Betting advice

[JuniorWatch]

i just had a go, downloaded fine, but its a horrible spreadsheet lol, messy & doesn't really give you any information. Much better just relying on your own.

You can request your transaction history from every bookie but a lot of them are deliberately confusing and don't include column totals and you have to do all the sums yourself. It's a very poor situation. Pointsbet is the worst.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Betting Tracker Excel Worksheet - Australia Sports Betting

Australia Sports Betting offers an Excel betting tracker spreadsheet that is free to download. Three versions of the spreadsheet are available: basic, standard and advanced. All three versions are free. Users of OpenOffice should use the OpenOffice Calc version of the spreadsheet. A Google...

www.aussportsbetting.com

This one has the best spreadsheet. Has an option to include different punters you follow and you can track bet types and sports to see what you’re good/bad at.

It can be a lot of work using the spreadsheet depending on how many bets you put on. These days I just track deposits/withdrawals and balances for each bookie it my phone notes

 

[Bucking Bronco]

And how do you guys work out staking amount?

Kelly criterion or just "what feels right"?

 

[iluvparis]

And how do you guys work out staking amount?

Kelly criterion or just "what feels right"?

Simplest is to just decide what your bank is (how much you can afford to lose) and bet 1% of it each bet.

 

[NonPhixion]

And how do you guys work out staking amount?

Kelly criterion or just "what feels right"?

don’t think Kelly criterion is really needed, I don’t personally use it. Usually bet 1 unit per play as Paris said & then be a bit flexible if there is a bigger advantage or you are throwing a dart at something at longer odds. no need to get too technical with staking formulas. The whole purpose of having units just makes it easier to account

 

[54Dogs]

don’t think Kelly criterion is really needed, I don’t personally use it. Usually bet 1 unit per play as Paris said & then be a bit flexible if there is a bigger advantage or you are throwing a dart at something at longer odds. no need to get too technical with staking formulas. The whole purpose of having units just makes it easier to account

I think that's fair enough. KC is the optimal staking strategy if you are confident in your edge over market price, but the initial challenge is establishing what your true edge is. Without that KC is throwing staking darts at a random possible edge which may not exist.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I think that's fair enough. KC is the optimal staking strategy if you are confident in your edge over market price, but the initial challenge is establishing what your true edge is. Without that KC is throwing staking darts at a random possible edge which may not exist.

The problem I have with Kelly is that if you have something that is 80% chance of winning at $2 odds it recommends to bet 60% of your bank roll, and yet if it's the very same bet but the odds are $7, for example, it recommends just 15% more at 75%.

Obviously 60% bankroll is far too much just in general, and most use fractional Kelly, but even still to be betting only 15% more on something that has 5 times better odds (with the same probability) just doesn't add up to me, but I'm pretty dumb sometimes...

It's like 6 bets in one comparing it to the $2 one and it's recommending only 15% larger bank roll?

Makes no sense.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The problem I have with Kelly is that if you have something that is 80% chance of winning at $2 odds it recommends to bet 60% of your bank roll, and yet if it's the very same bet but the odds are $7, for example, it recommends just 15% more at 75%.

Obviously 60% bankroll is far too much just in general, and most use fractional Kelly, but even still to be betting only 15% more on something that has 5 times better odds (with the same probability) just doesn't add up to me, but I'm pretty dumb sometimes...

It's like 6 bets in one comparing it to the $2 one and it's recommending only 15% larger bank roll?

Makes no sense.

I don't mind that, once error gets introduced into the practical method it really controls the volatility and chance for ruin backing long priced chances. Even if you are good you don't want to be consistently backing longshots at the same volume as shorties. I actually further reduce it on long shots personally.

 

[Wedge McManus]

Tell you what lads, if you're having a punt on a cowboys match don't go near the cowboys win with two minutes to go if Kyle feldt is on the field. Deadset he just came up with the dumbest play I've seen to hand the Rabbitohs the win. Save your cash

 

[checkraiseulite]

what cost them the game (i was also on cows) was not running the last try under the posts - but instead grounding it in the corner.

the last 2 minutes were also diabolical.

 

[Cash is King]

Well I rely on the martingale system @ $1.90 or more. I mean you eventually have to hit right

 

[Cash is King]

Tell you what lads, if you're having a punt on a cowboys match don't go near the cowboys win with two minutes to go if Kyle feldt is on the field. Deadset he just came up with the dumbest play I've seen to hand the Rabbitohs the win. Save your cash

He can live off 2015 as far as all of North Queensland is concerned. Without him, they don’t have a premiership.

