Be Patient 2016

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This is actually interesting and not planned but GWS are likely to go into this draft with 5 live picks being 7, 15, 16 , 32 & 34. So IIRC the rule changes these are the only picks they can use for points. At this stage I have only picked one GWS academy player. I would suspect that GWS would expect and want 4 of these kids but it would be hard to pick an Academy kid with their own pick because it would feel like over bidding.

Josh Rotham - OK a slight needs pick, GWS only weakness appears to be down back. They will be still looking for players to take over from Shaw. Although he is a lot taller than Shaw there is some possibility that Rotham could step into that role. Rotham to me should be part of the back 5 and where possible pick up the 5th forward as he comes back into the forward line but spend a lot of time playing the plus one role. He has the aerial ability to cut in front and mark or come over the back of the pack and punch it away. At ground level he is not slouch and is very quick over the ground. As his direct opponent you would want to run him off of his feet as I suspect his endurance results will err on the poor side of average, or you want to be the monster who can body him out of the contest. As a team you would think they could minimise the number of times this happens. There are times when he reminds me of Fisher (SK) and to be honest I am not sure that is a good of bad thing. He appears to be quite clean with the ball but at times I get annoyed with him because he tends to go sideways to often but when watching on tv you never know if that is because there are no options up the line. The other player he reminds me of at times is Jake Lever.
Upside, for the sake of a name lets say Sam Fisher, a 200 game defender who is very good without being a champion. Downside hmm it is always easier picking out the positive side of this ummm Silvagni (freo). I certainly expect him to be better than Silvagni but how much. I think he wont reach the heights of Gibson and Fisher but I think he will carve out a nice solid career.
State league to start with but will probably get some chances to play in his first season.
 
Joe Atley - big bodied strong midfielder who loves the competitive stuff and plays a very physical style of football. There will be a lot more skilful players than him drafted but I don't get the opinion that his skills are poor either. Like Clarke not only is he good inside but he also gets involved in transition football although he is not the one who will run and carry the ball. Reasonable over his head. Good balance and strength. Another who is very natural at laying shepherds and creating space for his team mates. Thus he brings more to the team on game day than what you first see when watching a game. I also think he has a lot more leg speed than he is being credited with. He seems to be the one who gets down graded because of the way his brother has turned out at AFL level, where most get talked up because they are a brother of, not sure why. Although I see him as a pure midfielder it is possible that he could start in the backline although he may be limited down back by what I think is a lack of agility. He is get at the first sideways movement and it can be sharp but then he gets struck and cant change the direction again, he has the zip without the zap. He uses his strength to free his arms in a tackle and can change a neutral position into an effective outlet handball that creates attacking movement. I think by now you can guess what type of players I really like.
Upside David Mundy type who is very good but for some reason does not get the kudos that he deserves even though everyone knows he is a good footballer. Downside lets say Koby Stephens where you play some good football but never really establish yourself as a midfielder. Due to his size I actually think he will play pretty early on, if given time to adjust to the pace he could really surprise come year one. He does not have the upside that some have. I visualise a Guthrie type of midfielder. (again I don't see a lot of other afl teams so this comparison may not be right)
 
Ryan Garthwaite - If you are the standard football watcher you would be excused for saying did he even play in the championship or all stars game. Mind you this is the way full backs tend to be. Absolutely shut Strnadica and Kerr out in the carnival games I watched and did a good job in the all stars game and played a little higher up the ground in that match as well. In the one on one battle he is surprisingly strong, you think they should just push him aside and I can not recall him being muscled out of the marking contest once and has the knack of getting his fist to the ball with what is obviously a reach advantage. With the ball in his hands he is poised and a real solid user of the ball. Tends to pick the easier target coming out of defence which when playing deep back that is not a bad thing. When he was up the ground in the all stars game he showed that he can do outside running and link work. Again you won't see any highlights, there are no massive spoils there is just effective spoils. He makes decisions and makes them quick, he is willing to leave his man and generally gets the decision right and generally makes that decision early, the same when the defence gets the ball he spreads very early without just looking for easy touches.
Upside you end up with Dustin Fletcher without the elite leg on offence. Downside again you end up with again I will go with Silvagni (Freo). Now how do I expect him to end up. Well for the young ones here this may not help but I expect him to reach similar heights to Stephen Paxman
 

