Tasmania Battle for the Tasmanian License Megathread - Summary in OP

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fargothegreat

It's time for Tasmania to join the AFL.
Oct 8, 2011
7,613
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For what purpose? It simply will never be used. The commitment by Labor was for a 10K - 15K stadium, but they are not in power. You could build a 10K stadium for 100K if Hobart ever got an A-League club. And a 10K - 15K stadium was never going to attract marque events anyway, so for the once in a decade NRL, Rugby test, or soccer international, it will be much better to have a bigger crowd in an oval stadium. Moveable stands reduce capacity and are expensive/time consuming to operate (which is why they were very rarely used at Docklands) and sitelines for 30K smallish oval stadium will be much better than MCG or Optus. It for have a spare $100k put it into increased capacity rather than white elephant movable stands. Or go the cheaper, pretend rectangular option of drop in seats like Optus (have only been used once despite numerous rectangular events - will be interesting to see if they use them next week for SOO).

Part of the establishment of Stadiums Tasmania by the current Liberal government was to "determine the feasibility and appropriate location in the south for a new rectangular stadium". It's not just a Labor party commitment. They may very well go with Optus-style drop-in seats if cost is an issue.

The choice of 27,000 seats is deliberate, rather than being a cost-cutting measure. Its calculated based on 150% of the capacoty of the 'base case' estimate for the AFL team.

Yeah Macquarie point, only an oval, all seats covered but no roof seems the best most practical option of the lot.

This seems to be the common sense compromise option to keep those worried about cost happy. But I don't have any data to back this view up. Does a fully enclosed stadium do a significantly better job of keeping patrons warmer during winter? Does a full roof cost much more than a partial roof? These are probably questions that the government will be looking for answers on when condusting the feasibility study.
 

Mr Taswegian

Roo Man
May 25, 2019
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Part of the establishment of Stadiums Tasmania by the current Liberal government was to "determine the feasibility and appropriate location in the south for a new rectangular stadium". It's not just a Labor party commitment. They may very well go with Optus-style drop-in seats if cost is an issue.

The choice of 27,000 seats is deliberate, rather than being a cost-cutting measure. Its calculated based on 150% of the capacoty of the 'base case' estimate for the AFL team.



This seems to be the common sense compromise option to keep those worried about cost happy. But I don't have any data to back this view up. Does a fully enclosed stadium do a significantly better job of keeping patrons warmer during winter? Does a full roof cost much more than a partial roof? These are probably questions that the government will be looking for answers on when condusting the feasibility study.
If you can keep a lot of the wind out then that will make it warmer.
 

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RussellEbertHandball

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The Regatta Point one will be built over water by the looks of it but the proposed Devils Den would be completely on land.
But will it be on concrete pillars and have a concrete base and 200mm of grass and soil and be completely f@cked up at growing grass like Docklands, or will they reclaim land so that there is no concrete base and the grass can grow normally because there is a few metres of soil, so it has worms, soil biology and most importantly warmth, so that grass can grow compared to a cold concrete base.

You don't want to spend $750m and have the same BS problems you have at Docklands and will always have at Docklands until they blow a hole in the concrete base and fill in the car park with soil.

Now if they figure they can have 40-50 other events each year, where they don't really need good grass growth, and that pays the bills instead of the annual 7-11 football games, then so be it, and football then just has to put up with a s**t surface like Docklands.
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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Hawks have been steady at around 9K for more than a decade. Most was 9564 in 2019.
Ok 6,800 must have been the figure after the 2008 flag. This hawks article said you broke 9,000 barrier in 2016.

Bottom line, whether you had 7k, 8k or 9k for most of the last decade, GWS and GC would have each struggled to have had 100 members there, which means Hawks + GC averaged 5,000 each and maybe North + GWS are close to a 5k average each, but the other 14 clubs aren't close to individually having 5k members each in Tassie.
 

fargothegreat

It's time for Tasmania to join the AFL.
Oct 8, 2011
7,613
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But will it be on concrete pillars and have a concrete base and 200mm of grass and soil and be completely f@cked up at growing grass like Docklands, or will they reclaim land so that there is no concrete base and the grass can grow normally because there is a few metres of soil, so it has worms, soil biology and most importantly warmth, so that grass can grow compared to a cold concrete base.

