Betting advice

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,480
2,277
AFL Club
Essendon
i just had a go, downloaded fine, but its a horrible spreadsheet lol, messy & doesn't really give you any information. Much better just relying on your own.
You can request your transaction history from every bookie but a lot of them are deliberately confusing and don't include column totals and you have to do all the sums yourself. It's a very poor situation. Pointsbet is the worst.
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
859
1,024
AFL Club
Adelaide

This one has the best spreadsheet. Has an option to include different punters you follow and you can track bet types and sports to see what you’re good/bad at.

It can be a lot of work using the spreadsheet depending on how many bets you put on. These days I just track deposits/withdrawals and balances for each bookie it my phone notes
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,011
5,090
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
And how do you guys work out staking amount?

Kelly criterion or just "what feels right"?

don’t think Kelly criterion is really needed, I don’t personally use it. Usually bet 1 unit per play as Paris said & then be a bit flexible if there is a bigger advantage or you are throwing a dart at something at longer odds. no need to get too technical with staking formulas. The whole purpose of having units just makes it easier to account
 

54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,622
4,454
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
don’t think Kelly criterion is really needed, I don’t personally use it. Usually bet 1 unit per play as Paris said & then be a bit flexible if there is a bigger advantage or you are throwing a dart at something at longer odds. no need to get too technical with staking formulas. The whole purpose of having units just makes it easier to account
I think that's fair enough. KC is the optimal staking strategy if you are confident in your edge over market price, but the initial challenge is establishing what your true edge is. Without that KC is throwing staking darts at a random possible edge which may not exist.
 

Bucking Bronco

Team Captain
May 5, 2014
354
529
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think that's fair enough. KC is the optimal staking strategy if you are confident in your edge over market price, but the initial challenge is establishing what your true edge is. Without that KC is throwing staking darts at a random possible edge which may not exist.
The problem I have with Kelly is that if you have something that is 80% chance of winning at $2 odds it recommends to bet 60% of your bank roll, and yet if it's the very same bet but the odds are $7, for example, it recommends just 15% more at 75%.

Obviously 60% bankroll is far too much just in general, and most use fractional Kelly, but even still to be betting only 15% more on something that has 5 times better odds (with the same probability) just doesn't add up to me, but I'm pretty dumb sometimes...

It's like 6 bets in one comparing it to the $2 one and it's recommending only 15% larger bank roll?

Makes no sense.
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
14,524
15,478
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
The problem I have with Kelly is that if you have something that is 80% chance of winning at $2 odds it recommends to bet 60% of your bank roll, and yet if it's the very same bet but the odds are $7, for example, it recommends just 15% more at 75%.

Obviously 60% bankroll is far too much just in general, and most use fractional Kelly, but even still to be betting only 15% more on something that has 5 times better odds (with the same probability) just doesn't add up to me, but I'm pretty dumb sometimes...

It's like 6 bets in one comparing it to the $2 one and it's recommending only 15% larger bank roll?

Makes no sense.
I don't mind that, once error gets introduced into the practical method it really controls the volatility and chance for ruin backing long priced chances. Even if you are good you don't want to be consistently backing longshots at the same volume as shorties. I actually further reduce it on long shots personally.
 

Wedge McManus

Club Legend
Jan 16, 2019
1,937
1,797
AFL Club
West Coast
Tell you what lads, if you're having a punt on a cowboys match don't go near the cowboys win with two minutes to go if Kyle feldt is on the field. Deadset he just came up with the dumbest play I've seen to hand the Rabbitohs the win. Save your cash
 

Cash is King

All Australian
Suspended
Sep 8, 2016
963
1,923
AFL Club
Carlton
Tell you what lads, if you're having a punt on a cowboys match don't go near the cowboys win with two minutes to go if Kyle feldt is on the field. Deadset he just came up with the dumbest play I've seen to hand the Rabbitohs the win. Save your cash
He can live off 2015 as far as all of North Queensland is concerned. Without him, they don’t have a premiership.
 

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