Prediction Best 22, Round 1 2017

[Tulip]

People blowing their load over Spencer need to remember that he was splaying a pre-season game against a team who plays two part-time ruckmen, with the better one going down in the first quarter. He was essentially good against Tom Campbell.

 

[Andy_Mac]

People blowing their load over Spencer need to remember that he was splaying a pre-season game against a team who plays two part-time ruckmen, with the better one going down in the first quarter. He was essentially good against Tom Campbell.

The hate is strong...

Jake was dominating VFL level mid last year, admittedly I'm not sure how he finished up, but was again good on the week.

Yes the dogs have average ruck stocks, but jakethe snake was as good as Gawn through the midfield.

 

[saj_21]

I wouldn't have Spencer in our best 22 week in week out, but we definitely have the option of playing him alongside Gawn without Spencer being a complete liability.

 

[Xhoquelin]

I remember the 2015 GF between Eagles and Hawks. One thing that really hit me in the first quarter as that whenever Nic Nat rucked, the Eagles managed to get a clearance. Whenever Sinclair rucked, Hawthorn got a clearance.
I really don't see the point of playing a mediocre second ruck/forward just to allow the number one ruckman to rest forward more often. If it's a quality player like Rory Lobb who scores goals and only rucks when Mummy is on the bench(around 20-30 percent of the time), fair enough. Ceglar+ Hale was actually quite mediocre but Hawthorn's midfielders made up for that. Sinclair+ Tippett allowed Tippett to play at his best burn Sinclair was literally a telephone pole. Wasn't marking and wasn't scoring. Naitanui + Lycett doesn't work for me either.
A two ruck partnership must either include two rucks who can score 1-2 goals a game playing full forward, or one quality ruck who rucks 75 percent of the time and another ruck forward who scores 30+ goals a year and rucks only when the other ruckman is on the bench.
Therefore, I don't think Spencer, Gawn works. If it's the first scenario it doesn't work, Spencer can't play well enough as a key forward to kick goals and take marks every game despite one good performance vs Geelong a few years ago. Bulldogs game not a fair indicator as Gawn barely rucked.
Second scenario doesn't work either, why would we only ruck Gawn for 25% of contests? He is the best tap ruckman bar Sandilands and gives us such a huge advantage, forgoing that just for 30-40 goals a year up forward isn't worth it when we can create so many goals for our other players with Gawn in the middle.
Spencer can be trialled as a forward who rucks with Mitch King in the VFL but until he's kicking 2-3 every game with 15 hitouts he's not going to be good enough to change our team structure entirely.

I still think going with Watts who is surprisingly good in the ruck or Pedo or the athletic Frost is a lot better than using Spencer.
.

 

[harry000]

I remember the 2015 GF between Eagles and Hawks. One thing that really hit me in the first quarter as that whenever Nic Nat rucked, the Eagles managed to get a clearance. Whenever Sinclair rucked, Hawthorn got a clearance.
I really don't see the point of playing a mediocre second ruck/forward just to allow the number one ruckman to rest forward more often. If it's a quality player like Rory Lobb who scores goals and only rucks when Mummy is on the bench(around 20-30 percent of the time), fair enough. Ceglar+ Hale was actually quite mediocre but Hawthorn's midfielders made up for that. Sinclair+ Tippett allowed Tippett to play at his best burn Sinclair was literally a telephone pole. Wasn't marking and wasn't scoring. Naitanui + Lycett doesn't work for me either.
A two ruck partnership must either include two rucks who can score 1-2 goals a game playing full forward, or one quality ruck who rucks 75 percent of the time and another ruck forward who scores 30+ goals a year and rucks only when the other ruckman is on the bench.
Therefore, I don't think Spencer, Gawn works. If it's the first scenario it doesn't work, Spencer can't play well enough as a key forward to kick goals and take marks every game despite one good performance vs Geelong a few years ago. Bulldogs game not a fair indicator as Gawn barely rucked.
Second scenario doesn't work either, why would we only ruck Gawn for 25% of contests? He is the best tap ruckman bar Sandilands and gives us such a huge advantage, forgoing that just for 30-40 goals a year up forward isn't worth it when we can create so many goals for our other players with Gawn in the middle.
Spencer can be trialled as a forward who rucks with Mitch King in the VFL but until he's kicking 2-3 every game with 15 hitouts he's not going to be good enough to change our team structure entirely.

I still think going with Watts who is surprisingly good in the ruck or Pedo or the athletic Frost is a lot better than using Spencer.
.

Totally agree. Spencer has been a good ruckmen for year now and hasnt got a game. Dont think that will change this year. Hopefully we cvan continue to retain him as a handy back up.

