Racing Betfair - The Smart Money

[Bontempele]

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[54Dogs]

Sorry if this response is a bit cryptic but you'll probably struggle to get too much information because there is a finite pool of edge money available on BF. That said in broad terms there are multiple factors at play in BF pre-post markets including but not limited to:

- Betfair traders
- Pro punters
- Market manipulators
- Corps laying off
- Scalpers / arbers
- Winning punters limited elsewhere
- Pre-post backer / in-play layers

plus a few actual punters

I saw that article a while ago and it scratches the surface of what is required to win on BF, but if you use that alone it will not be enough. All of the factors above move the market but only some are actually related to whether the horse will win. There are sharks absolutely everywhere.

It sounds like you have BF software so you have a fighting chance, without that it is pointless. But unless you have a rock solid edge where you are ahead of the market consistently backing shorteners on BF will not be enough.

 

[juss]

Bit of a read, but this is something I'd love to find if other people are doing and be able to talk to them about it.

I started using Betfair about a year ago, at first to get better AFL odds and then for some racing cash back abuse. I then stumbled upon the follow article and was instantly amazed.

Lay Back With Betfair | In-Play Betting & Trading | Betfair Hub

Wondering how to bet in-play and trade on horse racing and sport? Lay Back can educate punters on how to bet in-play and trade on the Betfair Exchange.

www.betfair.com.au

The article is quite lengthy, but if theres one thing to take from it:

“Well, I suppose anything which is intuitive is hard to explain. Just because something firms in the market doesn’t mean that it wins but I am looking for the ‘smart’ money on Betfair; there’s a few specific things I look for, most notably aggression on a price at any given time.
“The over-riding notion is that I want to be on the ones who are trying to win the race and the market is often the best indicator of this,” he said.


This article was the turning point for me. I started watching pre-race horse racing markets on Betfair and quickly noticed that runners that decreased in price sharply as the gates were being loaded almost always were right in the finish, exactly what the guy interviewed said. As I've studied this more and more, ive began to recognize patterns in the way he talks about. Obviously no two markets are identical, but you can encounter very similar scenarios over the course of the day. Use of betfair live's graphs have been greatly beneficial as I've realized an aggression in volume is probably actually more important than the price being traded. BetAngel has also been of great assistance, as you can visually see the changing prices in real time of all the different runners at once.

I started tracking all the bets I placed with this technique, and found for some reason it doesn't really work in NSW or SA. VIC has been extremely succesful, and some QLD races get read so well by betfair you would almost think they are fixed.

I would love to hear if anyone else doing this or similar and hopefully we're able to connect.

This is known as a plunge, and is easily visible on many betting platforms, its often also spoken about as "late mail". In racing its usually tied to market influence from the big players who have ties to the industry, inside information from trials, horses well "graded" that were previously held back, inside info from trainers, etc.

 

[FallingLiefs]

This is known as a plunge, and is easily visible on many betting platforms, its often also spoken about as "late mail". In racing its usually tied to market influence from the big players who have ties to the industry, inside information from trials, horses well "graded" that were previously held back, inside info from trainers, etc.

Not really. As sad as it is, "they" is just robots and the big boys waiting for volume.

 

[iluvparis]

Robots love a milkshaked galloper and one that's been going no good at home

 

[juss]

Not really. As sad as it is, "they" is just robots and the big boys waiting for volume.

Yes there are APIs involved too and bot trading.
But don't underestimate the inside info and market manipulation in the racing industry. It's dodgy as hell.