Arlo Draper (General Forward/South Australia)
    19. Campbell Chesser (Outside Midfielder/Vic Country)
    20. Jye Amiss (Tall Forward/Western Australia)

    21. Sam Banks (General Defence/Tasmania)
    22. Cooper Murley (Outside Midfielder/South Australia)
    23. Jesse Motlop (Small Forward/Western Australia) (Freo Metro NGA)
    24. Joshua Browne (Inside Midfielderr/Western Australia)
    25. Darcy Wilmot (General Defence/Vic Metro)
    26. Jack Williams (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    27. Jacob van Rooyen (Tall Forward/Western Australia)
    28. Rhett Bazzo (Tall Defender/Western Australia)
    29. Judson Clarke (General Forward/Vic Country)
    30. Blake Howes (Outside Utility/Vic Metro)

    A few changes this time around. Erasmus has entered the Top 5 and I think he'll stay there for the rest of the year, looks so good

    Bazzo and Clarke both on the brink of falling out, Howes is moving up

    A few on the outer, including Mitch Knevitt, Charlie Molan, Kade Dittmar, Tom Brown, Morgan Ferres and Hugh Jackson, that could move up soon
     
    September Top 30
  • Bastyy

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    Long-time no update, but here's my latest top 30

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    I've been trying to fill a hole in my knowledge by watching a lot more SA football. I've been particularly impressed by Draper and watching Wanganeen-Milera's SANFL games as well as his state game, has made me confident he's definitely a top 20 prospect

    It's still so hard to rate players, I feel like anyone from 7 to 22 can all be swapped and 23 onwards is almost impossible to decide.

    Sheldrick and Hough both look like big risers, Hough more so off the back of his WAFL League call up and his amazing peformance in the state game. Sheldrick has been thereabouts for a while now and I think he's got what it takes to be a hard at it contested bull at AFL level.

    Morgan Ferres is essentially 31, with Zac Taylor, Tom Brown, Sam Banks, Kade Dittmar, Jack Williams, Leek Alleer, Charlie Molan, James Tunstill, Jake Soligo, Mitch Owens and Lewis Rayson all on the cusp of the 30.

    Top 50 coming next month (hopefully)
     
    WA vs SA 25/09/21
  • Bastyy

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    Not the worst game between WA and SA, a lot of skill errors but still a lot to work with from a recruiting POV

    Arthur Jones was one I mentioned earlier in the week as someone who I thought had been doing really well for Claremont, got the call up and now everyone's talking about him. Fast, smooth and courageous are 3 words I'd use to describe him and I think he showed why he should be drafted this year, he'll get another chance to show off his skills in the grand final for the WAFL next week and hopefully he does so again in the 3rd game vs SA. I'd gladly take him late in the ND

    Kaden Harbour was one who didn't get much of the footy but when he did he definitely made the most of his efforts. Had some really good kicks and I thought his work inside 50 and around the ball was great. He did have an awkward moment in the third when he got ran down by behind from an SA player but I think he showed enough today that as a rookie small forward you could do a lot worse

    Jahmal Stretch was someone at the start of the game who I was initially disappointed with but the second half proved why he's a genuine chance to go in the ND. Speed, leap and x-factor all ooze in Stretch's play and he had some great highlights when he got his chance around the ball

    Matthew Johnson's last quarter more then made up for his rather lackluster first 3 and was one of the reasons why WA won the game. One of the few good ball users today and honestly it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to call him BOG

    Brady Hough was really good in the first half but towards the end fell off a bit. His athleticism and smarts are the two things that are going to get him drafted (potentially in the first round) and he deserves all the praise he gets

    Kade Dittmar had an odd game. From the 3rd quarter onward he really turned on and did really well in the contest. He's a genuine bull but the issue with his game today was he kept throwing the ball on his boot rather then handballing it off to someone else or taking time to assess his options. I think he's a top 50 prospect but today he had quite a few things to improve on.

    Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a top 10 lock for me. Backed up his great performance with an even better one this week and his skills were as good as ever. Genuine gun and I don't think there's any better outside player in the draft

    Arlo Draper looked really good before his injury. One of the few guys you can actually call a utility. If you're looking for a versatile player for a lot of upside you don't have to look much further

    Lewis Rayson is one I expected more from but I don't think he necessarily did anything wrong today, I just wanted more from him. I'd be taking him in the top 50 and I think using him on the wing is where clubs will try to shoe horn him in

    My main focus was on 2021 prospects but Adam D'Aloia, Jackson Broadbent, Jedd Busslinger and Kane Bevan were all really good today. Still wish we got to see Kobe Ryan today, who I think is SA's best prospect next year

    A few other players had okay games. Richard Farmer started off well before fading out. Eric Benning showed why he's still a bit of a project but has genuine upside, Jordan Lukac was pretty similar in that regard. James Tunstill wasn't as good as last time but he's shown enough to get drafted now. Finn Gorringe isn't anything to ride home about but there's a lot worse players you could draft as a rookie/late pick. Lochlan Paton was another who started out okay but didn't do much besides that, could be a good pressure forward at AFL level. Jacob van Rooyen was good in defence but deserved to play in the forward line over Luke Polson who wasn't very good today.

