Analysis Best forward line heading into 2019 Season.

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Shaz2012

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If we play our cards right we might get him 20 or so games by 2025.
We’ll bring him through. I am not worried. I think the key to getting him games next year is to add speed to our 22 in general. If Fog can be relied on to swing back when our tall defenders have spells then he should be worth a spot on the bench in our best 22.

But he isn’t ahead of JJ, Tex or Lynch yet and we can’t play all 4 on the field at the same time.
 

Stiffy_18

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Fog will play at least 15 games in 2019.

Crows have been known to put the games into talented youngsters early. Fogarty played 10 games in his first season. We will be looking to get at least another 15 games into Fogarty in 2019.
 

Southerntakeover

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Fog will play at least 15 games in 2019.

Crows have been known to put the games into talented youngsters early. Fogarty played 10 games in his first season. We will be looking to get at least another 15 games into Fogarty in 2019.
We're only known for that by people who don't bother to check and think that 10 games is a heavy investment.

Here's the games played by people drafted before Fogarty. I've not looked into number of weeks available for selection due to injury, but note that Bonar in particular had pre-season difficulties.

Rayner - 22
Brayshaw- 17
Dow- 20
Davies-Uniake- 7
Cerra - 21
Stephenson- 26
Clark - 15
Coffield - 10
Naughton - 18
O'Brien - 18
Bonar - 4

10 games is not a significant investment of games, it's on the lighter end of the scale, and if we were to follow your suggested course we'd, after 2 seasons, have invested as many games as some teams did after one.

Edit: I should round out the first round perhaps:

Brander: 1
Ling: 0
Bailey: 12
Richards: 21
Higgins: 20
Starchevic: 4
 

Southerntakeover

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We’ll bring him through. I am not worried. I think the key to getting him games next year is to add speed to our 22 in general. If Fog can be relied on to swing back when our tall defenders have spells then he should be worth a spot on the bench in our best 22.

But he isn’t ahead of JJ, Tex or Lynch yet and we can’t play all 4 on the field at the same time.
This is precisely the point objected to.

We need to do away with this failed selection policy whereby we insist that young players will be given games if, and only if, they manage to entirely displace peaked and mediocre senior players through performance (said performance to be demonstrated in ways that are not clear, but involves not being given the opportunity to perform), and in which benefit of the doubt goes to senior players.

Fog is our future. We should be investing games into that so that by the time that we need him he's got a significant base of top level experience to rely upon.
 

Bovo

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We're only known for that by people who don't bother to check and think that 10 games is a heavy investment.

Here's the games played by people drafted before Fogarty. I've not looked into number of weeks available for selection due to injury, but note that Bonar in particular had pre-season difficulties.

Rayner - 22
Brayshaw- 17
Dow- 20
Davies-Uniake- 7
Cerra - 21
Stephenson- 26
Clark - 15
Coffield - 10
Naughton - 18
O'Brien - 18
Bonar - 4

10 games is not a significant investment of games, it's on the lighter end of the scale, and if we were to follow your suggested course we'd, after 2 seasons, have invested as many games as some teams did after one.

Edit: I should round out the first round perhaps:

Brander: 1
Ling: 0
Bailey: 12
Richards: 21
Higgins: 20
Starchevic: 4
Interesting stat. However different teams have different players playing different positions for different needs.

I think this comparison is misleading. There is no doubt that the Fog had engine tuning to be done. Not all players are made equally so he probably also had to work on a few areas.

Can you update the above list (only because I am on the bus/train) with players that played the same position as Fog. How many of those players had the same physique and style (can currently only play the same position as Fog). That position is a difficult one to play I would say.
 

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Shaz2012

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This is precisely the point objected to.

We need to do away with this failed selection policy whereby we insist that young players will be given games if, and only if, they manage to entirely displace peaked and mediocre senior players through performance (said performance to be demonstrated in ways that are not clear, but involves not being given the opportunity to perform), and in which benefit of the doubt goes to senior players.

Fog is our future. We should be investing games into that so that by the time that we need him he's got a significant base of top level experience to rely upon.
I’m not against giving Fog the gold pass at all. But he simply isn’t ready to take the place of those 3 talls. His fitness is miles off AFL standard for one. He is going to be a star and I can’t wait to watch him come through but he isn’t at that level yet.
 

Bovo

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I’m not against giving Fog the gold pass at all. But he simply isn’t ready to take the place of those 3 talls. His fitness is miles off AFL standard for one. He is going to be a star and I can’t wait to watch him come through but he isn’t at that level yet.
We don’t want to go all Neil Craig on him either aka Walker held back for a good couple of years. Hoping another solid pre-season will help his engine. Big men like him do take time. I also hope he is what we think he will be.
 

MRB37

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This is precisely the point objected to.

We need to do away with this failed selection policy whereby we insist that young players will be given games if, and only if, they manage to entirely displace peaked and mediocre senior players through performance (said performance to be demonstrated in ways that are not clear, but involves not being given the opportunity to perform), and in which benefit of the doubt goes to senior players.