 

[Tulip]

The hate is strong...

Jake was dominating VFL level mid last year, admittedly I'm not sure how he finished up, but was again good on the week.

Yes the dogs have average ruck stocks, but jakethe snake was as good as Gawn through the midfield.

Its not hate, FFS. This is his 10th year on the list, and he's never once played a game as good as any of Gawn's past 30. He's just not that good, and any surprise resurgence can't be judged against a double teamed Tom Campbell.

 

[Topkent]

Its not hate, FFS. This is his 10th year on the list, and he's never once played a game as good as any of Gawn's past 30. He's just not that good, and any surprise resurgence can't be judged against a double teamed Tom Campbell.

Yeah I thought at best he looked capable of holding the spot down if Gawns hurt without us losing the midfield battle. He really needs to learn how to play forward though

 

[Blackas87]

Its not hate, FFS. This is his 10th year on the list, and he's never once played a game as good as any of Gawn's past 30. He's just not that good, and any surprise resurgence can't be judged against a double teamed Tom Campbell.

Spencer's game against the Dog's 2015 was better than Gawn's against Brisbane 2016.

 

[Dark Avenger]

I remember the 2015 GF between Eagles and Hawks. One thing that really hit me in the first quarter as that whenever Nic Nat rucked, the Eagles managed to get a clearance. Whenever Sinclair rucked, Hawthorn got a clearance.
I really don't see the point of playing a mediocre second ruck/forward just to allow the number one ruckman to rest forward more often. If it's a quality player like Rory Lobb who scores goals and only rucks when Mummy is on the bench(around 20-30 percent of the time), fair enough. Ceglar+ Hale was actually quite mediocre but Hawthorn's midfielders made up for that. Sinclair+ Tippett allowed Tippett to play at his best burn Sinclair was literally a telephone pole. Wasn't marking and wasn't scoring. Naitanui + Lycett doesn't work for me either.
A two ruck partnership must either include two rucks who can score 1-2 goals a game playing full forward, or one quality ruck who rucks 75 percent of the time and another ruck forward who scores 30+ goals a year and rucks only when the other ruckman is on the bench.
Therefore, I don't think Spencer, Gawn works. If it's the first scenario it doesn't work, Spencer can't play well enough as a key forward to kick goals and take marks every game despite one good performance vs Geelong a few years ago. Bulldogs game not a fair indicator as Gawn barely rucked.
Second scenario doesn't work either, why would we only ruck Gawn for 25% of contests? He is the best tap ruckman bar Sandilands and gives us such a huge advantage, forgoing that just for 30-40 goals a year up forward isn't worth it when we can create so many goals for our other players with Gawn in the middle.
Spencer can be trialled as a forward who rucks with Mitch King in the VFL but until he's kicking 2-3 every game with 15 hitouts he's not going to be good enough to change our team structure entirely.

I still think going with Watts who is surprisingly good in the ruck or Pedo or the athletic Frost is a lot better than using Spencer.
.

Great post. Agree with everything except Frost's rucking abilities. I remember in his first few games for us before he hurt his foot & he was the preferred forward over Pedo. Looked completely lost at ruck contests & we got smashed in clearances.

 

[Proper Gander]

I think Watts is fine in the ruck from time to time. Unless we are delisting him because he is a fatso with an attitude problem, obviously.

 

[schmuttt]

I think Watts is fine in the ruck from time to time. Unless we are delisting him because he is a fatso with an attitude problem, obviously.

I don't like it because whilst he actually did alright in there, he is a predominantly outside player who isn't exactly known to be strong in the contest and he will get physically dominated in the ruck if he does it all season.

 

[TheCount]

I don't like it because whilst he actually did alright in there, he is a predominantly outside player who isn't exactly known to be strong in the contest and he will get physically dominated in the ruck if he does it all season.

I think the death of the 3rd man up rule is the end of Watts' ruck career personally. He was never in there to win taps, he was in there as an extra midfielder who could halve the contest at the centre bounce, and occupy the other ruckman around the ground while we sent someone 3rd man up. Now he'll get murdered around the ground going solo.

I get why everyone is so quick to flat out reject Spencer playing regularly, but based on one preseason game (so it means nothing obviously) it's a very strong option that will give the opposition some massive headaches.

 

[schmuttt]

I think the death of the 3rd man up rule is the end of Watts' ruck career personally. He was never in there to win taps, he was in there as an extra midfielder who could halve the contest at the centre bounce, and occupy the other ruckman around the ground while we sent someone 3rd man up. Now he'll get murdered around the ground going solo.