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Ben Ainsworth - yes he finally makes an appearance. It would be easy to come ouf swinging with the negatives buf lets face it the kid is an absolute talent. Very capable forward who is exceptionally quick over the first five steps. He reads the drop of the ball very early. He is an excellent mark over head . Not the greatest forward crumber but that will get better with time. Very hard to match up on defensively but he won't have a clear athletic advantage at afl level. When he has had little stints in the midfield he has shown he can run and carry and that he can get the ball inside. His kicking can be elite. Some of his kicks are wow but then his next kick is wtf how did you miss that target by 10m. Too much gap between his good and his bad kicking. When playing in the midfield his off the ball running is very laboured , it looks like hard work and as if he can't get out of first gear and at times he looks like he has no idea where he is running. I have not seen the tac games where he racked up big numbers and they would make very interesting viewing. Some of his ground ball pick ups are elite buf then he can double grab the ball at times. His endurance looks poor and may explain a lot of the above. His endurance testing will be interesting .
Upside you get a Rioli forward who can win matches and scare defences. Downside you get Vezpremi who you just cant build a motor on . I am actuaĺly only projecting Puopolo type who does some good things but not often enough to push into the very good group.
He is one in this draft that i would like to see more of.
 
Myles Poholke - The first three times I watched him my reaction was meh nothing special here. In a way i was right in that there is no stand out feature. However what I did start to notice is that he does everything pretty well. Nice clean hands with a quick give. Nice strong frame to be able to stand up in tackles. Nice solid kick. As a midfielder to get to the elite level he needs to add more outside running or get himself to the bottom of the packs more often. I feel he has good vision but keeps the game simple and should cope with the pace of afl football.
Upside you get Jack Steven. Downside you get Nathan Hrovat. Ok this is a hard one to project as reaching that top end would not surprise me but still more likely to be a bit like Lyons was this year. I actually think he can move to afl level pretty quickly but he is a midfielder so he will have to wait for oppurtunitues. I can not see him starting on a flank.
 
Sorry I have got distracted by trade week.

So yeah I will get back to them next week. Trying to track down more footage of the lesser lights.
 
Tim English - The first time you see him you just go wow how good are his skills for a ruckman and how calm is he in traffic. His kicking is as good as it gets for a ruckman and is actually pretty good by general afl standards. The other thing is he is willing to get down and compete at ground level and when he gets the ball he is very good at timing his release of the ball to give his team mates the best chance of winning the ball. His hands are generally clean then he had a poor marking all stars game which seemed out of the ordinary for him. Not quick and nimble but moves very well for a guy his size. His ruck work is good and when he does get a clear tap he can direct it fairly well. At the moment he lacks the endurance to take advantage of his around the ground abilities often enough in a game. Building his engine will be imperative to him becoming a serviceable footballer at afl level. In addition to this he is very skinny and it is effecting how effective he is in ruck and his contested marking. A lot of work needs to be done in the gym to get him to build mass and core strength. So if you can build strength mass and endurance you end up with a star afl footballer
Upside is he can become another Grundy. Downside is that he doesn't develop physically and you end up with Josh Fraser
Where will he end up. Have fun deciding that one. The risk is why I would not take him in the first round as the risk v reward is not great enough. I am actually forecasting closer to the Fraser level because I struggke to see that he will physically develop enough . For his sake I hope I am wrong
 
Will Setterfield. I hate judging this one. It is clear that he has so many outstanding attributes. He looks a great size and shape. Looks to move through traffic very well with good lateral movement. Looks to be reasonably clean. Uses the ball well by hand in traffic. He looks strong in the contest even though he is relatively skinny. Looks like he has a good kick. So why so low. Well some of it may be just the lack of decent footage which has left me with some questions. I don't see him getting enough ball in transition and when he does i don't see him carrying the ball. This leaves me with doubts about his pace and endurance. Queries over both of these is not good, normally you want one to off set the other if these are ok then the query is over his desire to work hard off of the ball which again is nof ideal. If he was to play back as the opposition coach I would try and match him up with the forward with a high work rate just to fatigue him into the ground.
Upside . Goddard like . A lot of ouside ball and high hurt factir in transition from defence whilst being capable of playing in the midfield. Downside you get a Broadbent who shows glimpses of being elite at moments during games but can not do it often enough to be a very good footballer . I actually think he will be closer to the broadbent end than the Goddard end.
 