 

[juss]

Any help with this would be much appreciated.

I recently jumped on board with the tab and had some early success. Point starts with the top NRL teams is particularly lucrative in my experience.

But I find it's very tough to actually make any consistent moolah. Aside from obvious mismatches it seems to be just total luck of the draw. Is there any advice some of the more experienced betters here could give me? Thanks

I'm pretty keen into using betting as an investment to make some additional coin, and treat it as a hobby, but a lucrative hobby., so when anyone wants to talk betting strategies and tips I'm always keen.

Aside from the obvious don't bet what you can't afford to lose:

1. Know what you want to get out of punting, bit of fun on some wild multis when watching the footy? Bit of extra weekend coin? Have a crack at a few $50 > $1000 challenges? Turn pro and only source of income? All of those objectives would require a different strategy, staking plan, and bankroll management. If you don't know what your goal is, you won't achieve it. All of those are fine too, nothing wrong with a bit of money thrown away (that won't break the bank) at a pub if you just want to have a laugh with the boys. If you want to make consistent coin, you need to consider points 2,3,4, 5 and 6.

2. Track results. If you want to make money, this is essential, and it will link into point 3. In order to make money you need to know where your edge is, where you tend to win and where you tend to lose, what's your ROI? How many bets are you placing per day/week? What's your win % etc. I use Bettingmetrics Pro version, gives me all the data I need so that I can do what's required in point 3. If you don't know how you're tracking, you won't see leaks you should avoid or areas you are beating the market that you should be focusing on.

3. Find your edge and stay in your lanes. You might be the world's expert on Hungarian Women's badminton, or first goal scorer bets in AFL, or anything in between. Once you've found your edge, stay in your lanes, I like betting on tennis because it's on so often and I enjoy watching it, but I just cannot find a winning market long term. Over 289 recorded bets in the last 12 months on Tennis, I have a 54% win rate but a -3.88% ROI. I can't seem to beat the market. Nor Baseball where I'm -13.41% over 72 bets. Horse Racing? Sitting at +66.60% ROI this Spring Carnival over 29 bets. Aussie Rules and NRL I'm +9.91% and +7.50% over season 2020 from 81 and 51 bets. Stay in your lanes once you've found your market edge.

4. Discipline is key, if you don't have it, you lose. Has cost me big. I crushed the AFL/NRL season last year, threw it all away on the BigBash because I was bored over summer. You must be able to refuse a bet and not chase losses. My summer losses on cricket were entirely out of boredom and poor discipline. I even dabbled in Ice Hockey and have a shocking -71.64% ROI there. Why? Relates very closely to staying in your lane once you've found your edge, but extends to discipline and not chasing losses, as well as patience.

5. Value in sports betting is more subjective than objective. Even the most advanced predictive models in the world cant capture every variable and the most complex variable of them all: people. It's not a coin flip where we know it's a 50/50 outcome, the probabilities are not static and set. I might see a game as 75/25 one way, you might see it as 40/60 the other way. Just because the market prices an event a certain way, doesn't mean it's correct. Be wary of "tips" from the market or the public on what's "good value", generally the public are mug punters and losing punters. So many mugs mistake high odds for "good value", but you need to make your own assesment. It's very easy to find winners, but don't just back any winner, if the odds don't represent decent value based on your assesment, don't take it, and don't take marginal value, because you are not a casino and you will likely be wrong, look for a bigger edge than just taking a 50/50 at $2.08, you likely aren't that good (none of us are) that you can beat the market at that edge. Do you know the volume/number of bets you'd need to place over a long time to make any decent money at such a small margin? Casinos/Bookies get away with tiny edges over millions of bets, you don't have that volume potential to beat variance so you need bigger edges.

6. Value is found from qualitative and quantitative data. Use both. There is plenty of results and data websites for all sports where you can get stats and numbers for just about anything, this is quantitative data. Generally, people seem to get better results from quantitative data, but don't discount qualitative data. I gain a lot of insight from watching sport. I see form and how teams/individuals are playing, I see improvement/decline, I see what the conditions are, the weather, I see team changes, injuries, I see excuses as to why something might have been just bad luck but still a good bet. I know how certain teams/players might handle each other's game or play against each other. If you don't watch sport, you might not know that team/player X struggles against team/player Y even though they are ranked far higher and might have more wins on the board, but still be vulnerable to them. You don't get this qualitative data if you only look at the numbers. I will admit the quantitative data is probably more reliable, but you must consider both.

 

[54Dogs]

Excellent post mate, nailed it