JHF1870
Premium Platinum
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2007
- Posts
- 23,471
- Reaction score
- 17,911
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
I'm working on my project again to rank the best players for the season and compare and contrast to the Coaches votes and Brownlow. Also going to again use this for All Australian purposes.
I'm interested to see which players breakout and and rank the best 50 players by season end.
The Brownlow is flawed but it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the changes this year. The coaches award is a reasonably good measure but it's still midfield biased.
I created a system last year and have modified it throughout finals, and more again this season. It's a measure of overall impact in games. I have adjusted the stats for forwards slightly, less for rucks and much more for defenders who now have a better chance of scores that match midfielders. I've adjusted the scores to better match the benchmarks for some of the elite games over the years and it's more robust than last season.
I've included more defensive stats to finely tune the quality of defensive games, midfielders are punished for turnovers and clangers promoting quality of disposal. Hitouts to advantage slightly reduced as scores were uneven. I've also added a small capped negative score for each point a team loses by to ensure that players in losing teams need incrementally bigger games.
I copped a fair bit of negativity last season for floating this but I put a lot of time into this so I'm happy to put people on ignore if they're going to be overly argumentative or trash talk my project.
Assuming uninterrupted seasons I'm going to predict Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden, Christian Petracca, Bontempelli, Butters, Ed Richards, Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Noah Anderson, Clayton Oliver to potentially be top 10.
By all means feel free to discuss your best players for the season round by round.
I'm interested to see which players breakout and and rank the best 50 players by season end.
The Brownlow is flawed but it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the changes this year. The coaches award is a reasonably good measure but it's still midfield biased.
I created a system last year and have modified it throughout finals, and more again this season. It's a measure of overall impact in games. I have adjusted the stats for forwards slightly, less for rucks and much more for defenders who now have a better chance of scores that match midfielders. I've adjusted the scores to better match the benchmarks for some of the elite games over the years and it's more robust than last season.
I've included more defensive stats to finely tune the quality of defensive games, midfielders are punished for turnovers and clangers promoting quality of disposal. Hitouts to advantage slightly reduced as scores were uneven. I've also added a small capped negative score for each point a team loses by to ensure that players in losing teams need incrementally bigger games.
I copped a fair bit of negativity last season for floating this but I put a lot of time into this so I'm happy to put people on ignore if they're going to be overly argumentative or trash talk my project.
Assuming uninterrupted seasons I'm going to predict Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden, Christian Petracca, Bontempelli, Butters, Ed Richards, Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Noah Anderson, Clayton Oliver to potentially be top 10.
By all means feel free to discuss your best players for the season round by round.
(not you)