You don't want to spend $750m and have the same BS problems you have at Docklands and will always have at Docklands until they blow a hole in the concrete base and fill in the car park with soil.

Now if they figure they can have 40-50 other events each year, where they don't really need good grass growth, and that pays the bills instead of the annual 7-11 football games, then so be it, and football then just has to put up with a s**t surface like Docklands.
Here's a bit of info on the Regatta Point site from the location report:

Whilst there are some challenges to overcome such as reclaiming and structural works, the topography of the site lends itself to a structure of this size with the land already falling away from 20 metres to sea level in the desired location. The water level is shallow here also fanning out to a depth of no more than 10 metres.

I believe the plan would be to cut into the hill, and use what they've cut to bring the land level up out of the water.

In the report, this site was rated equal-second cheapest to build (Mac Point first).
 

Walshawk

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If they are thinking about Macquarie Point they will need to hurry up. Most of the site works already done for the existing redevelopment plans.
 

Rob

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The rectangular configuration will definitely be included. They'd already committed to a new rectangular stadium so it saves the government building a separate one for $200m.
Optus has such a configuration, but it hardly ever gets used. I think it's been used twice since it was built. Its was a total waste of money - they can't use it during winter as it screws up the surface.
I can't even imagine Hobart hosting an event where it would get used at all. Even on the off chance they get an A League team, any new stadium will be way too big for them.
 

tandino

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Optus has such a configuration, but it hardly ever gets used. I think it's been used twice since it was built. Its was a total waste of money - they can't use it during winter as it screws up the surface.
I can't even imagine Hobart hosting an event where it would get used at all. Even on the off chance they get an A League team, any new stadium will be way too big for them.
It helps juice up the business model.
 

Tasmanian saint

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Apr 24, 2018
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The problem is that half the AFL clubs must think that the discussion is whether they should admit another GC or GWS. The reality is, the decision more akin as to whether to introduce another Adelaide or West Coast. First team into an AFL market. It is not speculative. They don’t have to convert anyone. On a smaller scale, sure, but still, this is a no brainer. A slam dunk.
It should be a slam considering the government is willing to bankroll the team it really would be looking a gift horse in the mouth
I'm interested to know if people think Tasmania would be able to get a sufficient number of members. I know Tasmania currently has 90 odd thousand members from other teams but obviously people are not going to be able to afford two memberships so do people think we can get enough members?
If half those
I always thought that figure seemed high, but it was repeated so often it sounded true.

The Career report even said: "Tasmania it has been reported has approximately 90,000 members linked to current AFL teams."

It's actually pretty poor by the report. It's pretty attainable information, and they just use second-hand information and say "it has been reported". I think it was just lazy rather than willfully misleading.

Current membership isn't too relevant anyway. You'd think many Tasmanians supporting mainland clubs wouldn't have memberships as there's no attendance benefit, but they would for a Tasmanian team.
The afl actually released that figure about five years ago didn’t come from us at the time north and hawthorn both had around 10 thousand each
 

Tasmanian saint

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The hawks wouuld have the biggest based Tassie members and the biggest figure I saw for them was 6,800 in ome of their premiership years. No way say 10 clubs would have 5k or more members down in Tassie.
That figure is incorrect in one those seasons hawthorn tipped over 10 thousand can remember being at the game they had a celebration thing for was on there banner ect
 

RussellEbertHandball

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That figure is incorrect in one those seasons hawthorn tipped over 10 thousand can remember being at the game they had a celebration thing for was on there banner ect
Read on and you will see correct figures are mentioned, and the 6,800 figure I said was after the 2008 premiership not one of the 2013-15 ones. That was my error thinking it was the figure quoted after one of the premierships last decade. Got the wrong premiership.
 
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Tasmanian saint

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Apr 24, 2018
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Ok 6,800 must have been the figure after the 2008 flag. This hawks article said you broke 9,000 barrier in 2016.

