Betting on most free kicks

Deejay2

Draftee
Jun 29, 2019
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1
AFL Club
Sydney
I'm wondering if any betting agencies allow punters to bet on which team will receive the most free kicks. Not so much because I want to do it, but because it would be interesting to investigate why or why not it is happening. (My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere - please refer me to that place).
 

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GROTTO

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I'm wondering if any betting agencies allow punters to bet on which team will receive the most free kicks. Not so much because I want to do it, but because it would be interesting to investigate why or why not it is happening. (My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere - please refer me to that place).
Im presuming probably because the team with the home ground advantage almost always invariably leads the Free Kick count.
 

Viceregal

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2006
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Be funny if someone turned up a memo from inside a betting company stating that allowing bets on which team would get the most free kicks was not an option as we already know that before the game starts.
 

Deejay2

Draftee
Jun 29, 2019
6
1
AFL Club
Sydney
Im presuming probably because the team with the home ground advantage almost always invariably leads the Free Kick count.
So let's say a betting agency factors in a 60% (home team) to 40% (away team) probability. Well that in itself should raise serious concerns. In fact anything other than 50/50 should raise serious concerns. A lot of people complain about games being decided by umpiring decisions and we can dismiss it as personal bias towards their own team, but if the betting agencies' odds favoured either team it would warrant a formal investigation.
 

Lavender Bushranger

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So let's say a betting agency factors in a 60% (home team) to 40% (away team) probability. Well that in itself should raise serious concerns. In fact anything other than 50/50 should raise serious concerns. A lot of people complain about games being decided by umpiring decisions and we can dismiss it as personal bias towards their own team, but if the betting agencies' odds favoured either team it would warrant a formal investigation.
Why?

You'd just put your house on the Bulldogs every week.
 

Lensen

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So let's say a betting agency factors in a 60% (home team) to 40% (away team) probability. Well that in itself should raise serious concerns. In fact anything other than 50/50 should raise serious concerns. A lot of people complain about games being decided by umpiring decisions and we can dismiss it as personal bias towards their own team, but if the betting agencies' odds favoured either team it would warrant a formal investigation.
lol what
Some teams playing styles lend themselves to giving away more frees long term than others
 

RoarLike44In24

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Apr 27, 2019
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Brisbane Lions
You've answered your own question as to why there isn't. That market is totally out of their control, you can't predict it even a little bit. That would be comparable to a toss of a coin where bookies will offer you 1.85-1.95 either way depending on the bookie (both teams identical odds). That is a market that guarantees a long term win for the bookie whilst being truly random.

Not so for free kicks. We know some teams give away more frees than others but that data simply isn't reliable enough for a market like that.

The closest I think you would ever get is if a bookmaker put up a market like 'Total Free Kicks in the match' and it was a total for the whole match both sides as an overs/unders combined rather than H2H. But even that would be pretty fraught.
 

Deejay2

Draftee
Jun 29, 2019
6
1
AFL Club
Sydney
You've answered your own question as to why there isn't. That market is totally out of their control, you can't predict it even a little bit. That would be comparable to a toss of a coin where bookies will offer you 1.85-1.95 either way depending on the bookie (both teams identical odds). That is a market that guarantees a long term win for the bookie whilst being truly random.

Not so for free kicks. We know some teams give away more frees than others but that data simply isn't reliable enough for a market like that.

The closest I think you would ever get is if a bookmaker put up a market like 'Total Free Kicks in the match' and it was a total for the whole match both sides as an overs/unders combined rather than H2H. But even that would be pretty fraught.
Before I can agree with you you will have to show me clear evidence that there is no predictability.
 

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Bunk Moreland

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Sep 22, 2011
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Of course you can predict the free kick count to some accuracy. There’s trends in everything. Some teams get more than others for plenty of reasons, primarily how well and the way they play.

In any case the betting companies don’t give a s**t how accurate their markets are, that’s not how “bookmakers” work these days. They put up any old price and then just refuse to deal with any punter other than mugs having “fun bets”.

I think the AFL would simply tell the betting companies it’s a no-go because of “the look”.
 

RoarLike44In24

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Apr 27, 2019
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Before I can agree with you you will have to show me clear evidence that there is no predictability.
Could you be slightly less arrogant? I'm giving you my opinion- I didn't go and find peer-reviewed journal articles on the matter.

