Bet with Joel

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
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Just listened to his interview on SEN and looked into him a bit more. Has anyone signed up to his picks? He comes across as any other tout, but could be legit?
I have set my own one up.

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99 Problems

All Australian
Aug 4, 2016
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Every Corp will have accounts flagged that use his service. They’ll keep the ones that lose elsewhere and a couple that are more disciplined willing to get set for smaller amounts so they know they can turn the price off. Then they’ll let everyone else take the unders, and plenty of his subscribers will because they’ve paid for the info and don’t want to miss out.

That’s without even being able to verify if his info is actually any good to start with. That’s just how every tout service ends up. The ones that actually do win very quickly grow to a point where no one can get the price sent out. Throw in no minimum bet on sports and I can’t see much value to it.
 

chrisdon16

@AFLsystembet
Mar 20, 2013
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Every Corp will have accounts flagged that use his service. They’ll keep the ones that lose elsewhere and a couple that are more disciplined willing to get set for smaller amounts so they know they can turn the price off. Then they’ll let everyone else take the unders, and plenty of his subscribers will because they’ve paid for the info and don’t want to miss out.

That’s without even being able to verify if his info is actually any good to start with. That’s just how every tout service ends up. The ones that actually do win very quickly grow to a point where no one can get the price sent out. Throw in no minimum bet on sports and I can’t see much value to it.
Ok. So let's hypotheticaly say Joel is the best tipster on the planet. What are his options now? He can't get begs down because he's banned, and he will eventually lose subscriptions. Where to from there?
 

99 Problems

All Australian
Aug 4, 2016
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Ok. So let's hypotheticaly say Joel is the best tipster on the planet. What are his options now? He can't get begs down because he's banned, and he will eventually lose subscriptions. Where to from there?
Lots and lots of people will make money off his tips, it’s just most of those will lose it back elsewhere like they were before subscribing. Every corporate knows exactly what his plays are. Let’s say he has 1000 subscribers, how many of those do you think a Corp will let on to what they know is a long term winning set when they don’t legally have to let a single person on?

They simply pick and choose who and for how much. I’m not sure if he still is, but I’m tipping he never advertised on his sign up page that he was a corporate affiliate who gets his own clip from those who sign up?
 

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iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
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They simply pick and choose who and for how much. I’m not sure if he still is, but I’m tipping he never advertised on his sign up page that he was a corporate affiliate who gets his own clip from those who sign up?
Speaking of - how has Chief, the most stable genius, not set up some huge affiliate slush fund where the money he gets in kick backs is used to fund a Big Footy punting board punters club.

Be better Chief.
 

burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
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See chrisdon's post above for why a winning punter would sell tips.
And how many touts do you think are actually winning punters banned by books?

My point rings true, buys tips = go broke. They'll probably go broke anyway but may as well save on subscription fees

It's predominantly scammers and snake oil salesmen good at marketing
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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And how many touts do you think are actually winning punters banned by books?

My point rings true, buys tips = go broke. They'll probably go broke anyway but may as well save on subscription fees

It's predominantly scammers and snake oil salesmen good at marketing
Yeah which is why you need to do a shitload of due diligence before you subscribe to any of them. But the idea that if you are good punter you shouldn't need to get paid for your tips is just wrong. If you're sharp then options will dry up fast to make any serious money from betting
 

FallingLiefs

Premium Gold
Jan 30, 2013
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I think the tip sellers would be sacrificing POT for some less volatile income. The ups and downs are very hard to mentally and if poorly managed financially deal with especially if doing it solely for a living, the ability to take other peoples money to get through those bad periods would be very useful.

I don't buy the "they cannot get on argument" you can easily get enough money on to earn a good wage as long as betting on correct markets. If they betting on small markets like props where that is the case and it is a struggle to get bets on then they not a real punter.
 

burge13

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Hamingja

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I don't buy the "they cannot get on argument" you can easily get enough money on to earn a good wage as long as betting on correct markets. If they betting on small markets like props where that is the case and it is a struggle to get bets on then they not a real punter.
If you are betting professionally then I would think you would need to get down $500/$1,000 units minimum. You might be able to do that on races with the minimum bet rules, even if you have to do it across multiple bookmakers, but even on liquid sports markets I think they would can you pretty quick.

If I'm betting on tennis head to head with $50 units and I'm up 20 units then the bookies aren't likely going to care much but if I'm making $1,000 bets and up 20 units how long do you think I would last.....
 

FallingLiefs

Premium Gold
Jan 30, 2013
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If you are betting professionally then I would think you would need to get down $500/$1,000 units minimum. You might be able to do that on races with the minimum bet rules, even if you have to do it across multiple bookmakers, but even on liquid sports markets I think they would can you pretty quick.

If I'm betting on tennis head to head with $50 units and I'm up 20 units then the bookies aren't likely going to care much but if I'm making $1,000 bets and up 20 units how long do you think I would last.....
Probably long enough to discover betfair. It's harder to win there but that's the point. In all codes you migrate to the highest turnover markets.
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
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Probably long enough to discover betfair. It's harder to win there but that's the point. In all codes you migrate to the highest turnover markets.
It takes me a few hours and 4 or 5 different matches to get my $50 on at betfair. No liquidity until the jump. RIP pinnacle.
 

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