Bottom line, whether you had 7k, 8k or 9k for most of the last decade, GWS and GC would have each struggled to have had 100 members there, which means Hawks + GC averaged 5,000 each and maybe North + GWS are close to a 5k average each, but the other 14 clubs aren't close to individually having 5k members each in Tassie.
You have facts to back up this statement do you? Forget hawthorn and north for a minute Essendon Collingwood Richmond st kilda all have membership numbers over 5 k in Tasmania
 

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RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
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You have facts to back up this statement do you? Forget hawthorn and north for a minute Essendon Collingwood Richmond st kilda all have membership numbers over 5 k in Tasmania
I don't have any recent ones, but the clubs have never gone out of their way to say where their members are based, other than Hawks and North and The_Wookie put up some figures awhile back that debunked the 90,000 figure.

So if you have the link that says St Kilda have over 5k in Tasmania, how many fans do they have in each other state and territory?
 

Mr Taswegian

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May 25, 2019
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But will it be on concrete pillars and have a concrete base and 200mm of grass and soil and be completely f@cked up at growing grass like Docklands, or will they reclaim land so that there is no concrete base and the grass can grow normally because their is a few metres of soil, so it has worms, soil biology and most importantly warmth, so that grass can grow compared to a cold concrete base.

You don't want to spend $750m and have the same BS problems you have at Docklands and will always have at Docklands until they blow a hole in the concrete base and fill in the car park with soil.

Now if they figure they can have 40-50 other events where they don't really need good grass growth, and that pays the bills over 7-11 football games, then so be it, and football then just has to put up with a s**t surface like Docklands.
I must admit I'm very sure but
I don't have any recent ones, but the clubs have never gone out of their way to say where their members are based, other than Hawks and North and The_Wookie put up some figures awhile back that debunked the 90,000 figure.

So if you have the link that says St Kilda have over 5k in Tasmania, how many fans do they have in each other state and territory?
St Kilda has a lot less members in Tassie than the big club's like Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton and Richmond.
 

Blackhawk42

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It should've been Roos to Gold Coast (relocations work better in new markets, not traditional footy heartland), Bulldogs to Western Sydney (WSB), Tassie as team 17 sometime this decade, and then eventually Canberra as team 18, followed by a push for an NT team as team 19 when Darwin hits 250k, and maybe a WA3 team. 18-20 teams, a team in every state and territory. Now it'll blow out to 21 teams if there are no relocations or folding if we eventually want teams in Tassie, ACT, and NT.

Edit: I say get the Tassie deal done, bring in team 19, wait a few years and go Canberra team 20. See how the Roos go to determine if they will survive, fold, or merge, and then endgame NT in the distant future, so a max of 20-21 teams. WA/SA/NSW/QLD markets should be fine with two teams each. Even if growth is huge, at least fewer clubs, there will make those clubs huge.

What do you mean by 'see how the Roos go' in regards to 'surviving, folding or merging'? You can only be basing that around on-field form currently. Why not raise Essendon then? Who have been less successful over the past 20 years?
 

Tasmanian saint

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Apr 24, 2018
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I don't have any recent ones, but the clubs have never gone out of their way to say where their members are based, other than Hawks and North and The_Wookie put up some figures awhile back that debunked the 90,000 figure.

So if you have the link that says St Kilda have over 5k in Tasmania, how many fans do they have in each other state and territory?
Would have to get a upto date figure for you but in 2019 a q&a that Matt Finnish did online he stated st kilda had over 6 thousand members in Tasmania when asked about the chance of playing games down here again
 

fargothegreat

It's time for Tasmania to join the AFL.
Oct 8, 2011
7,613
20,651
Hobart
AFL Club
Richmond
I haven't got exact numbers on members in Tasmania, but I do have data from Gemba on the number of AFL 'fanatics' in Tasmania in 2010 and 2018.

Gemba describes a fanatic as:
  • contibuting 80% of revenue
  • 12 times more likely to attend
  • 4 times more likely to watch
  • 30 times more likely to become a member
The average conversion of fanatics to members across the current 18 clubs is 35%. However, the top quartile of clubs convert 46% and this top quartile of clubs is typically all of the clubs with smaller supporter bases (Dogs, Port, GWS, North, St Kilda), so this level of conversion is probably where you could expect a Tasmanian team to sit.

