Ben Simmons will be an NBA bust

[Dundalis]

Agree that embiid is an absolute monster but imo (unless there is an obvious gulf between them) simmons will always be regarded as the better player because his game is "sexier"

Disagree. Most analysts in the NBA recognise Embiid's ridiculous upside. What will make Embiid marketable is that to go along with the dominant game, he has the extreme personality off the court. Same kinda deal as Shaq.

I'm not sure where you're pulling that number from on his mid-range and what you're defining as mid-range. He would have taken a handful of shots from 10-16 feet. That's not even a sample at all.

I definitely incorporate players' durability when I assess their worth. That is why I have Simmons over Embiid. There has never been a time in Embiid's career where he hasn't had constant injury red flags. With that said, Embiid definitely has more importance to Philly's overall team structure considering they have no real quality cover at center if he goes down, and have seemingly given up on Okafor. Their defense suffers greatly with him gone, and they return to lottery dwellars with potential if he injures himself again. That's an aside to discussing simmons though.

It's between 8-16 feet or something like that. He's taken over 30. Granted a lot would be the hook shot/floaters he's making, but if he gets that down consistently, it's as much a money shot as a mid range jumper as it is not defendable.

Fair enough on Embiid. But he's playing now, just like Simmons is after a year with injury, so I would personally assess them as they are and Simmons being the best prospect by the length of the straight is a bit much. Embiid hasn't had any issues with his foot for a while. The back issues in college were probably because of the guy growing, he's grown a legit 2 inches since he was drafted, and is 7'2. It's a concern, we'll see how much.

 

[Dundalis]

Simmons shooting percentages by distance (after 6 games).

0 - 3 feet: 66.7%
3 - 10 feet: 42.9%
10 - 16 feet: 37.5%
16 - 3pt: 0%
3pt: 0%

For some reason the data hasn't been updated for his latest game, where he shot 66.7% on 10/15 shooting. Nevertheless, it's clear that his mid-range game is still relatively weak, particularly beyond 16 feet.

He took and made 3 clear mid range jumpers against Houston.

 

[Drummer_19]

Simmons shooting percentages by distance (after 6 games).

0 - 3 feet: 66.7%
3 - 10 feet: 42.9%
10 - 16 feet: 37.5%
16 - 3pt: 0%
3pt: 0%

For some reason the data hasn't been updated for his latest game, where he shot 66.7% on 10/15 shooting. Nevertheless, it's clear that his mid-range game is still relatively weak, particularly beyond 16 feet.

His mid range shots when he's been balanced and pulled up have looked good, problem has been he tends to do these weird fadeaways sometimes and loses all momentum in his shot. As long as he continues to shoot them from a good balance/coming around picks when the defense sags and goes under and he can pull up it'll be alright and the right way to go about it.

 

[Dags21]

I think mid range shots are overrated, he is going to need a consistent three point shot more so..
Happy to be proven wrong but I’d say Lebron scores at th ring or at th arc, he goes alright :b


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[Drummer_19]

I think mid range shots are overrated, he is going to need a consistent three point shot more so..
Happy to be proven wrong but I’d say Lebron scores at th ring or at th arc, he goes alright :b


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You still need all the flexibility you can get.

Like of course 3s and shots at the rim are going to be mathematically the best kind of shots you can get, that's what we've seen Houston employ and have some success with, but the problem is in playoffs vs good defenses that can game plan accordingly it becomes too predictable and teams will shut it down as it becomes predictable. He doesn't need to take a high volume of mid range shots, but having that free throw line pull up when defenders go under (especially as the Sixers have started running Simmons post ups followed by someone coming over for a quick screen to allow him to turn the corner in the lane and guys will go under to try and cut him off at the rim which he adjusted yesterday and made 2 pull ups turning the corner as he had a ton of space) is just another thing teams have to worry about. Then they start to come over screens and he can blow by them and get to the rim, or force bad rotations and get open 3s for his teammates, get lobs for Embiid/Holmes.

Even someone as great as Durant who is an incredible shooter and scorer has it in his game, it doesn't need to be at a high volume but the more flexibility you can have the more everything will open up.

 

[DangerSloane]

Turn it up.

Haven't even seen how he adjusts to defences focusing on him yet.

You reckon defences aren't focusing on him yet?

 

[DangerSloane]

Simmons shooting percentages by distance (after 6 games).

0 - 3 feet: 66.7%
3 - 10 feet: 42.9%
10 - 16 feet: 37.5%
16 - 3pt: 0%
3pt: 0%

For some reason the data hasn't been updated for his latest game, where he shot 66.7% on 10/15 shooting. Nevertheless, it's clear that his mid-range game is still relatively weak, particularly beyond 16 feet.