Fog is our future. We should be investing games into that so that by the time that we need him he's got a significant base of top level experience to rely upon.
You want to give him games, but not at the expense of his health and risking potential injury. He was clearly gassed, even in the SANFL during the second half of the year. They'll need to monitor his work load while he's still getting his fitness base up to AFL standard. It's not a matter of just chucking him out there, he needs to be physically capable as well.

And Pyke has shown he's willing to back youngsters in. He did it with Wayne, he did it with Gov, he did it with Fog early this year, he's done it with Charlie and Atkins despite them having some poor form at times too.
 

Southerntakeover

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So this is your argument?! Get called out on comparing apples and oranges and you come back with that?!

Not surprised in the slightest!
That's particularly rich coming from the guy who's entire approach was to misrepresent the nature of the investment we'd made.

If you want to make an argument, make it yourself. No one but you has the obligation to do that.
 

Southerntakeover

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I’m not against giving Fog the gold pass at all. But he simply isn’t ready to take the place of those 3 talls. His fitness is miles off AFL standard for one. He is going to be a star and I can’t wait to watch him come through but he isn’t at that level yet.
Second pre-season down, he doesnt develop a tank?

Why do we think that our young players are substantially less able to do basic things like run than other clubs draftees?
 

Shaz2012

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We don’t want to go all Neil Craig on him either aka Walker held back for a good couple of years. Hoping another solid pre-season will help his engine. Big men like him do take time. I also hope he is what we think he will be.
Not at all. But as I said, next year isn't the year to go all in on Fog and trade out JJ as was suggested. The thing that holds him back the most is his fitness. That is what held back both Fog and Murphy last year. I can't say what his fitness will be like by round 1, but I am just guessing it still has a ways to go. Similar with Greenwood, he needed time to build it up and it was much better last year. Hopefully in 2019 we can start to see the potential that Hugh can offer with an improved fitness.

I will be holding my breath with each training report over the summer, hoping that Fog, Murphy, Greenwood, Brad Crouch and Tex don't have any injury setbacks during pre-season. If they can all get full pre-seasons in then I will be quite positive going into next season.
 

Shaz2012

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Second pre-season down, he doesnt develop a tank?

Why do we think that our young players are substantially less able to do basic things like run than other clubs draftees?
From where he started, I don't think he develops a big enough tank after the second pre-season. Hope I am wrong. But you don't gamble and trade out JJ like you suggested.
 

Southerntakeover

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No, to some degree this is an attempt to have your cake and eat it too.

The initial proposition was that Fog shouldnt play because we can't pick him in the same team as Jenkins and Jenkins should get priority. I objected to that proposition. If the issue is crowding then we indeed should have traded Jenkins.

If the substance of the argument is now something different, i.e. Fog isnt able to play because he's apparently unable to sustain movement for extended periods of time, I think that's still crap, but it might draw a different response.

Let's just lock on one argument can we, without changing the goal posts.
 

Shaz2012

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No, to some degree this is an attempt to have your cake and eat it too.

The initial proposition was that Fog shouldnt play because we can't pick him in the same team as Jenkins and Jenkins should get priority. I objected to that proposition. If the issue is crowding then we indeed should have traded Jenkins.

If the substance of the argument is now something different, i.e. Fog isnt able to play because he's apparently unable to sustain movement for extended periods of time, I think that's still crap, but it might draw a different response.

Let's just lock on one argument can we, without changing the goal posts.
No. Both are true. We can't play JJ, Tex, Lynch and Fog in the same forward line. At least, not on the field at the same time. Players need rotations, so he may be a good option on the bench.

But the second part is also true. He doesn't have the fitness yet and unlikely to gain it with one more pre-season. So he may not even be the right choice to keep on the bench. I'd like to see us try though. His fitness almost certainly rules him out of being first choice ahead of a fully fit JJ, Tex or Lynch at this stage. It might take another year, or even two, but not too far in the future he will be close enough to ask the question, should we be playing him ahead of one of these guys in order to properly develop him. He needs to get an AFL standard fitness base before we can even ask that question.
 

Southerntakeover

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No, I don't think it is a bit of both. I think it's very much one or the other.

Either he's simply not fit enough to play, which is in no way dependent upon who's in front of him or he's fit enough to play but not currently displacing established players.

If the suggestion is that he could play, but only if we moved those players in front of him, then he should play. We should move those players.
 

Shaz2012

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No, I don't think it is a bit of both. I think it's very much one or the other.

Either he's simply not fit enough to play, which is in no way dependent upon who's in front of him or he's fit enough to play but not currently displacing established players.

If the suggestion is that he could play, but only if we moved those players in front of him, then he should play. We should move those players.
Ok, lets assume his fitness is fine. How do you justify playing him in place of JJ for 2019. He hasn't reached that level of output. Are you just going to sacrifice 2019 so we can develop one player?
 

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