I get why everyone is so quick to flat out reject Spencer playing regularly, but based on one preseason game (so it means nothing obviously) it's a very strong option that will give the opposition some massive headaches.

I agree, I still maintain though for team balance we CANNOT play Spencer PLUS Weideman or Pedersen. We could play Hogan/Watts as the two talls with Gawn down there for 30-40% of the game, but if we play two rucks and 3 tall forwards we will lack run and our press will be rubbish.

I actually like the idea of two rucks because Gawn is such a huge threat in the F50 with his marking, but if we were to do it I'd break up the time in the ruck like this:

Gawn 60% ruck, 30% forward 10% bench
Spencer 40% ruck, 10% forward, 50% bench

Problem with Spencer is he is nowhere near as good as Gawn in the air and we'd restricting a rotation with Spencer spending so much time on the bench.

Having said all that I think the coaching group will be trying to fast track the Weeds development in 2017 like they did with OMac in 2016. He didn't get a lot of the ball against the Dogs but at worst he was halving contests, he is going to be even more of a threat than Hogan in the air in 2-3 years but obviously Hogan is far better around the ground. Whether this is a good move or not I'm not sure, I actually think it could pay off big time with OMac but playing up forward is bloody hard as a kid.

 

[TheCount]

I agree, I still maintain though for team balance we CANNOT play Spencer PLUS Weideman or Pedersen. We could play Hogan/Watts as the two talls with Gawn down there for 30-40% of the game, but if we play two rucks and 3 tall forwards we will lack run and our press will be rubbish.

I actually like the idea of two rucks because Gawn is such a huge threat in the F50 with his marking, but if we were to do it I'd break up the time in the ruck like this:

Gawn 60% ruck, 30% forward 10% bench
Spencer 40% ruck, 10% forward, 50% bench

Problem with Spencer is he is nowhere near as good as Gawn in the air and we'd restricting a rotation with Spencer spending so much time on the bench.

Having said all that I think the coaching group will be trying to fast track the Weeds development in 2017 like they did with OMac in 2016. He didn't get a lot of the ball against the Dogs but at worst he was halving contests, he is going to be even more of a threat than Hogan in the air in 2-3 years but obviously Hogan is far better around the ground. Whether this is a good move or not I'm not sure, I actually think it could pay off big time with OMac but playing up forward is bloody hard as a kid.

Oh yeah, no way known Spencer and Weid/Pedo can be in the same team, the ball will be coming out of our front half stupidly quick. I don't think you necessarily need to sit Spence on the bench for 50% game time tho. While he's never going to be a forward weapon, his 203cm, 105kg frame would cause some serious issues for a 3rd defender. Even if he doesn't mark it, thats what Jeffy is for.

On Weid, there were some really good signs from the kid, didn't do heaps, but that pack mark of his caused movement!

 

[harry000]

Oh yeah, no way known Spencer and Weid/Pedo can be in the same team, the ball will be coming out of our front half stupidly quick. I don't think you necessarily need to sit Spence on the bench for 50% game time tho. While he's never going to be a forward weapon, his 203cm, 105kg frame would cause some serious issues for a 3rd defender. Even if he doesn't mark it, thats what Jeffy is for.

On Weid, there were some really good signs from the kid, didn't do heaps, but that pack mark of his caused movement!

Accidentally clubbed the lady sitting in front of me in the back of the head when this happened.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

I would have thought that Spencer's role would be as a back up to Gawn in case of injury. I can't see him and Gawn playing too many games together in the regular season

 

[Sellout Scully]

While I don't think there's space for the Spence in the team, I do like how willing he is to put on pressure and go to ground and lay the tackle even though he's big and slowish. Wouldn't hurt if some of our other forwards gave this type of pressure.

 

[Sellout Scully]

Also, I don't rate Pedo much as a ruck.

 

[Dark Avenger]

People who think two rucks is a good idea have short memories. I remember three seasons ago when Jamar was still our number one ruckman & Gawn played predominantly as a forward. It was a good idea in theory as Gawn could take a good grab but we were killed on the rebound. And to those that bring up the 2015 Geelong game you need to remember Hogan & Pedo didn't play in that one.

 

[LeverPuller]

After two JLT games...

B: Jetta OMac Frost

Oscar has taken another step it seems and looks really assured in his kicking. Nev is obvious. Frost is at risk depending on what we want out of a 3rd tall - can definitely see JSmith/Wagner playing depending on matchups.

HB: Hibberd TMac Hunt

Hibberd the assured option and the potential 3rd tall. Hunt is even more manic.