    Blayne O'Loughlin got a lot of cheap possesions but he had a few skillful moments and I'd gladly take him as a Cat-B if I was Adelaide. Harvey Harrison just at face value looked a pretty good player, nothing special about him but one who made me want to go back and watch his previous SANFL games. Zac Becker was one who I've put a lot of work into recently and I still don't think he's very good, was quiet today. Lukas Cooke had a few almost moments. Shay Linke has a good build for a midfielder but was another who's skills did him no favours today, like him as a rookie. Hugh Jackson was another who had some okay moments but was let down by skills or just went missing.

    Overall, okay game, it's fair to want more but I think we learnt a few things today that can be taken to the draft. Next game should have Jesse Motlop, Corey Warner, Jack Williams, Josh Cripps, Bryce Watson, Max Chipper, Rhett Bazzo, Judd McVee, Josh Browne, Jed Hagan, Taj Woewodin, Jason Horne-Francis, Isaac Birt and Matthew Roberts all available for selection so hopefully some more talent on show
     
    October Rankings Update (Top 50)
  • Bastyy

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    This is a big one, here's my top 50 for 2021.

    Before I get to the rest of the 50, Hough is rising off the back of his amazing recent form, and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has risen to the top 10.

    The outside of the 30 is pretty close, 30-38 could all be swapped and 39-48 are all pretty similar. I've got a few players on the outer that I'm still not entirely sure on. Hugh Jackson and Marcus Windhager are two who I need to see more of before I consider them Top 50. 50 onwards is a bit tough because a lot of the talents after that I would consider rookie picks that have good qualities but aren't exactly complete. Some players aren't in my 50 due to my lack of exposure, the aforementioned Jackson and Windhager are in that group, with Paul Curtis, Ned Long and Kai Lohmann included.

    Some other names from 50 onwards include Kaden Harbour, Jamieson Ballantyne, Toby Conway, Arthur Jones, Shay Linke, Luca Whitelum, Will Bella, Isaac Birt, Lukas Cooke, Bodhi Uwland, Blayne O'Loughlin, Jase Burgoyne, Lochlan Paton, James Wilis, Jai Serong and Bryce Watson
     
    November Rankings Update
  • Bastyy

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    November Rankings
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    Here's a full top 60, I think I've got a genuine idea of who I like and don't like in this draft and this is the most confident I've felt in my rankings in a while
    The top 10 is set, the more I watch Mac Andrew the more I'm impressed by him and the more I feel like I would take a risk on him

    Ben Hobbs and Campbell Chesser have been two on the top of my mind when rewatching footage and Chesser has impressed me a lot, while Hobbs has moved up slightly. I think Chesser moves really well and his skills are great, and the games I watched of him were really appealing from a draft POV

    Butler is one that not everyone has in their top 20 but come draft night I think he goes first round. His athletic attributes plus genuine footballing ability is seriously impressive and he's an impactful player in both of his positions

    Goater and Roberts are two players I have lower than some other draft watchers but I'm pretty happy where they are. On the eye test Goater looks good but I do think his kicking is a genuine concern and there are more instances of him turning the ball over than actually hitting a target. Roberts has been one where I enjoy his games from the start of the year but watching his games in the second half he looks like a completely different player. He looked like someone who was always falling behind others with his lack of speed and his ball use from the first half of the year disappeared

    51-60 are all on the fringes of "players I would take in the national draft". Jones is one I've liked a lot this year and he's finally got his time in the limelight and taken it. Conway is an okay ruckman and one I feel could have a Hickey-esque career before ever becoming a top tier ruckman. Josh Browne is one I liked last year but his skills have been terrible and I don't see much of a position for him outside of the midfield. Harrison's speed and x-factor really excites me, and he's one of my favourites in the later half of the draft. Lukac is an athletic ruck-forward and comes across as more of a project than Eric Benning, but I think he's a project worth undertaking. Harbour is one I talk about a LOT, and I think he's a genuine pressure forward who can make a name for himself in the AFL

    Outside of my top 60, there's a few who I think are worth a shot as a rookie; Luke Nankervis, Jai Serong, Hugh Jacksonz, Lochlan Paton, Luca Whitelum, Ned Long, Ethan Regan, Bryce Watson, Alastair Lord, Shay Linke, Isaac Birt and Anthony Caminiti
     
    First Round Phantom Draft
  • Bastyy

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    Hey gang, I've been sitting on this phantom for a while (Laziness on my part). Here's what I went with in the end.

