List Mgmt. Best young key forward in the game

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rogiebear93

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May 17, 2017
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I reckon I'll take the guy who's also kicking goals over the guy who isn't.

When Franklin kicked 100+ as a 21-year-old, were you like "nah everyone, it's not about goals"?

I reckon you might have been quite impressed by the goals.
Jeez that's a hell of a strawman though. You know your argument is fragile when you have to use the last bloke to kick 100 goals in order to make a point.

SYL is making a point that though goals are good, it's important to note that a forward might not be converting them but is doing everything else right. If you're doing everything else right, the goals will come eventually - and given Hawthorn's woeful midfield effort this year it's important to note that it might be a difference in supply and not quality between Mitchell Lewis and other forwards.
 

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Sweet Jesus

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Jeez that's a hell of a strawman though. You know your argument is fragile when you have to use the last bloke to kick 100 goals in order to make a point.
Your above post makes no point.

More accurately, it's a young forward who kicked a ton of goals and it's a Hawthorn player. I'm sure when Franklin was in full flight as a 21-year-old, Hawthorn supporters weren't indifferent to the fact he was kicking a shitload of goals.

Would Franklin have been equally as impressive had he kicked 30 that year instead of 100+?

SYL is making a point that though goals are good, it's important to note that a forward might not be converting them but is doing everything else right. If you're doing everything else right, the goals will come eventually - and given Hawthorn's woeful midfield effort this year it's important to note that it might be a difference in supply and not quality between Mitchell Lewis and other forwards.
No you're right. Let's not get "fixated" on goals. In fact, let's omit them from any comparison entirely. That makes much more sense.
 

Mt Isa Mustang

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Nov 23, 2019
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Ben King, Harry McKay and Oscar Allen are the best.

Maybe it's the one year out of the game with a knee but Max King is falling behind Ben, his kicking for goal continues to let him down as well as his almost marks.
Yet max always gets the reps from media

After max kicked 5 last week the
Commentators couldn’t shut up about how Ben should try and match his brother during the gc game.

Didn’t watch st kilda and port but I’d be very surprised if the same was said in reverse.
 

Morris Major

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Your above post makes no point.

More accurately, it's a young forward who kicked a ton of goals and it's a Hawthorn player. I'm sure when Franklin was in full flight as a 21-year-old, Hawthorn supporters weren't indifferent to the fact he was kicking a shitload of goals.

Would Franklin have been equally as impressive had he kicked 30 that year instead of 100+?

No you're right. Let's not get "fixated" on goals. In fact, let's omit them from any comparison entirely. That makes much more sense.
Lewis and Kosi are young forwards in a bottom 4 side.

Aaron Naughton is flanked by Bruce and English and getting fed by the most dominant midfield in the comp.

Those factors alone would have a huge impact on skewing their goal stats, regardless of how talented they are.
 

rogiebear93

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Your above post makes no point.

More accurately, it's a young forward who kicked a ton of goals and it's a Hawthorn player. I'm sure when Franklin was in full flight as a 21-year-old, Hawthorn supporters weren't indifferent to the fact he was kicking a shitload of goals.

Would Franklin have been equally as impressive had he kicked 30 that year instead of 100+?

No you're right. Let's not get "fixated" on goals. In fact, let's omit them from any comparison entirely. That makes much more sense.
You're failing to see how the comparison is ridiculous, when you're trying to make a qualitative comparison you need to control for differences in supply particularly when there's not a massive difference in goals. Franklin is a ridiculous example to bring up because he was many standard deviations ahead of where any other key forward was and is for his age and therefore makes a crappy comparison to anyone really.

Also - they were omitted from one example but not others, and even with goals the numbers bear out that Lewis isn't quite as far behind his peers based on their best period of continuous football. That changes somewhat in 2021 given McKay and Naughton's performances in particular, but you need to control for the fact that the ball isn't getting to Lewis anywhere near as often and the quality of delivery isn't there.

McKay is performing better than Lewis is this season, there's no doubt about it, but how much of that can be attributed to the fact that he's targeted more and that Carlton are averaging a lot more I50s than Hawthorn? Some, definitely.
 

Sweet Jesus

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Lewis and Kosi are young forwards in a bottom 4 side.

Aaron Naughton is flanked by Bruce and English and getting fed by the most dominant midfield in the comp.

Those factors alone would have a huge impact on skewing their goal stats, regardless of how talented they are.
It doesn't "skew the stats". They just haven't kicked many goals.
 

