Opinion Beams Trade [Officially derailed: Now disussing the folly of gambling, net negative players and the merit of Sier]

[Scodog10]

Way too many variables at play to bother answering firmly, IMO:

1. Where does Quaynor receive a bid
2. What’s your preferred strategy for NGA’s and FS
3. Where do we finish in 19
4. Was there a viable alternative to significantly improve our best 22
5. What impact will the 2019 potential first round pick have on our ability to win a premiership before Steele, Pendles and now Beams retire
6. What cap flexibility do we now have

My take on all of those is around 15, position yourself to have a pick before they’re nominated, top 6, not for mine, close to zero and enough with Wells entering the final year of his contract plus natural attrition. From that you can probably determine which way I’m leaning, but the key for mine is we’re win now and we’ve just improved our list for 2019.

I think the key takeaway for me is that as a club we need to stop investing in future drafts unless it’s guilt edged talent. The deal on Murray hamstrung us significantly this year despite Hine’s absurd comment on “flexibility”! He looks an absolute fool from where I’m sitting because of our need to get 41 and 44 back almost scuppering the deal...

 

[Obese Arachnid]

Alas, its so hard to have a Gaytime on your own.

I would've thought the opposite.

 

[PicaBoo]

In hinesight we got mature Beams, DeGoey, Greenwood and Crisp for a future 1st round , some loose change and Beams AWOL for a few yrs.
I say we have won that trade

 

[ash84]

two first round picks that could be 18 and 18 is different to two top 5 picks.
Paid less than the crows did for Gibbs and Beams is a much better player.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

I hate the f***rs that can't be bothered adding one.
Thoughts WalterBlaknWhte

My thoughts...

When you look at stars, the great celestial nocturne, you appreciate enormity.

In our insignificance there is liberation.

 

[ottoman]

My thoughts...

When you look at stars, the great celestial nocturne, you appreciate enormity.

In our insignificance there is liberation.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

My thoughts...

When you look at stars, the great celestial nocturne, you appreciate enormity.

In our insignificance there is liberation.

Ahh yes, my underpants.

 

[Bird on a wire]

Yep. Be very Quiet in next year Trade and Draft times

Your username suggests that trade time is your raison d'etre (your reason for being or living). The next draft, then the next trade period and draft will be dull without top picks. Maybe change your name so you don't feel you need to live up to it. Take a rest from drafts and player swapfests.

 

[magpies42]

Cost v benefit is measured in premierships, we will be in a better position to tell this time next year!

Huge inclusion boosting our chances next year dramatically.

 

[Bird on a wire]

Cost v benefit is measured in premierships, we will be in a better position to tell this time next year!

Huge inclusion boosting our chances next year dramatically.

Any comment now really is meaningless guesswork.

 

[Quicky]

Your username suggests that trade time is your raison d'etre (your reason for being or living). The next draft, then the next trade period and draft will be dull without top picks. Maybe change your name so you don't feel you need to live up to it. Take a rest from drafts and player swapfests.

What's your passion? If someone told you to give it up what would you say?

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

The Sam Murray trade was a 12 point giveup in the draft order. He was showing every sign of it being a good trade.

For a rookie list player, you can give up 12 picks in the pick 50s-70s. Not in pick 20s-40s

 

[jjsmitty8]

At first glance it felt like we did, BUT if we’re using pick 18 to match a bid for Isaac Quaynor anyway, then it doesn’t matter if we’re using that one pick or a collection of other picks with the same points equivalent.

If we finish top 8 next year then our first round pick is in the teens anyway.

So in summary, I can live with it even though it might slightly be bordering overs. But as has been touched on, if we win a flag then no one will be complaining.

 

[doppleganger]

two first round picks that could be 18 and 18 is different to two top 5 picks.
Paid less than the crows did for Gibbs and Beams is a much better player.

We don’t know what we have paid yet...

If we collapse in a heap and have to hand over a pick 4 to the Lions...it is a clear stuff up.

From an entering 2019 perspective, we have given up 400 draft points in 2018 by trading 18 and 56 for 41 and 44....so hopefully still end up with IQ and W.Kelly who have been our targets from a long way out.