    Pick 1. Jason Horne-Francis (Inside Midfielder/South Australia) (North Melbourne)
    Pick 2. Sam Darcy (Tall Forward/Victoria) (Western Bulldogs) (Matched Bid)
    Pick 3. Nick Daicos (Balanced Midfielder/Victoria) (Collingwood) (Matched Bid)
    Pick 4. Finn Callaghan (Outside Midfielder/Victoria) (GWS Giants)
    Pick 5. Mac Andrew (Utility/Victoria) (Gold Coast)
    Pick 6. Josh Rachele (General Forward/Victoria) (Adelaide)
    Pick 7. Josh Ward (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Hawthorn)
    Pick 8. Matthew Johnson (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia) (Fremantle)
    Pick 9. Ben Hobbs (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Richmond)
    Pick 10. Jye Amiss (Tall Forward/Western Australia) (Fremantle)
    Pick 11. Josh Gibscus (Tall Defender/Victoria) (St Kilda)
    Pick 12. Josh Goater (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (West Coast)
    Pick 13. Josh Sinn (Outside Midfielder/Victoria) (Essendon)
    Pick 14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Outside Midfielder/South Australia) (Port Adelaide)
    Pick 15. Neil Erasmus (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia) (GWS Giants)
    Pick 16. Darcy Wilmot (General Defence/Victoria) (Brisbane Lions)
    Pick 17. Sam Butler (General Forward/Victoria) (Richmond)
    Pick 18. Mitch Knevitt (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Sydney)
    Pick 19. Tyler Sonsie (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Melbourne)
    Pick 20. Jacob van Rooyen (Tall Utility/Western Australia) (Brisbane)

    I don't plan on doing the second round onwards, because all signs point to it being a warzone with live trades and surprise picks. I'll update this over the next few days, and I'll try to talk about some talent in the later parts of the draft I really like
     
    Phantom Draft V2
  • Bastyy

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    Pick 1. Jason Horne-Francis (Inside Midfielder/South Australia) (North Melbourne)
    Pick 2. Sam Darcy (Tall Forward/Victoria) (Western Bulldogs) (Matched Bid)
    Pick 3. Nick Daicos (Balanced Midfielder/Victoria) (Collingwood) (Matched Bid)
    Pick 4. Finn Callaghan (Outside Midfielder/Victoria) (GWS Giants)
    Pick 5. Mac Andrew (Utility/Victoria) (Gold Coast)
    Pick 6. Josh Rachele (General Forward/Victoria) (Adelaide)
    Pick 7. Matthew Johnson (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia (Hawthorn)
    Pick 8. Jye Amiss (Tall Forward/Western Australia) (Fremantle)
    Pick 9. Josh Ward (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Richmond)
    Pick 10. Neil Erasmus (Inside Midfielder/Western Australia) (Fremantle)
    Pick 11. Josh Gibscus (Tall Defender/Victoria) (St Kilda)
    Pick 12. Ben Hobbs (Inside Midfielder/Victoria)(West Coast)
    Pick 13. Josh Sinn (Outside Midfielder/Victoria) (Essendon)
    Pick 14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Outside Midfielder/South Australia) (Port Adelaide)
    Pick 15. Blake Howes (General Forward/Victoria) (GWS Giants)
    Pick 16. Darcy Wilmot (General Defence/Victoria) (Brisbane Lions)
    Pick 17. Josh Goater (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Richmond)
    Pick 18. Mitch Knevitt (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Sydney)
    Pick 19. Tyler Sonsie (Inside Midfielder/Victoria) (Melbourne)
    Pick 20. Jacob van Rooyen (Tall Utility/Western Australia) (Brisbane)

    Quick revision of my top 20 phantom given Twomey's draft is tomorrow. Amiss goes at 8 rather than 10, Erasmus goes to Freo, Howes goes to GWS, Johnson goes to Hawthorn, Hobbs goes to West Coast and Goater goes to Richmond

    Won't play out like this at all given we have live trades, and clubs would be desperate to trade up for the likes of Hobbs, and maybe Goater
     
    End of year wrap
  • Bastyy

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    And that's the draft year done! It's been fun this year and the work I've put in has felt very rewarding. In the end only 4 of my top 50 didn't get picked up (Morgan Ferres, Kade Dittmar, Charlie Molan and Jahmal Stretch)

    Instead of a full analysis, I'll just talk about the prospects I was happy that got picked up


    Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs): A wonderful pick for the Bulldogs. Went from an outsider to a draft chance from one great game and absolutely deserved to be picked up here. Has worked super hard for Wesley and Claremont and is one I have high hopes for next year

    Harvey Harrison (Collingwood): Awfully close to my top 50, and in the end if I tampered with my rankings any longer he would have been in there, but this is just a kid who I think has all the tools to succeed. Speed and x-factor are what you get from him and he's a wonderful value pick for the Pies who went with a South Australian flavour this year

    Sam Banks (Richmond): Tassie boys don't get drafted as often as I'd like, but Banks absolutely deserved a second round spot. If he wasn't injured it actually wouldn't be that surprising that he went here, given his playing ability. So excited to see this boy develop in the AFL system this year


    A few of my favourites missed out, but it's time to move on and think about next year. I'll give myself some time away from even looking at draft related stuff, as I've been super busy these past few weeks trying to figure out my rankings, and I'll spend sometime on looking at my personal analysis this year and figure out how I can improve myself in terms of talent identification

    I'll have a thread for 2022 early next year, and I'm aiming to make my work through the year more consistent.