C: Stretch Viney Melksham

Two true wingmen who are also tough with assured disposal. Melk plays...honestly if anyone is vulnerable it's Stretch.

HF: Petracca Hogan Watts

Jack is too good to languish on the pine because of a training issue. Hogan as CHF is a bigger nightmare woth his license to roam. Trac rotating through the middle as an impact player.

F: Garlett Weideman Kent

Weid offers as much as Pedo offensively but without the ruckwork, I'm all for doing an OMac and just pumping games into him. If one of Jeffy and Kent don't make it, BenKen plays.

R: Gawn Jones Tyson

I still feel that Tyson-Jones-Viney is our best inside set.

Int: Oliver Vince Lewis Salem

This was tough. The obvious man is Gus. Oliver can't be left out as he is far too important to the inside impact, Lewis and Vince as the wise heads and Salem is in red-hot form. Gus is squeezed out as a result, but is chomping at the guys in the side for a place as he really does deserve to play.

Bloody nice problem to have.

 

[The Dr]

After two JLT games...

B: Jetta OMac Frost

Oscar has taken another step it seems and looks really assured in his kicking. Nev is obvious. Frost is at risk depending on what we want out of a 3rd tall - can definitely see JSmith/Wagner playing depending on matchups.

HB: Hibberd TMac Hunt

Hibberd the assured option and the potential 3rd tall. Hunt is even more manic.

C: Stretch Viney Melksham

Two true wingmen who are also tough with assured disposal. Melk plays...honestly if anyone is vulnerable it's Stretch.

HF: Petracca Hogan Watts

Jack is too good to languish on the pine because of a training issue. Hogan as CHF is a bigger nightmare woth his license to roam. Trac rotating through the middle as an impact player.

F: Garlett Weideman Kent

Weid offers as much as Pedo offensively but without the ruckwork, I'm all for doing an OMac and just pumping games into him. If one of Jeffy and Kent don't make it, BenKen plays.

R: Gawn Jones Tyson

I still feel that Tyson-Jones-Viney is our best inside set.

Int: Oliver Vince Lewis Salem

This was tough. The obvious man is Gus. Oliver can't be left out as he is far too important to the inside impact, Lewis and Vince as the wise heads and Salem is in red-hot form. Gus is squeezed out as a result, but is chomping at the guys in the side for a place as he really does deserve to play.

Bloody nice problem to have.

Excellent rundown. I agree with all of it except Gus is too good not to play. He replaces Milkshakes for mine.

 

[Crusty Demon]

After two JLT games...

B: Jetta OMac Frost

Oscar has taken another step it seems and looks really assured in his kicking. Nev is obvious. Frost is at risk depending on what we want out of a 3rd tall - can definitely see JSmith/Wagner playing depending on matchups.

HB: Hibberd TMac Hunt

Hibberd the assured option and the potential 3rd tall. Hunt is even more manic.

C: Stretch Viney Melksham

Two true wingmen who are also tough with assured disposal. Melk plays...honestly if anyone is vulnerable it's Stretch.

HF: Petracca Hogan Watts

Jack is too good to languish on the pine because of a training issue. Hogan as CHF is a bigger nightmare woth his license to roam. Trac rotating through the middle as an impact player.

F: Garlett Weideman Kent

Weid offers as much as Pedo offensively but without the ruckwork, I'm all for doing an OMac and just pumping games into him. If one of Jeffy and Kent don't make it, BenKen plays.

R: Gawn Jones Tyson

I still feel that Tyson-Jones-Viney is our best inside set.

Int: Oliver Vince Lewis Salem

This was tough. The obvious man is Gus. Oliver can't be left out as he is far too important to the inside impact, Lewis and Vince as the wise heads and Salem is in red-hot form. Gus is squeezed out as a result, but is chomping at the guys in the side for a place as he really does deserve to play.

Bloody nice problem to have.

Stretch over Melksham every day of the week. Gus replaces Melksham, and it will depend on match ups whether Frost and Omac plays. Hibberd can play on 3rd tall depending on size. So Frost or Omac misses some weeks. When that happens, I'd guess Melksham then plays when we play against sides where we don't need 3 genuine tall defenders.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Yeah agree with the doc, Gus plays for one of your wingers. You don't really need two wingers, and Gus is a better kick than both stretch and melky. It will be seriously interesting to see how it goes!

 

[00Stinger]

Weideman out. Move Watts to FF and Gus to a HFF.
Weideman is not fully ready yet, still needs to develop a bit more imo

Sent from my SM-P555 using Tapatalk

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Doesn't look like Frost will figure early, Hunt and Hibberd are quite capable in the air and we're playing a zone defence so we could manage with 2 talls.