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Discussion in 'Brisbane Lions' started by BrizzyBandit, Jul 5, 2017.
I do but we have been terrible at centre clearances for years.
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I think our issues is more spreading FROM a clearance than winning the clearance tbh. Rocky and Beams are good at the inside but lack burst and only have Zorko to cut opposition on the outside. When Zorko is off or being held out of the contest, we haven't had good burst. We need Taylor and someone like Cameron to start rotating into Zorkos roll or even as a second outside player close to the center bounce.
Rockliff was the number 1 clearance winner in the competition over the first 8 rounds or so before his injury. I don't think replacing him with a young player is the solution. Also we ranked 5th in the competition this year for centre clearances as a team. Not a bad effort considering our 2 best clearance winners were on 1 leg for most of the year. It's not as big a problem as you think
We actually finished the home and away season equal 4th for centre clearances won - but we could certainly improve on our ball movement and spread once we've won the ball in the centre. I do wonder if that's just a confidence/team cohesion issue? Better teams will often just back their teammate to win the ball and will then run and spread - or at least will react quicker once it looks like they're going to win it - so that confidence in your teammate may just be part of the evolution of a developing team?
Statistically (and I realise stats don't necessarily tell the full story), stoppage clearances are a bigger issue for us as we were only ranked 13th in that area. And given there are twice as many stoppage clearances in a game as centre clearances, it's probably holds greater weight. The other obvious area where we have real scope for improvement is contested footy, particularly ground ball gets where the ball is in dispute on the ground. We're by far the worst team in the comp in that area.
Was pretty surprised to learn that we are equal 4th for CC. Would be interesting to know what a "clearance " is because often we get first hands to the ball but then get tackled straight away. Also, feels like opposition spread a lot better and a lot quicker through the centre than we are. I actually think it is a big issue because it directly correlates with our inside 50 differential.
On another note, pretty sure Rockliff was very high in clearances but more for stoppages rather than centre clearances
FB: Daniel Rich, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner
HB: Alex Witherden, Daniel McStay, Sam Mayes
C: Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry
HF: Lewis Taylor, Josh Walker, Ryan Bastinac
F: Tom Rockliff, Eric Hipwood, Allen Christensen
R: Stefan Martin, Dayne Beams, Paddy Dow
I: Rhys Mathieson, Mitch Robinson, Ben Keays, Ryan Lester
I wouldn't expect too much from Dow for a couple of seasons. I don't think he has the bulk like Berry or SPP to come in and win contested footy in his first season.
Slow bench. I think you'd want at least one of Cox or Allison to provide some run (Cameron helps with that too if he comes)
According to Champion Data it's the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or a kick that clears the stoppage area.
Yup, I would expect Dow to start off as a defensive small forward or on the wing before transitioning into the middle.
Is 4th in centre clearances an absolute number?
If so our games total score (4400) was 200 more than the next most in the competition (Adelaide) and 900 more than Carlton who has the least total score. So that's somewhere between 30 and 150 more chances we've had at a centre clearance than every other team in the comp.
Good point. We come in at 17th in average centre clearance differential, according to Footywire (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2017&type=DA&sby=35&advv=Y)
It's a great point and one of the reasons I added the bit about stats don't always tell the full story. I've been meaning to come back to this and explore it in a bit more detail as raw clearance numbers can be misleading, but time, life etc hasn't been working in my favour.
We did indeed have more chances than anyone else at centre clearance - 634. That was 15 more than 2nd placed North Melbourne (619) and 115 more than last placed Carlton (519). We had the 2nd worst centre clearance differential and the 2nd worst % of centre clearances won - 46.8%. Only Hawthorn was below us at 46%. And even though we were ranked lower in terms of total stoppage clearances, we're more effective in that area winning just under 50% of those.
EDIT - please note that the 634 is simply centre clearances won plus opposition centre clearances won. There would be plenty of occasions where a centre bounce resulted in a repeat stoppage but I don't have access to that data so I've made do with what I have.
