BBL06, Match 30, Heat vs Renegades @ Gabba 7.40PM

Who wins?

  • Heat

    Votes: 10 58.8%
  • Renegades

    Votes: 7 41.2%

  • Total voters
    17

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Straight out of my favourite episode of South Park, "The Losing Edge"!
"We're goiiinnggg dooownnnn, we're gonna looooooseee" (in smack talk voice)

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So first thing for the Gades - sixers must lose - if they win, Gades are out. There is no way both the Scorchers and Canes can finish below the Gades - one or the other.

If sixers lose:

For the Hurricanes to jump above the renegades (using an average score of about 160) - they either have to win by about 29 runs, or chase it down in 16-and-a-bit overs.

However, if they win by about 39 runs (or chase down the target in about 15-and-a-bit overs, the scorchers drop below the Gades.

So if the sixers lose, and the Canes win by between 29 and 39 runs (using 160) - both the scorchers and Canes finish in the finals. Oh dear - match-fixing, anyone?

If the sixers win, the hurricanes need to win by about 32 or more to jump above the scorchers. If they win by less, they stay below them. (and the target for a chase is about the 15-16 over mark).
 
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With the semi finals on Tuesday and Wednesday nights do we know which night is allocated for 1st v 4th and which night is allocated for 2nd v 3rd....or is it yet to be determined/flexible once teams involved are known?

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If Stars win then it will be a derby final unless Canes do enough to get in but not pass Scorchers

The only possible opponent for the Renegades is the Stars
False

If Perth win big say 50 runs and the Stars win in a close one it will be Scorchers vs Renegades
 
With the semi finals on Tuesday and Wednesday nights do we know which night is allocated for 1st v 4th and which night is allocated for 2nd v 3rd....or is it yet to be determined/flexible once teams involved are known?

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Most likely to be the:

1st v 4th Tuesday
2nd v 3rd Wednesday

That's what it was last year and it only makes sense
 
Seriously - potentially, the run rates are so close, and the margins so fine, it could come down to the last ball. If a team is chasing and going to win comfortably, the final placings could depend on whether they hit the winning runs by a boundary (and so win by 4 or 6 runs), or just push the winning single (and thus only win by 1).

If the hurricanes are going to beat the Scorchers by about the magic number, you could see the scorchers bowl deliberate wides to ensure they lose by the 'right amount' - of course, then you get into juggling the number of balls with the run-rate (only legal balls are counted).
 
Seriously - potentially, the run rates are so close, and the margins so fine, it could come down to the last ball. If a team is chasing and going to win comfortably, the final placings could depend on whether they hit the winning runs by a boundary (and so win by 4 or 6 runs), or just push the winning single (and thus only win by 1).

If the hurricanes are going to beat the Scorchers by about the magic number, you could see the scorchers bowl deliberate wides to ensure they lose by the 'right amount' - of course, then you get into juggling the number of balls with the run-rate (only legal balls are counted).

Im pretty sure that's not how net run rate works.. If you are batti second, it's the amount of balls/overs you take to score the total runs that counts towards it. Matter of fact, I'm pretty sure any additional runs hit on the winning ball don't actually count to a teams score?

But definitely, batting second, it's how quick you score he runs, and not how many you score off the last ball
 
Not true - sure, it's the number of overs that is most critical. However, if you score a single to win the game, your final score is calculated as. for example, 161 runs off 17.3 overs.

If you hit a six when scores are level, your score is listed as 166 off 17.3 overs. If you hit a boundary, all runs are scored. If the ball doesn't reach the boundary, only the first completed run is counted.

If the scorchers make 160, and the Hurricanes chase it down in so that scores are level after 16 overs and 3 balls. If the next ball is hit for a single, the Scorchers still have a better overall run-rate. If it is hit for 4, the scorchers are still better. If it is hit for 6, the Hurricanes have a better run rate than the scorchers. If the scorchers bowl a deliberate wide or no-ball - the scorchers still have a better overall run-rate (even though that last wide/no ball is not included in the run-rate calculation - only the penalty run from it).

Calculators could be going mad in the last few overs.
 

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