Thats true, but hes getting what he wants at the rim, so why settle for outside jumpers?

 

[Drummer_19]

You reckon defences aren't focusing on him yet?

They're no doubt taking notice, but teams don't really have the time to do a ton of hard scouting and game planning with most guys (especially new guys) just with the way the schedule is with a game every other night or back 2 back and sometimes not practising 5v5 for a while because of it, it's always so quick to move on to the next one.

Having said that, it's going to be pretty hard to game plan against him when he's playing with Embiid and good 3 point shooters as well as just a general team philosophy that focuses on lots of passes and quick decisions.

 

[PP34]

You reckon defences aren't focusing on him yet?

They know who he is now but they don’t have a whole heap of footage and stats right now to use to build a defensive gameplan.

It will be hard to defend him no matter what due to the spacing Philly have. However right now he has the benefit of being a rookie and plenty of rookies look real good early while defences are caught unaware.

 

[calyam]

Thats true, but hes getting what he wants at the rim, so why settle for outside jumpers?

Not saying he should. What he is currently doing is certainly working.

But he still needs to work on an outside game because the best coaches will develop strategies to take him out of his comfort zone.

 

[Dags21]

You still need all the flexibility you can get.

Like of course 3s and shots at the rim are going to be mathematically the best kind of shots you can get, that's what we've seen Houston employ and have some success with, but the problem is in playoffs vs good defenses that can game plan accordingly it becomes too predictable and teams will shut it down as it becomes predictable. He doesn't need to take a high volume of mid range shots, but having that free throw line pull up when defenders go under (especially as the Sixers have started running Simmons post ups followed by someone coming over for a quick screen to allow him to turn the corner in the lane and guys will go under to try and cut him off at the rim which he adjusted yesterday and made 2 pull ups turning the corner as he had a ton of space) is just another thing teams have to worry about. Then they start to come over screens and he can blow by them and get to the rim, or force bad rotations and get open 3s for his teammates, get lobs for Embiid/Holmes.

Even someone as great as Durant who is an incredible shooter and scorer has it in his game, it doesn't need to be at a high volume but the more flexibility you can have the more everything will open up.

Some really good points there, versatility is important.. low post skills, mid range and deep three range will all be required
I have watched some footage of Lebron working post moves with hakeem but don’t see him use them in games all that much... I guess this is my point


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[DangerSloane]

Not saying he should. What he is currently doing is certainly working.

But he still needs to work on an outside game because the best coaches will develop strategies to take him out of his comfort zone.

100% he will need that mid range game AT LEAST.
Remember the kid has just played his 6th game of NBA.

Look at Giannis, similar type player and improving his outside game each year

 

[Dags21]

You still need all the flexibility you can get.

Like of course 3s and shots at the rim are going to be mathematically the best kind of shots you can get, that's what we've seen Houston employ and have some success with, but the problem is in playoffs vs good defenses that can game plan accordingly it becomes too predictable and teams will shut it down as it becomes predictable. He doesn't need to take a high volume of mid range shots, but having that free throw line pull up when defenders go under (especially as the Sixers have started running Simmons post ups followed by someone coming over for a quick screen to allow him to turn the corner in the lane and guys will go under to try and cut him off at the rim which he adjusted yesterday and made 2 pull ups turning the corner as he had a ton of space) is just another thing teams have to worry about. Then they start to come over screens and he can blow by them and get to the rim, or force bad rotations and get open 3s for his teammates, get lobs for Embiid/Holmes.

Even someone as great as Durant who is an incredible shooter and scorer has it in his game, it doesn't need to be at a high volume but the more flexibility you can have the more everything will open up.

Some really good points there, versatility is important.. low post skills, mid range and deep three range will all be required
I have watched some footage of Lebron working post moves with hakeem but don’t see him use them in games all that much... I guess this is my point


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[Dundalis]

Simply having a three point shot does NOT mean defenses will respect it. If a guy shoots in the low 30's on 3's, defenses will sag off that player regularly. They will do the mandatory close out, but ultimately take the chance of them making it to keep closer to guys in positions that have better chances of scoring. The "you need a three point shot" comment without qualification is overdone IMO. Would it be good if he had a 3 point shot? Yeah. But only really if he shot it at a fairly good percentage.

Ben should actually be most focused on finishing better at the rim (he's a good 10% below guys like Lebron and Giannis in that area), and making his free throws to at least his college rate than anything else. Just that alone would put him at around 20ppg.

Not to mention playing point guard in the NBA is incredibly difficult. I like that they've pretty much put him in that position offensively every game. He can improve a hell of a lot running the team on a consistent basis, which he never really did at any other level.