In 2010 there were 121,842 AFL fanatics in Tasmania, but in 2018 this had reduced by 19% to 96,302. So using 2018's numbers and the club-average conversion rate of 35%, you could estimate that there are approximately 34,000 Tasmanian AFL club members, which does make the 90,000 member figure previously reported on seem highly unlikely and likely confused with the number of fanatics in the state.
 

Tasmanian saint

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0A34B6A4-8EF9-44DE-961F-BB36758377C8.png

I don’t overly like Caro but she is spot on here. . Both Kennett and Cochran views are beyond ridiculous there conflict of interest in the matter is as big as it gets they both should be removed from the voting process. Regardless of weather we get a license or not hawthorns deal needs to be canceled immediately Jeff Kennett is literally biting the hand that feeds him there’s ungrateful then there’s him
 

Hodgey 15

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View attachment 1430118
I don’t overly like Caro but she is spot on here. . Both Kennett and Cochran views are beyond ridiculous there conflict of interest in the matter is as big as it gets they both should be removed from the voting process. Regardless of weather we get a license or not hawthorns deal needs to be canceled immediately Jeff Kennett is literally biting the hand that feeds him there’s ungrateful then there’s him
It would be an outright disgrace if a small of group of individuals with self interest at heart were to stop Tassie getting an AFL team.
It would be even more of a disgrace if the AFL let that happen.
 

sverik25

Norm Smith Medallist
May 31, 2008
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On the St Kilda Tasmanian membership question, this was from May 2017:

18813440_10212376696308438_1834967368171778451_n.jpg


Our membership total then was 37,424 and Tassie made up 4.5% of that. Extrapolate that out based on our current membership of 57,777 and you could estimate we have about 2,600 Tasmanian members.

Obviously this would be short of Hawthorn and North, but I think would compare pretty well with most other clubs. If you said the average Victorian club (aside from Hawthorn and North) had 2,500 Tasmanian members, plus approx. 9k for Hawthorn and 6k for North that gives 35k. Add in maybe an average of 300-400 for the other clubs and you're looking at an additional 3k.

My very rough estimate adds up to about 38k Tasmanian members across the AFL.
 

Mr Taswegian

Roo Man
May 25, 2019
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On the St Kilda Tasmanian membership question, this was from May 2017:

18813440_10212376696308438_1834967368171778451_n.jpg


Our membership total then was 37,424 and Tassie made up 4.5% of that. Extrapolate that out based on our current membership of 57,777 and you could estimate we have about 2,600 Tasmanian members.

Obviously this would be short of Hawthorn and North, but I think would compare pretty well with most other clubs. If you said the average Victorian club (aside from Hawthorn and North) had 2,500 Tasmanian members, plus approx. 9k for Hawthorn and 6k for North that gives 35k. Add in maybe an average of 300-400 for the other clubs and you're looking at an additional 3k.

My very rough estimate adds up to about 38k Tasmanian members across the AFL.
I have seen somewhere in the past that Richmond has over 5000 Tassie members and I'm sure Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon would be similar.
 

sverik25

Norm Smith Medallist
May 31, 2008
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I have seen somewhere in the past that Richmond has over 5000 Tassie members and I'm sure Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon would be similar.
Hmmm I'd like to see confirmation of that. I can buy that with Richmond because of their strong connections to the state and having the biggest membership of Vic clubs but in general, the bigger clubs do seem to struggle to convert supporters to members, especially outside Victoria. I remember an image from 2020 which showed St Kilda and Collingwood neck and neck for Queensland members (not sure if posted in this thread), but I don't think people really think St Kilda has as many supporters as Collingwood in Queensland.

Also worth remembering St Kilda probably has a stronger connection to Tasmania than those three clubs you mentioned, having had a large number of Tasmanian players over the years and being one of three clubs to play home games in Tassie prior to 2020.

Even so, if you allow for a larger number with the "Big 4", I doubt Tasmania would have over 50k club members.

I think that a number like this for interstate clubs is good though, and shows that Tasmanians are engaged in the game.
 

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