If I asked you who was going to win out of West Coast and Gold Coast you would have a heap of data to work with and full knowledge that both teams are TRYING to win.

You don't have any of that certainty with umpires paying free kicks. They are responding to events unfolding in real time, not trying to win the free kick count for a side.

You would have to know about individual umpires and their free kick tendencies and that's all before you even get into how a team plays. We know Richmond circa 2017-8 played a style of footy conducive to giving away a lot of kicks. That's a factor and not one that betting agencies could fully appreciate and price adequately.

As mentioned before you could either price them at equal odds (1.90 each etc) or put one team slightly ahead but that creates insane value for the other team.

I'm sure if they could find a way to price things totally in their favour they would do it but H2H doesn't work. They do this in goal scorer markets - they will offer you really stingy odds on forwards kicking multiple goals even though it actually isn't that common because they dont offer an inverse market.

So in that way i could envision a market like 'Team A to have 10 free kicks' , 20 free kicks etc as separate standalone markets without an inverse but definitely not H2H (possibly a 'Race to' market because the addition of a third option 'neither' enhances the bookies margin.
 

Deejay2

Draftee
Jun 29, 2019
6
1
AFL Club
Sydney
Could you be slightly less arrogant? I'm giving you my opinion- I didn't go and find peer-reviewed journal articles on the matter.

If I asked you who was going to win out of West Coast and Gold Coast you would have a heap of data to work with and full knowledge that both teams are TRYING to win.

You don't have any of that certainty with umpires paying free kicks. They are responding to events unfolding in real time, not trying to win the free kick count for a side.

You would have to know about individual umpires and their free kick tendencies and that's all before you even get into how a team plays. We know Richmond circa 2017-8 played a style of footy conducive to giving away a lot of kicks. That's a factor and not one that betting agencies could fully appreciate and price adequately.

As mentioned before you could either price them at equal odds (1.90 each etc) or put one team slightly ahead but that creates insane value for the other team.

I'm sure if they could find a way to price things totally in their favour they would do it but H2H doesn't work. They do this in goal scorer markets - they will offer you really stingy odds on forwards kicking multiple goals even though it actually isn't that common because they dont offer an inverse market.

So in that way i could envision a market like 'Team A to have 10 free kicks' , 20 free kicks etc as separate standalone markets without an inverse but definitely not H2H (possibly a 'Race to' market because the addition of a third option 'neither' enhances the bookies margin.
Whatever. You've missed the point and I can't be bothered arguing with you.
 

Guju

Rookie
Mar 18, 2019
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Hawthorn
I'm wondering if any betting agencies allow punters to bet on which team will receive the most free kicks. Not so much because I want to do it, but because it would be interesting to investigate why or why not it is happening. (My apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere - please refer me to that place).
IMHO, if the betting agencies had bets for free kicks for every match, then it would force the AFL and their umpires to be fairer, as there would be more focus, heat and analysis on free kicks paid, rather than just taking the umpires own interpretation as gospel.
 

Vintage

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Mar 5, 2006
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IMHO, if the betting agencies had bets for free kicks for every match, then it would force the AFL and their umpires to be fairer, as there would be more focus, heat and analysis on free kicks paid, rather than just taking the umpires own interpretation as gospel.
What’s unfair about an unequal free kick count?

And isn’t setting odds mostly about moving them with the money that comes in? There’s enough info to frame the market, and then move with the money placed on each team - agency almost always wins whatever the outcome provided they understand simple maths
 

Hawk_francais

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Sep 20, 2015
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The idea of betting on footy annoys me full stop.

It's a scandal that the league has a betting partner, and I can't wait til it's just a shameful memory.
 

Andre

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Sep 3, 2002
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Never, AFL has to approve all betting markets and obviously never would due to the blindingly obvious match fixing that would follow.
The AFL wouldn't approve it, because of the free kick discrepancies that exist already. If it was approved no bookie is going to give 50/50 odds that a travelling team is going to get more frees then West Coast. That'd be a nice loss earner for them over the season. And a consistent starting line of West Coast to get more (just as the most obvious example, other sides are more likely to get frees as well) would be harder to sweep under the carpet, as 'It's just chance' like the AFL currently does.
 
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