Betting advice

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Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
Any help with this would be much appreciated.

I recently jumped on board with the tab and had some early success. Point starts with the top NRL teams is particularly lucrative in my experience.

But I find it's very tough to actually make any consistent moolah. Aside from obvious mismatches it seems to be just total luck of the draw. Is there any advice some of the more experienced betters here could give me? Thanks 👍
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,200
7,316
AFL Club
Collingwood
Any help with this would be much appreciated.

I recently jumped on board with the tab and had some early success. Point starts with the top NRL teams is particularly lucrative in my experience.

But I find it's very tough to actually make any consistent moolah. Aside from obvious mismatches it seems to be just total luck of the draw. Is there any advice some of the more experienced betters here could give me? Thanks 👍
What is your specialty? sports? horses?
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,011
5,090
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
1. Identify where your competitive advantage is going to be. What specific markets do you feel most confident on. For me it’s prop markets, you might like H2H’s, lines, totals. Whatever it is concentrate on this area
2. Shop around for the best odds, you need an account with every bookie possible, always look for the best odds.
3. Create a spreadsheet & record all your bets. At the end of every week/fortnight/month do some accounting and work out how much you are winning/losing & what bets specifically have won/lost. Would you make the bet again?
4. Learn when markets will be posted, they are usually up at similar times week to week and the best odds are usually found when markets are fresh. Easier to spot inaccuracies before they are hit.
5. Never pay/listen to touts

That’s about all I got. Good luck
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
1. Identify where your competitive advantage is going to be. What specific markets do you feel most confident on. For me it’s prop markets, you might like H2H’s, lines, totals. Whatever it is concentrate on this area
2. Shop around for the best odds, you need an account with every bookie possible, always look for the best odds.
3. Create a spreadsheet & record all your bets. At the end of every week/fortnight/month do some accounting and work out how much you are winning/losing & what bets specifically have won/lost. Would you make the bet again?
4. Learn when markets will be posted, they are usually up at similar times week to week and the best odds are usually found when markets are fresh. Easier to spot inaccuracies before they are hit.
5. Never pay/listen to touts

That’s about all I got. Good luck
Well that's excellent advice. Thanks for the help
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
I've been looking at NRL stats for example, and what I've found is that there are three or four fairly consistent teams and pretty much everyone else is totally unpredictable. Points starts, head to head etc. So I might just concentrate on that sort of stuff while I learn my way around. I've been keeping a tally of all of my bets , contrasted to those I didn't follow through on. It's certainly not a science but the patterns are there. Melbourne storm seem fairly safe I have to say
 

Cash is King

All Australian
Suspended
Sep 8, 2016
963
1,923
AFL Club
Carlton
You need to identify teams that are overvalued and undervalued. A team on a good run is going to be overvalued like the storm.

You know in the next couple of weeks they are going to drop one or two you just have to determine which one.

A team that’s been stinking it up is bound to put in a competitive game at some point also. You have to figure which spot to back such a team.

Stay away from the storm. It’s impossible to just keep on winning and covering spreads no matter who you are. They are due for a letdown as they’ve been up for so long.
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
You need to identify teams that are overvalued and undervalued. A team on a good run is going to be overvalued like the storm.

You know in the next couple of weeks they are going to drop one or two you just have to determine which one.

A team that’s been stinking it up is bound to put in a competitive game at some point also. You have to figure which spot to back such a team.

Stay away from the storm. It’s impossible to just keep on winning and covering spreads no matter who you are. They are due for a letdown as they’ve been up for so long.
Yea that's true. Although it's frustrating cos I didn't put money on them for precisely your reasoning two weeks ago and they smashed the titans. So I thought if I back them against the broncos it would only be out of the emotion of being annoyed at not backing them the week before. And they creamed the broncos lol.... So no bets on those two games and Im just waiting for them to lose now so I can start putting money on them again
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
7,200
7,316
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yea that's true. Although it's frustrating cos I didn't put money on them for precisely your reasoning two weeks ago and they smashed the titans. So I thought if I back them against the broncos it would only be out of the emotion of being annoyed at not backing them the week before. And they creamed the broncos lol.... So no bets on those two games and Im just waiting for them to lose now so I can start putting money on them again
Don't bet on emotion!! Do not try and second guess things. You will have inevitable losses, don't let that throw you off. If you decided to stay out and the bet won it doesnt matter. That bet is independent of the next bet.
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
Don't bet on emotion!! Do not try and second guess things. You will have inevitable losses, don't let that throw you off. If you decided to stay out and the bet won it doesnt matter. That bet is independent of the next bet.
The tab must make so much money from people looking to recoup losses. It's addictive!!! But I'm doing little bets until I get as good as kieron foran lol
 

kingston67

Draftee
Dec 10, 2012
13
1
AFL Club
Essendon
As a relative newby to NRL line betting one of the things I found important to learn was that some line differences were more significant than others due to the rugby scoring system eg a line moving from 2.5 to 3.5 had minimal impact but 3.5 to 4.5 was more significant ( an exact margin of 3 being highly unlikely but 4 being an unconverted try way more likely).