Strapping Young Lad

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It therefore seems weird to omit the statistic in a comparison. Almost like you're trying to flatter a player who's kicked fewer goals.
Or better yet, it was a basic way to highlight the amount of times Lewis is getting his hands on the ball, how many contested marks, score involvements, tackles etc he has comparatively, as he’s been forgotten by those who only see goals.
 

Sweet Jesus

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You're failing to see how the comparison is ridiculous, when you're trying to make a qualitative comparison you need to control for differences in supply particularly when there's not a massive difference in goals.
A qualitative comparison? How so?

Also - they were omitted from one example but not others
I responded to the example that omitted them.

So the best way to judge a water collection system is by the volume in the tank, but the amount of rainfall is irrelevant?
I'll leave you to ponder your tortured water tank analogy.
 

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Strapping Young Lad

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For Sweet Jesus only, because it’s pretty clear you’re going to take it down path eventually.

No one is saying Lewis or Kosi are the best young key forwards. No one is saying goals don’t matter.

The point was that they’re tracking along ok for young talls with not many games under their belt and not much support.
 

Sweet Jesus

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For Sweet Jesus only, because it’s pretty clear you’re going to take it down path eventually.

No one is saying Lewis or Kosi are the best young key forwards. No one is saying goals don’t matter.

The point was that they’re tracking along ok for young talls with not many games under their belt and not much support.
And ignoring goals helps you make that case.
 

Scotland

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While he is awesome, he has the luxury of being the 3rd tall not playing on either of the 2 best tall defenders.
Definitely benefits but is #1 for goals, marks inside 50 and contested marks for us this year. Teams are giving him plenty of attention when he is forward. Harry McKay for example gets less help but is targeted more often.

Oscar Allen easily.

If he played for a Vic club, they wouldn't stop taking about him.
I think Allen is getting plenty of press. Brad Johnson has been on his bandwagon since he was drafted and Jono Brown said on Saturday he could be a top 2 player in the comp in a year or two.

Where I think the Allen hype drops off is that he's only 192cm/87kg. McKay (24) is ruckman sized and starting to really impact games. The Kings (still 20) are pretty raw. It's easy to see upside in those modern prototype key forwards. But then Hipwood is 24, Casboult is 31, Peter Wright is 25, Taberner is 28 etc. and those guys haven't taken off and become stars of the comp.
 

The Hobo

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Definitely benefits but is #1 for goals, marks inside 50 and contested marks for us this year. Teams are giving him plenty of attention when he is forward. Harry McKay for example gets less help but is targeted more often.



I think Allen is getting plenty of press. Brad Johnson has been on his bandwagon since he was drafted and Jono Brown said on Saturday he could be a top 2 player in the comp in a year or two.

Where I think the Allen hype drops off is that he's only 192cm/87kg. McKay (24) is ruckman sized and starting to really impact games. The Kings (still 20) are pretty raw. It's easy to see upside in those modern prototype key forwards. But then Hipwood is 24, Casboult is 31, Peter Wright is 25, Taberner is 28 etc. and those guys haven't taken off and become stars of the comp.
If he continues to clunk contested marks, it doesn't matter if he's 163cm.

Fact is that a lot of the players you've mentioned are being rated purely on potential, or what people think they're going to achieve.

Apart from a handful of games, the King twins have not actually done much.

Allen has dominated games, and really pushing for the mantle of number 1 forward in a side with other good forwards.

King was unsighted last night against Port. Yes the delivery was average, but they had plenty of ball going into the 50.

McKay is 100% in the conversation as he has actually started to show something but is also older than Allen.
 

Ambrosia

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Definitely benefits but is #1 for goals, marks inside 50 and contested marks for us this year. Teams are giving him plenty of attention when he is forward. Harry McKay for example gets less help but is targeted more often.



I think Allen is getting plenty of press. Brad Johnson has been on his bandwagon since he was drafted and Jono Brown said on Saturday he could be a top 2 player in the comp in a year or two.

Where I think the Allen hype drops off is that he's only 192cm/87kg. McKay (24) is ruckman sized and starting to really impact games. The Kings (still 20) are pretty raw. It's easy to see upside in those modern prototype key forwards. But then Hipwood is 24, Casboult is 31, Peter Wright is 25, Taberner is 28 etc. and those guys haven't taken off and become stars of the comp.
Allen looks taller than 192cm from what I can see. Looks much more like the 195/6cm genuine KPF. Every chance he’s grown.
 

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