In regards to defenses zeroing in on him, they already sag off him, the only thing they could do is harass him more as the primary ballhandler, to test his handle, and I think they will. Like Giannis he's too physically overwhelming to contain driving to the hoop. I believe Houston did that towards the end of the last game, and Brown give Ben a rest having McConnell be the primary ball handler for a few plays.

 

[jdz101]

100% he will need that mid range game AT LEAST.
Remember the kid has just played his 6th game of NBA.

Look at Giannis, similar type player and improving his outside game each year

Mmm Giannis really struggled with that element when he played the Celtics the second time which is when I got the best look at him. He was on a much smaller player most of the time when Horford didn't switch onto him and he airmailed a few. He's a bigger nightmare than Simmons in the open court and going to the rim though so he and Simmons can afford that time to develop the middy.

 

[toxic]

 

[my name was taken]

Don't think teams will have a fun time "focusing" on him.

Might be able to stop him scoring but that's around 20ppg at the moment so you'd probably just give that up. A guy that's basically 7ft who can pass like he does is almost impossible to stop, especially when he is competent at dribbling the ball. he will just end up making his team mates better.

 

[Dags21]

Don't think teams will have a fun time "focusing" on him.

Might be able to stop him scoring but that's around 20ppg at the moment so you'd probably just give that up. A guy that's basically 7ft who can pass like he does is almost impossible to stop, especially when he is competent at dribbling the ball. he will just end up making his team mates better.

Having Embiid and Covington really suits th team in th half court, but Simmonds is soooo good to watch in transition.... really starting to look like a well balanced roster


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[PP34]

Don't think teams will have a fun time "focusing" on him.

Might be able to stop him scoring but that's around 20ppg at the moment so you'd probably just give that up. A guy that's basically 7ft who can pass like he does is almost impossible to stop, especially when he is competent at dribbling the ball. he will just end up making his team mates better.

You're not going to stop him, but you can certainly slow down the 76ers offence if he continues to struggle with the jumper.

Houston about a week ago showed what you can do when you force Simmons into being the go to guy down the stretch. He was indecisive and constantly dumping the ball to his teammates late in the clock so they could shoot some prayer.

I think it will come to a stage where teams worry more about limiting the three pointers he creates and giving him his buckets.

 

[dmac_55]

You're not going to stop him, but you can certainly slow down the 76ers offence if he continues to struggle with the jumper.

Houston about a week ago showed what you can do when you force Simmons into being the go to guy down the stretch. He was indecisive and constantly dumping the ball to his teammates late in the clock so they could shoot some prayer.

I think it will come to a stage where teams worry more about limiting the three pointers he creates and giving him his buckets.

Lebron James took a while to figure out how to close games against good teams too..

Our go to play when we need a bucket down the stretch should be to post Simmons on one side and have Jo Jo set a onball screen in the mid post for him.. This play is wild and really tough to stop as if you go under he is already one dribble from the hoop..

That Houston game was literally Brett brown calling an ISO for simmons with all 4 other players in the corners.. Ridiculous play call but hopefully Brett and the team learn.. Get your 2 best players in an action together and magic will happen

 

[DangerSloane]

Lebron James took a while to figure out how to close games against good teams too..

Our go to play when we need a bucket down the stretch should be to post Simmons on one side and have Jo Jo set a onball screen in the mid post for him.. This play is wild and really tough to stop as if you go under he is already one dribble from the hoop..

That Houston game was literally Brett brown calling an ISO for simmons with all 4 other players in the corners.. Ridiculous play call but hopefully Brett and the team learn.. Get your 2 best players in an action together and magic will happen

We saw the 2 man game in the closing minutes of the last game.
It worked really nicely. Dangerous when you've got a 6 foot 10 bloke that can pass like him, and Embiid a 7 foot bloke who can shoot the 3 if you leave him.

Then you have Redick/Covington/Bayliss etc camped on the arc and theres danger everywhere

 

[Yoda_]

Pfft, shoots at NBA average for FG%

Won't be a bust at all.

 

[jdz101]

Any danger of changing the title of this thread?

OP has had his fill at this point.

 

[dmac_55]

Pfft, shoots at NBA average for FG%

Won't be a bust at all.

has actually had 5 heaves at the end of quarters from past halfway too.. take these out and he is shooting 55.4%

Not afraid to take these shots unlike some guys in the L haha

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

He has officially quit LSU today and moved to Phoenix to get his body, mind and hopefully a jump shot ready for the NBA draft.

In my opinion, due to the fact he doesn't have a jump shot a 12 year old would be proud of, I think he will get quickly found out and end up being a 10 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists player in his NBA career.

I'm calling it now, he will be a massive bust.

My 3 reason he will be a bust.

• Poor attitude
• Won't take coaching direction
• Immature towards a professional environment.

Hope the LA Laker draft him and they stink it up for another 10 years.

Wow you know you're stuff...lol