As with any betting having a consistent sustainable staking plan so that 1 bad loss doesnt wipe out your bank is always important.
 

WWII

Rookie
Dec 21, 2019
45
26
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs

Somebody linked me to this recently. Plenty of good advice in there
 

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54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,622
4,453
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
There's a few things you should consider which are absolute must haves if you want to be a consistent winner

- You need a niche where you have a sustainable edge over the market. It needs to be a niche because nobody can consistently beat a 10-20% rake and make coin across a broad range of options. The challenge with this is invariably if using corps that edge will be shutdown, hence the need to keep it sustainable through options like BF or TS. Because of variance there's a few challenges in knowing if you have an edge or not. Stay well within your means until you have enough data to be sure, then always keep monitoring as an edge can be removed quite quickly.

- Stay in your lane. If you have a winning niche that's where you play, and it's the only place you play. Takes incredible discipline but if you want to win you need to treat it as a business not as fun / excitement.

- Track your results, and track them accurately / daily. Without this you don't know whether you have an edge or not.


If you don't have all of the above, treat it as a hobby, enjoy it and acknowledge you will lose over a period of time so stay within your means. Nothing wrong with losing at punting, it's a hobby like having a drink or going to the movies. They all take time and create enjoyment. Just need to be really clear on whether you're a recreational punter or a winning punter.
 
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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
859
1,024
AFL Club
Adelaide
If you’re betting NRL I suggest listening to the Trypod. They’ve been tipping NRL at 63% win rate this season and 61% from 2015-2019. They’ve got a wealth of knowledge and it’s worth sussing out what they’ve got to say.

I don’t follow NRL, but blindly follow their tips and have made plenty along the way.

Have been able to learn plenty from them which I’ve been able to successfully apply to other sports.

All free might I add
 

54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,622
4,453
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
If you’re betting NRL I suggest listening to the Trypod. They’ve been tipping NRL at 63% win rate this season and 61% from 2015-2019. They’ve got a wealth of knowledge and it’s worth sussing out what they’ve got to say.

All free might I add
Is that they've been tipping 63% H2H, or at the line?
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
859
1,024
AFL Club
Adelaide
60+% at the line for 5 yrs is pretty solid, will have a look cheers.
They hit team totals, half time lines, totals as well so will sometimes have 3-5 tips on one game and then none on others. Never tip under $1.80. Only downfall is that their tips get smashed pretty quickly so there is sometimes a bit of movement.
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
If you’re betting NRL I suggest listening to the Trypod. They’ve been tipping NRL at 63% win rate this season and 61% from 2015-2019. They’ve got a wealth of knowledge and it’s worth sussing out what they’ve got to say.

I don’t follow NRL, but blindly follow their tips and have made plenty along the way.

Have been able to learn plenty from them which I’ve been able to successfully apply to other sports.

All free might I add
Much appreciated. I'll definitely check it out. Cheers 👍
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
Some great advice here lads. Do you guys do what I do and shadow bet alot? Just to get a feel for the ebbs and flows. No one predicted Richmond's hiding of the doggies a couple of weeks ago I reckon, nor the pitiful warriors winning two NRL games in a row. Or the broncos losing against cronulla with five minutes to play and two tries up. The momentum swings are crazy.

But as many of you have pointed out, the roosters just roll on nicely, same with Melbourne and the panthers. AFL going fairly swimmingly too. Lots of good coin to be made within those teams and margins, notwithstanding the fact that good teams can sometimes have an off day.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
413
734
AFL Club
Collingwood
I have a well known punter around here. I move markets, alter outcomes. All that jazz.

Best advice I can give is to make a plan, stick to it, get your bets on, and never watch the game you are betting on. Do something else and check your balance later.

Removing emotions is the battle in this game.

Many are called, few are chosen.
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
354
529
AFL Club
Fremantle
NonPhixion, do you get "Something went wrong. Transaction History couldn't be loaded. Try again by refreshing." when trying to download the spreadsheet from the Sportsbet transaction section; or anyone else?

I feel like it might be fugazi...
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,011
5,090
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
NonPhixion, do you get "Something went wrong. Transaction History couldn't be loaded. Try again by refreshing." when trying to download the spreadsheet from the Sportsbet transaction section; or anyone else?

I feel like it might be fugazi...
i just had a go, downloaded fine, but its a horrible spreadsheet lol, messy & doesn't really give you any information. Much better just relying on your own.
 

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