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Brennan Cox - Looking at him there is nothing that reaches out and says I am a star. Likewise when watching him closely there doesn't appear to be anything he does poorly. Attacks the contest in the air well. Recovers fairly well when the ball hits the ground. Has nice clean hands good agility for his size. Poise in traffic without being flashy. Spreads well on the outlet. He has a reasonable kick again without being great. I like his competitive instinct and he has a physical pressence in the contest. I would like to see him playing down back but not anchored deep against the primary target.
Upside you end up with a Glenn Jackovic, this however is very unlikely but the style of game I think he is suited to. Downside you end up with Chaplin as in a good honest defender who will be serviceable at afl level. I actually think he will be better than Chaplin because he should be better in the contest but he will still get caught out athletically on occassions which will stop him getting to the very good level
 
hi missionpossible i am hoping that we take Ben Ainsworth at pick 3 (likely) but would be happy with McCluggage or McGrath as well. noticed you have Ainsworth at 19, by far the lowest ranking i have seen of him in various PT/power rankings. what is your knock on him that you don't see him as a top 3-5 chance?

i have read your assessment in the thread although would be interested in a more detailed opinion.
 
jason pm said:
hi missionpossible i am hoping that we take Ben Ainsworth at pick 3 (likely) but would be happy with McCluggage or McGrath as well. noticed you have Ainsworth at 19, by far the lowest ranking i have seen of him in various PT/power rankings. what is your knock on him that you don't see him as a top 3-5 chance?

i have read your assessment in the thread although would be interested in a more detailed opinion.
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Yeah writing is not my forte. I deliberately did the first round of this before DC and trade week.

1 - at the moment I think Ainsworth will be a small forward at AFL level. This then excludes him from being a top 10 pick even if he was my love child. For a small forward to be able to go top 10 you would need to be able to guarantee that they are as good as Rioli. The problem with small forwards is that if they don't make the grade they are off the list pretty darn quick and you don't want to be tossing out top 10 picks in a hurry.

2 - at the time of writing that I had big fears about his endurance but I was pleasantly surprised with his testing at DC which tended to indicate that he has the base to develop the fitness required to go into the midfield. This would then suggest that his laboured running has a bit to do with the lack of desire to push back which is not that unusual with kids who have grown up being a class above. I would think he has a lot of bad habits that need to be broken.

3 - with his limited midfield time, what I have not seen is him getting involved in overlap running and if he can't do that at afl level he has limited roles he can play through the midfield. The only time he seems to overlap run is when he has given off the disposal. I then question his smarts to read the play when he has to join in on it (very good at being on the end of it) or the desire to push to position to get involved.

4 - as a small forward he relies on his marking a lot. The problem is he will get matched up on guys 188cm who are quick to take that out of his game so he will have to develop his crumbing or he could find himself a non factor at AFL level.

5 - everyone tends to rave about his disposal and in what games I have seen he has missed some very easy shots at goal and done some poor field kicking amongst his good kicks. Just not consistent enough on the games I have watched to be considered to 3.

Bear in mind I still have him rated as a first round pick so I still think he can play and he can play afl football at a high level but I think there is downside risk to him that others are not seeing or they are glossing over because they are confident in him achieving his upside potential. If I was able to get hold of footage of his TAC games where he played midfield and he got a stack of the ball it may change my ratings dramatically but I am not going to lift him up purely based on him getting 30 possession in a couple of TAC games that I have not seen.