There is the potential ‘opportunity cost’ that no bid comes for IQ before 18, so we potentially could have added another highly rated kid with pick 18 and still got IQ and Kelly, but who the feck really knows how highly IQ and Kelly are actually rated by us?? And how many players we are actually looking to draft!?

To potentially still get the 2018 draftees we want, whilst keeping Moore n Langdon and adding Beams it is a huge result and strengthens our prospects in 2019-20.

Late teen, early 20s type picks are hardly any guarantee to be any good...for one Grundy we have taken BenKen, Broomy, Danny Stanley and Ryan Cook with that type of pick...give me 3-4 years of elite Beams over a 20% chance of getting a star.

 

[Bird on a wire]

What's your passion? If someone told you to give it up what would you say?

Just trying to hose down any unnecessary expectation. Unless of course we trade someone out for a 1st round pick. Nothing better than top fresh talent i.e. Stephenson, De Goey. While Beams is with us we need to win a premiership. To steal a line from 'Saving Private Ryan', my advice to him is, 'Make this count!

 

[rupink06]

We essentially paid a single first rounder (2019) that's likely to be pick 10-18, for a bloke that will 100% make our side stronger.

I would take that any day of the week.

I dunno what you blokes saying we overpaid are smoking.

 

[OniAu]

The old crew back together with the new guns

Pendles , Sidey and Beams

Treloar , Adams and Sier

Throw in arguably one of the two best rucks in the afl , we are looking good .

Beams is a game winner. His disposal is polished. Will add another string to our midfield that we lack, goal kicking mid. Plus don't underestimate is his experience/leadership for the young guns in our team.

 

[KillerMagpies]

Beams’ dad passed away early this year. He would have had to watch him waste away with cancer. It’s a tough thing to experience...
Despite this, he roared home to finish the season and finished top 6 in the Brownlow and top three in Lion’s B&F.
Not overpaid.
At all.
He’s a GUN.

 

[elpickle]

Im no academy point guru but I assume two picks in the 40s are close to pick 18

So no, we didnt overpay. Hes easily worth a future first rounder, especially one that should be 14+. It was a fair deal.

In 2009 we gave up our first second and third to get Jolly and Ball.

Basically Beams for 2019 first rounder + points that are roughly worth pick 41-42. Who knows what value our 2019 first round is worth but we probably back ourselves in to have a pick in the late teens anyway and come draft night we will find out if we needed those extra points or not.

EDIT: I also don't really know how these points thing works but thats just from looking at the points draft value which i just googled

 

[Matt_352]

For starters we were going to use 18 on IQ anyway. Plus picks back equate to Pick 24 as well

 

[13Beast]

Cheers for the picks. I think it was a good result for both clubs; we both got something we can use (I.e. good draft picks for Brisbane to keep rebuilding, and you guys get an AA midfielder who can hopefully get you that flag). Good luck next year, I was shattered to see WCE win. Growing up in Perth has made me hate that club than any other, oh, except maybe Essendon

 

[jatsad]

In reality, we only paid 1 future first round pick and pick 56.

This years 1st round is covered by pick 41 and 44 after the 20% discount.
It was always going to be used for points to get Quaynor so was never going to be a live pick.

So there you have it, not such a bad deal.

It falls apart if a bid doesn't come before pick 18 for Quaynor though but from what everyone is saying, that won't happen.

 

[donnie5]

We paid a fair price imo.

One thing we have to consider is, regardless of where our first pick fell this draft. We were always going to be taking Quaynor with that pick and Kelly with the next, our draft strategy is already set in stone really.

People are angry about two first rounders, fair enough. However, our first round is the very last pick in the first round. It’s barely a first round pick, it’s not like we’re giving a top 10 pick away.

We practically downgraded from 18 to 44 and upgraded from 56 to 44 which enables us to still pick the two kids we were always going to pick.

We’ve effectively traded next years first round pick for Beams in all honesty, I know it doesn’t say that on paper but when you factor everything in, that’s what we paid for Beams.

 

[THATSGOLD]

If we don’t win the 19 or 20 flag then yes.

 

[motr]

You missed a very important part of the trade, edited above

We had Beams prior to these trades, so you can’t count him. Unless you think the Lions have improved him as a player.