B: Gardiner - Andrews - Robertson
HB: Witherden - McStay - Mayes
C: Rich - Beams - Cutler
HF: Robinson - Schache - Bastinac
F: Christensen - Hipwood - Taylor
R: Martin - Rockliff - Zorko
I/C: Lester - Mathieson - McCluggage - Berry
Christensen didn't play a game due to injury. Robinson missed most of the year after a good start. Both of those player missing really hurt our midfield depth espcially with Rockliff and Beams missing games as well as playing half the year with buggered shoulders.
Add 1 or 2 of McKenna, Kennedy, and Miles along with a couple of first round draftees and I'd be pretty happy. Would add a lot more depth.
Not sure l would have Schache as best 22. Needs to earn it. I would have Walker in front for Round 1, has bailed us out multiple times a game with the long kick down the line.
Current list team, before trade and draft period
B: Gardiner - Andrews - Robertson
HB: Witherden - McStay - Mayes
C: Zorko - Beams - Rich
HF: Robinson - Walker - Taylor
F: Lester - Hipwood - Christensen
Fol: Martin - Berry - Rockliff
McCluggage - Allison - Bastinac Mathieson
in the mix for bench spots: Keays, Cox, Schache, McInerney
These are some guys who are still contacted for the next year or two and seem to be a bit on the outer at the seasons end.
Can you see any of these guys breaking back into the senior team next year and getting another contract?
They'll all be handy injury depth for the next year or two. I guess it also depends who we recruit in the off season.
Cutler should be in the best 22 IMO acknowledging his poor end to the season.
Cutler definitely. Has a lot of ability. The others will struggle though.
Bewick n paps, if they can develop consistency. Cutler seems to be a preseason champion but fails to deliver during games, dont think so. Dawson gets stage fright at top level and i dont think that will change. If frosts head comes good and he can learn to live in the pocket of the fwd he is marking, i think he can. And bell, if he gets fit, aggressive and interested again he definately can. Largely depth players tho.
Cutler doesn't need to fix much to return to the best 22.
I'd be pretty confident that Bewick will never develop the necessary level of consistency.
I'm interested in your views on this in a bit more detail if you can be bothered.
I am a fan of Cutler, but I wonder a bit about where he fits in and who he displaces. He has some magnificent attributes and he doesn't lack for confidence, but I wonder where he fits in the pecking order now.
IIRC he started this year playing more on the wing and rotating onto the HFF. I would've said that probably puts him in the mix with McCluggage, Allison, Taylor, Bastinac and Cameron if he comes. Cox might be another in that discussion if he can stay more involved in the game. I'm also not sure how Fagan will use Christensen, but I've been operating on the assumption that he'll take Barrett's spot. To my mind, Cutler would have a difficult time dislodging more than one or two of those guys from the pecking order.
Or on the half-back line, Rich, Mayes and Witherden look pretty well settled. I'm not sure how much he played in the backline for the NEAFL either, though I stand to be corrected on this. Based on his B&F finish, I'm thinking the coaches see Gardiner as a best-22 fixture for a while yet. Nick Robertson might be a bit vulnerable, but if he plays like he did in the first half of 2017 then I probably stick with him for his superior attention to his defensive responsibilities. If there's any substance to the McKenna rumors, he's another one who would slot in ahead.
Seemed to play on the wing mostly but his kicking and defensive game let him down. Has a different skill set to the other backs but metres gained is his strength.
That's my take too, which is why I have him behind Allison in the medium term. To my eye, Allison can also carry and bang it forward but I think he's shown a little more defensively. Taylor and Christensen are just better rounded players I think, and Fagan mentioned on that Roar Deal podcast (I think) that we're prioritizing more forward pressure so I'd expect Mitch Robinson and Cameron (if he comes) to be near the front of the queue on that basis.