Preview Battle for last finals spots ... how it shapes up

[Malifice]

On that topic anyone good with numbers and able to shed any light on how much we need to beat Essendon by to leapfrog them on percentage?

They're on 110.07. We're on 105.12.

 

[HARKER]

On that topic anyone good with numbers and able to shed any light on how much we need to beat Essendon by to leapfrog them on percentage?

They're on 110.07. We're on 105.12.

A score of 110 points to us and 70 to them will see us just about level.
Work pro rata from there

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Nick Riewoldt out for at least 2 games. By then their season could be over.

We know Gold Coast is a win for us. Next week is the huge one. Bombers starting to play half decently again the last two games but still losing. With Jamison and Henderson out, Hurley could have a lot of fun against us. We need to win the midfield well to prevent this from happening.

After that, will Riewoldt be back or not? Huge advantage to us if he isn't playing as he straightens them up so much. We will not be so weak in the contest as we were against them last time. Winning the next 3 is a real possibility. Only margin matters from here on.

 

[HARKER]

We know Gold Coast is a win for us.

 

[Malifice]

A score of 110 points to us and 70 to them will see us just about level.
Work pro rata from there

A few weeks ago I thought we were gone.

Now I have hope.

Which means we're probably gone.

 

[JuddyBuddy]

My over confident ladder predictor has us finishing 8th, BUT we MUST beat Essendon AND St Kilda. Lose either of those and it's all over. We also need to boost our %. Gold Coast is the obvious chance, but a tidy win over Essendon or St Kilda would be handy. Thankfully, North and Freo play each other so if we can increase our % and win our remaining games we will have every chance of sneaking 8th spot. In which case we'd probably play West Coast or Geelong.

We will deserve it if we make it from here.

 

[Wickzki]

I have the season boiling down to how much of a walloping Melbourne receives by Fremantle in round 22. Win by 10 goals and Freo miss out, win by 100 and Freo are in.

1. Adelaide (72 - 131)
2. Collingwood (72 - 126.2)
3. Hawthorn (68 - 154.8)
4. Sydney (64 - 137.5)
5. Geelong (60 - 117.7)
6. West Coast (56 - 117.5)
7. North Melbourne (56 - 113.6)
8. Carlton (52 - 110.8)
9. Fremantle (52 - 110.7) (60 point win; with 100 point win goes up to 113.1 and ends our season)
10. Essendon (48 - 106.1)
11. St. Kilda (44 - 117.6)

As I said last week, that half assed performance by the Eagles last week has every chance of ending our season.

 

[Danny_Bhoy]

Carn' the Tigs! They're every chance to beat Freo, they're still in the run mathematically as well so they'll show some fight. Prides is at stake for them to.
Freo is the only concern in my view. North's in. Dons are out. If we beat Saints that means they're out. So it's just Freo and their percentage by my predictor calculations.

 

[carlton2dabone]

Well, I posted last week that we had a realistic chance of making finals if we win all our games.

I say this, because I have Carlton sneaking into 8th spot with realistic outcomes. We dont need to rely on unrealistic outcomes (like rich beating Freo in Perth, Melbourne beating Freo in Perth, etc.

The games we rely on are games where any reasonable person will expect the outcome, things like North beating Freo at Etihad, Collingwood beating Essendon and Collingwood beating North).

From there it comes down to percentage, and if we play our best footy (we are slowly returning to an almost full strenth team), we can win our games by enough of a margin that we could just squeak by on percentage.

An average winning margin for any team that wins it game is around the 15-25 point range. So if we win our remaining games, we just have to add a few goals to that average winning margin and we will get our percentage above the line.

If Richmond can keep the game against Freo close, it will hellp us (if they cause an upset, it will help us immensly), BUT at this point our finals chances with any bookie would surely have gone up.

 

[Big Red is back]

The major issue is beating a decent side at the dome

 

[basil00]

I still think we'll finish agonisingly close, but take Richmond traditional 9th spot. However if we had Hendo and Jamo playing all 3 remaining games, i reckon we would sneak in. alas, no Hendo until 2013, would be great if we could get jamp back though.

 

[portaz]

Done the ladder predictor... best case scenario, we meet hawks in the GF....

Just saying...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Done the ladder predictor... best case scenario, we meet hawks in the GF....

Just saying...

I have a best case scenario of Hawthorn beating the Swans in Sydney and finishing 3rd, therefore going into the other side of the draw.

Carlton play Geelong (5th), then Sydney in Sydney, then Collingwood, the Crows at the G in the GF after the Crows beat the Hawks in a SA preliminary final.