As stated in the opening posts my rankings/selections/reviews are based on what I have seen at the carnival and the all stars game. I am now starting to find some more footage but it seems harder to find this year. It would be nice if the afl would put up one junior game a week from around the country to give us a look at these guys at the lower level.
 
His kicking can certainly be elite but there are then times when he is running across 50 in the open and he fails to make the distance and times where he has really sliced his kick in field play. Outside of these his kicking is good, he just needs to remove the poor kicks from his game. I have not said that he is a poor kick, more that he does a few to many poor kicks. It is not that I have slid him down on his kicking, it is more I have not pushed him up for being an elite kick for the reasons stated.

It can certainly be seen as being hypercritical when I rate Galluci whose kicking is average at best.
 
Geelong should draft Josh Battle at Pick #24, Jonty Scharenberg or Jarod Berry at Pick #38 and Michael Barlow at Pick #42.
Then use the rest on Ruckmen and Tall Defenders maybe a Mitch Brown like player
Sorted
 
If Berry is available at 38 there needs to be a lot of recruiters justifying their selections.
If you take Barlow my question to you RM would be WTF didn't you list him as a free agent
 
Jacob Allison. Yeah this one is a reach. My analytical side says no way has he justified being rated this high. My instinct is telling me he will develop into a great talent. So before someone says how do you justify this it is all about my perception of where he will end up. Pace to burn and loves getting onto the outside ball And when does he uses that pace and can deliver a nice long kick. The kicks probably look better than they actually are. I do get sucked into my outside ball carriers. What I also like is he has the ability and desire to compete at ground level and has a good strong tackle. The shame is he is not great overhead. Needs to learn to get involved more often and I accept that at the moment that is both a mental and an endurance issue. i am confident his endurance will improve. I have no idea who to compare him to.
Upside. I probably go a long way back to an Abernathy. Now that probably doesn't help a lot of people here. Maybe the offensive version of Hanley. Downside is you get a cale Morton. I actually expect him to end up closer to the Hanley level. It will take a few years of patience from his coaches to develop his game.
 
missionpossible said:
Jacob Allison. Yeah this one is a reach. My analytical side says no way has he justified being rated this high. My instinct is telling me he will develop into a great talent. So before someone says how do you justify this it is all about my perception of where he will end up. Pace to burn and loves getting onto the outside ball And when does he uses that pace and can deliver a nice long kick. The kicks probably look better than they actually are. I do get sucked into my outside ball carriers. What I also like is he has the ability and desire to compete at ground level and has a good strong tackle. The shame is he is not great overhead. Needs to learn to get involved more often and I accept that at the moment that is both a mental and an endurance issue. i am confident his endurance will improve. I have no idea who to compare him to.
Upside. I probably go a long way back to an Abernathy. Now that probably doesn't help a lot of people here. Maybe the offensive version of Hanley. Downside is you get a cale Morton. I actually expect him to end up closer to the Hanley level. It will take a few years of patience from his coaches to develop his game.
Click to expand...


I think Allison is going to be a slow burn and a while from now when he is 25 people will go back and do the top 20 of this draft and he will be close to the top ten, without anyone really thinking he is a star.

Would happily place him around 20-30 on my draft board. Although players who go backwards in their draft year very very often tend to be busts.
 
Kobe Mutch - boy he is slow. Ok that covers his weakness. How much Mutch is effected by this as an afl footballer will be interesting. He will be easily tagged out of a game but if Mutch is your best midfielder then you are already in a world of pain. No matter where the ball is around the ground Mutch positions himself where he is going to be where he can get the ball or he can receive the ball and as such he gets a lot of cheap possessions that you only get on the back of hard work. He will win his own ball and he will tackle but his defensive work is limited by his pace. Can find space forward but if playing as a forward hw would be easy to defend because his lack of pace. Reliable kick, nothing fancy it just gets the job done.
Upside he turns out like Lewis (hawks/melb) in that he is a very good footballer but highlights are very few and far between.
Downside you end up with a Hrovat who can't quite crack it . I will back him in to be closer to Lewis as long as he is in a good midfield group.
 
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