 

[portaz]

I have a best case scenario of Hawthorn beating the Swans in Sydney and finishing 3rd, therefore going into the other side of the draw.

Carlton play Geelong (5th), then Sydney in Sydney, then Collingwood, the Crows at the G in the GF after the Crows beat the Hawks in a SA preliminary final.

Not gonna lie..... I like your scenario better... but swans will win at the scg coz hawks wont have as much space as they normally like...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I did say best case scenario. We certainly can't say the Hawks are no chance there.

 

[MileHigh]

I think we shot ourselves in the foot not putting Brisbane away by over 10 goals. I reckon that'll be the difference between us and fremantle on percentage

 

[jj1978]

I think we shot ourselves in the foot not putting Brisbane away by over 10 goals. I reckon that'll be the difference between us and fremantle on percentage

Lets not forget that Freo still plays Richmond and North who are both high scoring teams and with the form they're both in they are both very good chances to beat Freo (North should beat them) and Richmond will not lose by much if they do.

They do play Melbourne in the last round but with Brock's claims the other week of them tanking, won't look good if Melbourne don't at least pretend to try and fight and hopefully give Freo a scare and come close to winning.

I'm hoping we can do to Essendon like we did in our second and finals meeting last year 10+ goals and gold coast 80+points with at least a 2goal win against the saints and I think % wise we will be able to overcome Freo (but they at least need to lose one game!).

 

[MileHigh]

well the added positive to our finals aspirations is riewoldt might miss the rest of the season.
if we do make it it looks like we are back off to subiaco for a repeat of last year. one of the toughest asks in footy.
its really up to the tigers to beat freo or at least be competitive. I just don't rate them on the road. still think we will miss on percentage and it'll be the 30 or 40 points extra we should have beaten Brisbane by.

 

[Tas]

Lets not forget that Freo still plays Richmond and North who are both high scoring teams and with the form they're both in they are both very good chances to beat Freo (North should beat them) and Richmond will not lose by much if they do.

They do play Melbourne in the last round but with Brock's claims the other week of them tanking, won't look good if Melbourne don't at least pretend to try and fight and hopefully give Freo a scare and come close to winning.

I'm hoping we can do to Essendon like we did in our second and finals meeting last year 10+ goals and gold coast 80+points with at least a 2goal win against the saints and I think % wise we will be able to overcome Freo (but they at least need to lose one game!).

Round 22, 2011: North Melbourne 21.17 143 defeated Fremantle 6.9 45 Etihad Stadium
Round 19, 2010: North Melbourne 19.9 123 defeated Fremantle 10.9 69 Etihad Stadium

I am expecting the trend to continue here in Melbourne. Most of their good flashy players go missing on the road.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Round 22, 2011: North Melbourne 21.17 143 defeated Fremantle 6.9 45 Etihad Stadium
Round 19, 2010: North Melbourne 19.9 123 defeated Fremantle 10.9 69 Etihad Stadium

I am expecting the trend to continue here in Melbourne. Most of their good flashy players go missing on the road.

How are your injuries looking?

 

[Tas]

How are your injuries looking?

Adams will go under the knife for reconstruction on both shoulders. Wells and Grima got injured last week, they haven't ruled them out playing this week so I am not sure they are that serious. We get Ziebell and Thomas back from suspension this week. Garlett has played Adams' role pretty well in his absence so I think we are looking good. Other than Adams and McIntosh we haven't had any major problems this year.

 

[jj1978]

Even if Freo beat north, let's not forget north play Collingwood this weekend... So if Freo beat them and the pies beat them and we win our next two... We're on equal points with north... Or if north beats Freo so be it just as good... We keep winning and win well we are certain of 8th spot... The only issue is we have not won four in a row since 2001.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Even if Freo beat north, let's not forget north play Collingwood this weekend... So if Freo beat them and the pies beat them and we win our next two... We're on equal points with north... Or if north beats Freo so be it just as good... We keep winning and win well we are certain of 8th spot... The only issue is we have not won four in a row since 2001.

We won 4 in a row twice last year..

We have not won MORE than 4 in a row since 2001 though.

 

[Jeremias]

Just did a ladder predictor, have us missing the 8 by 0.1%

If that happens I'll vomit.

 

[Garth Vader]

Just did a ladder predictor, have us missing the 8 by 0.1%

If that happens I'll vomit.

I know, it wouldn't be great, but look at this way: Bummers are a good chance to finish outside 8 or get smashed in the first round of finals. Doesn't that compensate enough for you to decide to retain your gastric fluids?